1999 TdF, What if?

[sopas]

Ok, we go back to 1999, the first TdF won by Lance Armstrong with an overall lead of about 7 minutes over Alex Zülle. Now, let's add the following three premises:

1. Zülle is not cut by the wind in that early stage in which he lost 6 minutes to LA.

2. Marco Pantani is not expelled from the Giro y arrives at the TdF in good shape just like the previous year when he won.

3. Jan Ullrich does not have knee injury and can participate in the TdF in good shape.

Question: Does Lance Armstrong still win the 1999 TdF? What is your podium choice?

 

[limerickman]

Ully injury was a real blow for the 1999 TDF.
Look how well Ully rode the Vuelta in 1999 : he was superb

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRUFfFZMPbA&feature=related"]YouTube- jan ullrich vuelta zf 99[/ame]


[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1sx2mfb65E&feature=fvw"]YouTube- Jan Ullrich jbtmobile[/ame]


I didn't expect Zulle to challenge especially after all that messing around the previous season with Festina.


I'm not sure that the 1999 route would have suited Pantani :


And remember LA had a great 1998 Vuelta.

 

[steve]

Jiménez rode past ulrich and olano like they were standing still

During stage eight of the 1999 Vuelta a España Jiménez attacked the 23% grade of the Angliru in rain and fog to catch Pavel Tonkov's long solo break at the line and take the stage in a two-man sprint

 

[swampy1970]

I really don't think there's any "what if's" to be had.

When you win the prologue, both time trials and dismantle the field in no uncertain terms on the first big mountain stage, it's a bit like asking "has a herring ever eaten a shark?"

Just for the sake of seeing some carnage:

Pwned
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oiCIJ2JewPE"]YouTube- Lance Armstrong Sestriere Climb 1999[/ame]

 

[sopas]

Thanks for the videos.

It is nice to see, at 3:36 on the first one Indurain giving the trophy to Ullrich.

Regarding Angliru- it is probably the toughest climb in the World. Do a search on google and see the profile, slopes at 22-24%!!! Contador crushed them all last year.

 

[Hitchy]

I don't think it would have made much difference....but while we're exploring 'premises', lets add a 4th. Imagine if tests for EPO & HGH had been developed back then. Woulda changed the world!

 

[sopas]

I don't think it would have made much difference....but while we're exploring 'premises', lets add a 4th. Imagine if tests for EPO & HGH had been developed back then. Woulda changed the world!

Certainly, Armstrong, Ullrich, Pantani, Zulle and many others would have tested positive!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[sopas]

I really don't think there's any "what if's" to be had.

When you win the prologue, both time trials and dismantle the field in no uncertain terms on the first big mountain stage, it's a bit like asking "has a herring ever eaten a shark?"

Just for the sake of seeing some carnage:

Pwned

Pwned?????
Without the 6 minutes Zulle lost on an early flat stage due to wind, he would have finished only about 1:30 minutes behind Armstrong in the General classification.

Add Pantani and Ullrich who were better that Zulle (in shape) to it and things are not that clear.
Have you asked yourself why did Armstrong bonked in the 2000 TdF? Becuase Pantani attacked with many, many kilometers to go. Armtrong went after him and cracked, while Ullrich took advantage of the situation and came from behind. And that was with Pantani in worst shape than he was in 1998-1999.

 

[ilpirata]

Pwned?????
Without the 6 minutes Zulle lost on an early flat stage due to wind, he would have finished only about 1:30 minutes behind Armstrong in the General classification.

Add Pantani and Ullrich who were better that Zulle (in shape) to it and things are not that clear.
Have you asked yourself why did Armstrong bonked in the 2000 TdF? Becuase Pantani attacked with many, many kilometers to go. Armtrong went after him and cracked, while Ullrich took advantage of the situation and came from behind. And that was with Pantani in worst shape than he was in 1998-1999.

Bravo Sopas, It is of course a hypothetical, but Pantani in 1999 was stronger than in 1998, and the 2000 version did not have the strength physically to compete for the gc. Though as the 2000 tour went on and all riders tired, and it became necessary to go deep into reserves, his superb stamina would give us another grand performance at Courcheval. After which there was the failed attack at Morzine. But there was certainly some excitement there as well. I read later that Armstrongs team had failed at first to realize that Pantani was in the escape group. "Pantani has attacked!" "Pantani has attacked!" when minutes later they saw he was no longer in the peloton.

