2005 Hurricane Season predictions released today (5/16/2005)



MountainPro said:
this is mince...the stats i quoted are the norm. Its not extreme for that part of the world. Having a few short lived gusts of 200 mph every now and then doesnt equate to winds consistently at storm force.

let me put it like this...your weather extremes stats are the result of the very high standard of weather monitoring and reporting. Many countries do not have such technology and therefore cannot produce reliable and realistic statistics. You are measing your stats against a few 'bit and pieces' of inconsistent data. Youre not getting the whole picture, all you have is a biased and distorted view of world weather systems.
I'll tell you guys something...We (Louisiana) went through a lot of stress last year including my family and I spent 14 hours in a car to go 153 miles when we evacuated for Hurricane Ivan. There was a bouy in the north gulf that recorded the single highest wave in Gulf history...it was 96 feet from crest to trough. Ivan created that one. Ivan capsized or disloged over 19 platforms in the gulf. To give you a little background on Louisiana...The city is over 10 feet below sea level and is mostly water to begin with...When it rains here there are over 200 pumping stations that have to remove ever drop of water that comes into the city. The doomsday scenario is for a cat 3 or higher Hurricane to come up the mouth of the mississippi. With the city sitting right smak dab between the lake levee and the river levee, the storm would put so much pressure on the levee's that they would break and the city would be projected to be between 35 and 50 feet under water after the tidal surge fully sets in. Ivan was just that storm...It was a cat 4 just before it made land fall between Mobile and Pensecola...It vered at the last moment :eek:

Florida got pummeled...4 major Hurricanes in one season...that has never happened before!!! The CNN Meterologist said that the same mid lattitude conditions that caused last season are the same this year...with one major exception...the Mid Atlantic, Carribean, and Gulf water temperatures on the surface are higher this year than they were at this time last year and as you all know strong upper level cyclonic shear and very warm surface temperatures are what create devestating storms!
 
jaguar75 said:
...The city is over 10 feet below sea level and is mostly water to begin with...When it rains here there are over 200 pumping stations that have to remove ever drop of water that comes into the city. The doomsday scenario is for a cat 3 or higher Hurricane to come up the mouth of the mississippi. With the city sitting right smak dab between the lake levee and the river levee, the storm would put so much pressure on the levee's that they would break and the city would be projected to be between 35 and 50 feet under water after the tidal surge fully sets in. Ivan was just that storm...It was a cat 4 just before it made land fall between Mobile and Pensecola...It vered at the last moment :eek:
Sounds 'akin to Amsterdam. Wasn't New Orleans settled, in part, by the French Acadians (Cajun's) who emigrated there from Nova Scotia. Who was there before the Acadian's :confused: Very interesting ;)
.http://www.experienceneworleans.com/glossary.html
 
davidmc said:
Sounds 'akin to Amsterdam. Wasn't New Orleans settled, in part, by the French Acadians (Cajun's) who emigrated there from Nova Scotia. Who was there before the Acadian's :confused: Very interesting ;)
.http://www.experienceneworleans.com/glossary.html
You are correct David...Mostly...The area was a French colony from 1682-1762...The Spanish then took the area from 1762-1802. In 1802 the French again reclaimed Louisiana and the Lousiana Purchase took place in 1803. Originally Robert Livingston and James Monroe were sent to France to acquire lower Louisiana for the cost of 10 Million to construct a port. During that time there was a slave revolt in Santo Domingo and Napoleon decided the abandon all plans for a major French empire in the US. as a result a deal was struck very quickly to acquire all of "louisiana" for the cost of 15 million. This deal lead to the acquisition of almost 1/3 of the land that now comprises the contiguous 48. The present day states that made up "Lousiana" are (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska, as well as parts of Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and, of course, Louisiana). During their occupation of the area, the Spanish, did not really develop and aside from a few Spanish forts most of the historic architecture is French.

And this concludes our history lesson for the day! :)
 
zapper said:
Pro, would you accept evidence concerning our "most extreme" status from a UK source?
i would accept it from a UK, American or Timbucktu source is the eviudence was was balanced and whole.
 
zapper said:
"According to the National Weather Service (NWS), the United
States experiences more severe storms and flooding than any
other country in the world. In a typical year, we can expect
a staggering assault by the elements: some 10,000 violent
thunderstorms, 5,000 floods, 1,000 tornadoes and several
hurricanes."
okay, youre getting bogged down with one aspect of weather here...what about extremes of heat, cold, humidity, dryness, precipitation (on average)....all attributed to the US?
 
a couple of minutes on the internet and i came up with this.

bear in mind that these are AVERAGE, i.e. normal for these location on an annual basis. These are not record highs or lows.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Lowest average annual temperature: -48°C -56°F
Antarctica South Pole Station 90 degrees south.
(-32 F/-36 C average for the continent.)

Driest average place on Earth - 0.1 mm per year.
Atacama Desert, Chile

Hottest annual average temperature- mean temperature of 34.4 °C.
Dallol, Ethiopia

Hail annual average - 132 days each year.
Keriche, Kenya

Highest rainfall annual average - 523.6 inches, more than 40 feet (13 meters).
Lloro, Colombia

Windiest place on Earth at sea level – average wind speed of 44mph.
Cape Denison – Antarctica

-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Check this out.

During any given minute there are 1000 thunderstorms happening around the world. Now, since water takes up 70%-ish of the worlds surface we can assume that 30% of those storms take place on land. Thats 300 per minute.

The USA experiences 10,000 per year. Thats 0.02 per minute.

So every 50 minutes the USA experiences 1 thunderstorm (on average) and there are 15,000 taking place in the world as a whole during this time.

