2004 Tour de France - Who's Your Pick?

Discussion in 'The Bike Cafe' started by meehs, Jun 11, 2004.

  1. maxxevv

    maxxevv New Member

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    Oops.... :eek:

    Let me correct that statement there.

    I'm referring to Lance Armstrong achieving the record number of 6 overall Tour de France victories. Pardon the innuendo there...

    Yes, in my opinion, Eddy Merckx undoubtably has been the greatest cyclist the world has ever seen and quite possibly ever will. To me, Merckx and Indurain rank as the two riders I admire most for their achievements as well as models for aspiring riders.

    "Being 'good' doesn't mean you have to flaunt it ..... nor get big headed over it" as my dad used to say when it comes to one's achievement in any scenario. Think the two of them pretty much exemplifies that modest quality.

    :D
     


  2. SLS

    SLS New Member

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    I will probably regret this but for the podium (knowing Vino is out) would be LA, Tyler & Jan?. Mayo has the power but how much has he already spent on those other races? Tyler will come in second assuming he stays upright. Lance is going to get first either by seconds (depends a lot on Tyler) or a country mile (he gets it in his head to fully dominate which he can). The only thing worrying me is the dice & the chance that Lance gets knocked out early in the race due to a crash. I question Jan getting third - I know he is probably already where he feels he needs to be but with Vino out it could be interesting & it may go to Mayo or hell even Cunnego. No matter what, this is either going to be real interesting or a blow out.
     
  3. maxxevv

    maxxevv New Member

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    Cunego is not part of the Saeco TdF team lineup. Perhaps you missed that piece of news ?

    My assessments are based half on gut feel and half on logical form assessment. Of course all sorts of weird things might happen along the way....

    Jan looks fitter at this time of the year than any other previous years. Even more than in '97 when he won. At least some 'antique' photos my friends have seem to indicate. I have a sneaky suspicion that he might have outdone himself and peaked too early ??? Its likely that he will start off in sparkling form and gradually fade over the 3 weeks. Much like what will happen to Mayo I suspect.

    Why I mentioned Liberty Seguros is due to Heras and Manolo Saiz. Don't forget how strong a team they have from the previous ONCE inheritance. A lot of people seem to have forgotten that.
     
  4. SLS

    SLS New Member

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    Oops - missed that piece, damn vacations with no cycling channels or news. Hera's, I keep forgetting about him - more than likely I would say top 5 - but he could defianetly be a spoiler for Lance. Thanks for the info.
     
  5. jhuskey

    jhuskey Moderator

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    As of one week ago Ullrich stated he wanted to lose 8 more lbs before the tour. Thats the last inside info I will get since my European connection is now back here in the US.:confused:
     
  6. maxxevv

    maxxevv New Member

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    Well, thats what I mean. He might be outdoing himself by losing so much weight just prior to the tour. Sports physiology is a strange thing. It seems that Jan is his best by riding into form rather than losing weight. Over th past few years, he's consistently been overweight at the start of the Tour. But as the days go buy, he starts shedding those extras and rides himself into sparkling form towards the end of the Tour.

    If he's on form at the start, he might be too worn out by the end of the Tour ?? As the human body works differently for different people. Jan's ability to last a grand tour and do well may be because his ability to draw reserves of energy like nobody else could and a big buffer of fluid from the heat in his oversized body. Then as the days and weeks go by, his body gradually sheds the weight and adjusts to the rigours of the tour.

    If he's shed that right from the start, would it work in his favour ??

    Its just a hypothesis, would be great if someone with some sound medical knowledge feedback on this ? :confused:
     
  7. lincolnr

    lincolnr New Member

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    I think Jan has a strong chance of winning and is who i voted for. I'm a Lance fan, but if T-Mobile can afford to leave out a rider of Cadel Evan's talent, I think they'll be an unstoppable force.

    I will also expect Tyler to be right there too. Phonak are in awesome form.

    With the TTT rule change, Mayo will be a threat too.

    I can't wait!
     
  8. wadoflove

    wadoflove New Member

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    Their reasoning for leaving out Evans was that he broke his collarbone 3 times last year and they don't want to risk him crashing out and leaving them a man short in such a crucial race. Also I think they think he is too young to ride the tour this year...

    I think the TTT rule change is rather stupid as it will encourage some teams to dog the TTT. Perhaps a better solution would be allowing all members of a team the same finish time as the first 3 members of the team. That way any team could win and the tactics would be more interesting... then again its not really a "team" anymore.
     
  9. maxxevv

    maxxevv New Member

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    Thats an interesting idea really.

    Perhaps a slight tweak to that idea ?? If I may :

    Final team timing : Timing achieved by more than 50% of riders in the team. Say a 9 man team would take the time of the first 5 riders and a 7 man team would take the time of the first 4 riders.

    On condition: The remaining team members come in say within 10% of the timing achieved by the majority half ? ( a 60km TTT would be about 66 minutes and at 10% would come to about 6 minutes off the pace.)

    Beyond that 10% : Riders times will add on over the 10% margin allowed.

    That would make for a really, really interesting TTT wouldn't it ??

    :D :p ;)
     
  10. lincolnr

    lincolnr New Member

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    I find that an amazing reason. Here's a rider that came close to winning the Giro in his first attempt, is world champion in mountain biking and they're scared of him falling? And in your case, he's too young to be a domestique?

    It's laughable. I can't see Cadel staying on at T-Mobile if this is the treatment he's going to get. The sooner he leaves the better, perhaps Quick.Step to work with Rogers or FDJ with all of the other Aussies :)
     
  11. emrin

    emrin New Member

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    Can't agree more with you. There are actually no words to describe their reasoning - LAUGHABLE is the closest one could find!
    When a team manager suggests one of the stupidest reasons that I have ever heard of for excluding a rider, one has to wonder about the quality of the management....
    It's a pity because Ullrich could do with an intelligent team manager.
     
  12. RC2

    RC2 New Member

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    LA if he's not injured or in any kind of serious crash. Just don't see how he can be beaten.

    But would love to see Tyler or another up-and-comer take it all!
     
  13. wadoflove

    wadoflove New Member

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    Just reporting what I read...somewhere... to the best of my memory, which is admittedly not what it was!
     
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