 

[swampy1970]

Pwned?????
Without the 6 minutes Zulle lost on an early flat stage due to wind, he would have finished only about 1:30 minutes behind Armstrong in the General classification.

Add Pantani and Ullrich who were better that Zulle (in shape) to it and things are not that clear.
Have you asked yourself why did Armstrong bonked in the 2000 TdF? Becuase Pantani attacked with many, many kilometers to go. Armtrong went after him and cracked, while Ullrich took advantage of the situation and came from behind. And that was with Pantani in worst shape than he was in 1998-1999.

What about that 6 minutes? Stages like that happen pretty much every year. It's not really a 'what if', more of a 'when if' situation. It wasn't the wind that beat Zulle, it was the display of dominance from the Postal squad. For miles Postal only had a slender lead before Zulles' Banesto team cracked and the gaps became huge. And yes, it wasn't the wind that stopped Zulle in his tracks, it was a crash on the "passage."

After winning the time trial and the key first mountain stage pretty convincingly, the 99 Tour was Zulles to try to win and regain time. All Armstrong had to do was keep his lead where it was. Maybe you forget that Lance won the last time trial too, showing he still had plenty left in the tank at the end. If he had need to, given his form at the end of the race there could have been a further sorting out of the field... Maybe you think my interpretation of "you win both big time trials and kill the field on the big mountain stage" showing dominance beyond arguement is a little flawed but I think it's more the case that it troubles you to say that Lance had it in the bag. 4 Stage wins for Armstrong Vs Zulles' 0...

Armstrong bonked on the Joux-Plane in 2000 because he didn't take on enough food and drink, he limited his loses and won the Tour....

Have you asked yourself why did Armstrong bonked in the 2000 TdF? Becuase Pantani attacked with many, many kilometers to go

This is the really laughable part to your argument - Pantani cracked, nay... blew up Hiroshima style and lost over 10 minutes to Armstrong on that stage to finish over 13 minutes down on the stage winner. How strong was Pantani again? He would quit the race the before the start the following day.

A day or so later Armstrong would be back to beat Ulrich in the time trial, hardly a sign of a man tired and spent. A couple of days before that he chased down Pantani on the Ventoux and once again dismantled the field with that monster 'out of the saddle on the drops' effort. But once again your argument comes to nothing when you look at the time gaps - over 6 minutes to second place Ulrich, over 10 to Beloki in third....

 

[alienator]

What would have happened if the Grays from Zeta Reticuli had intervened? Would Jan have been beamed aboard the spacecraft for experiments? Would Pantani have been hit by a death ray? Would everyone but Armstrong have been frozen in time so that Armstrong could have turned a meaningless flat stage into a 35 minute victory?

 

[swampy1970]

What would have happened if the Grays from Zeta Reticuli had intervened? Would Jan have been beamed aboard the spacecraft for experiments? Would Pantani have been hit by a death ray? Would everyone but Armstrong have been frozen in time so that Armstrong could have turned a meaningless flat stage into a 35 minute victory?

I think Jan was crushed by said deathray the day before the Tour started in 2005, before the opening time trial where he was caught by Armstrong. Apparently he mysteriously fell off on an open section of road for no apparent reason. A day later, during the short time trial which went over the bridge that bypasses the passage du gois, Armstrong would once again crush the hopes of the big favourites of the Tour.

 

[sopas]

swampy, I think you didn't get what I was trying to say. Sure, Lance was superior overall to Pantani, Ullrich, Zülle, etc on individual terms, BUT not even the supermachine Armstrong can keep an eye on them all, and US Postal was not that powerful back in 1999. Do you think Lance would have won the Tour de France against let's say 5 Jan Ullrichs riding on different teams? Well maybe, but it would have been much harder that's for sure.

In any case maybe you are right, that day on the 2000 TdF parhaps Lance forgot to eat correctly. He better eats his food next year because Contadaor and Andy surely will do.

 

[swampy1970]

and US Postal was not that powerful back in 1999. Do you think Lance would have won the Tour de France against let's say 5 Jan Ullrichs riding on different teams? Well maybe, but it would have been much harder that's for sure.

Given that Jan didn't ride the '99 Tour I'd say that Armstrong would have loved to have ridden against 5 riders who were in the same shape as Mr Ulrich during the month of July that year...