So the USA experiences 0.0067% of the worlds thunderstorms but takes up a massive 6.25% of the worlds land mass.

If the thunderstoms were spread evenly accross the world then you should, in theory, get 6.25% of them. (correct me is i am wrong)..

Thats 18.75 per minute compared with the actual figure of 0.02 per minute.

The fact is this: as a country the USA is far, far less likely to encounter a thunderstorm than in any other country in the world.

This goes to show that the USA experiences a lot less thunderstorms (on average mind) that the rest of the world, infact the discrepancey is huge, some 900 times smaller in reality.

This info is on the CIA website btw.
 
MountainPro said:
a couple of minutes on the internet and i came up with this.

bear in mind that these are AVERAGE, i.e. normal for these location on an annual basis. These are not record highs or lows.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Lowest average annual temperature: -48°C -56°F
Antarctica South Pole Station 90 degrees south.
(-32 F/-36 C average for the continent.)

Driest average place on Earth - 0.1 mm per year.
Atacama Desert, Chile

Hottest annual average temperature- mean temperature of 34.4 °C.
Dallol, Ethiopia

Hail annual average - 132 days each year.
Keriche, Kenya

Highest rainfall annual average - 523.6 inches, more than 40 feet (13 meters).
Lloro, Colombia

Windiest place on Earth at sea level – average wind speed of 44mph.
Cape Denison – Antarctica

-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Check this out.

During any given minute there are 1000 thunderstorms happening around the world. Now, since water takes up 70%-ish of the worlds surface we can assume that 30% of those storms take place on land. Thats 300 per minute.

The USA experiences 10,000 per year. Thats 0.02 per minute.

So every 50 minutes the USA experiences 1 thunderstorm (on average) and there are 15,000 taking place in the world as a whole during this time.

So the USA experiences 0.0067% of the worlds thunderstorms but takes up a massive 6.25% of the worlds land mass.

If the thunderstoms were spread evenly accross the world then you should, in theory, get 6.25% of them. (correct me is i am wrong)..

Thats 18.75 per minute compared with the actual figure of 0.02 per minute.

The fact is this: as a country the USA is far, far less likely to encounter a thunderstorm than in any other country in the world.

This goes to show that the USA experiences a lot less thunderstorms (on average mind) that the rest of the world, infact the discrepancey is huge, some 900 times smaller in reality.

This info is on the CIA website btw.


Classic stuff, Pro.
 
limerickman said:
Classic stuff, Pro.
no doubt well get some tripe about the USA having bigger storms than any other country, or some other immeasurable statistic...not that Zapper ever produces stats or figures...
 
MountainPro said:
During any given minute there are 1000 thunderstorms happening around the world. Now, since water takes up 70%-ish of the worlds surface we can assume that 30% of those storms take place on land. Thats 300 per minute.

The fact is this: as a country the USA is far, far less likely to encounter a thunderstorm than in any other country in the world.
MeteorologistPro, isn't that a big assumption to be basing facts on? :rolleyes: And who is "we"?

Besides, the "average weather" subject was beat to death months ago. I thought the topic was about hurricane season predictions.
 
MountainPro said:
This goes to show that the USA experiences a lot less thunderstorms (on average mind) that the rest of the world, infact the discrepancey is huge, some 900 times smaller in reality.
Yes MeteorologistPro, extrapolation is a painstaking, albeit inaccurate form of estimation. I never said anything about averages :confused: . I was talking about weather extremes such as the westerly island, you pointed out, in your kingdom that experiences extremes. This thread is about the upcoming hurricane season.
 
Scotty_Dog said:
MeteorologistPro, isn't that a big assumption to be basing facts on? :rolleyes: And who is "we"?

Besides, the "average weather" subject was beat to death months ago. I thought the topic was about hurricane season predictions.
i like talking weather...so there...

the assumption i was making is that if 70% of the earth is filled with water, then the other 30% must be land. Perhaps you assume something different.

Even if there are slight inaccuracies in the calculations the FACT is that Americas huge thunderstorm problem has been massively over stated.

David, you are talking about extremes, others bleated on about averages. This post is therefore not in reply to you if you dont feel it is relevent to your points.
 
MountainPro said:
the assumption i was making is that if 70% of the earth is filled with water, then the other 30% must be land.
No, the actual assumption you made was that 30% of the earth's total thunderstorms happen on land.
 
MountainPro said:
i like talking weather...so there...

the assumption i was making is that if 70% of the earth is filled with water, then the other 30% must be land. Perhaps you assume something different.

Even if there are slight inaccuracies in the calculations the FACT is that Americas huge thunderstorm problem has been massively over stated.

David, you are talking about extremes, others bleated on about averages. This post is therefore not in reply to you if you dont feel it is relevent to your points.

Yes this was beat to death a while back. One stat I believe can be proven. More people are subjected to violent weather in the US than any where else in the worod due to population dispersal.
I however live in the mountains which protect me from hurricanes,tornadoes and recession.
 
Scotty_Dog said:
No, the actual assumption you made was that 30% of the earth's total thunderstorms happen on land.
not something you agree with me on...why not? show me the evidence that suggests a thunderstorm is more likely to occur at sea rather on land...
 
jhuskey said:
Yes this was beat to death a while back.
okay, i'll shut up about it then but i am still waiting for the evidence to prove that the USA has the worst weather on average than any other country.

facts, figures, statistics, websites....that sort of thing...
 
a couple of minutes on the internet and I came up with this.
Yeah, it shows…

bear in mind that these are AVERAGE, i.e. normal for these location on an annual basis. These are not record highs or lows.
Really? What about your Hottest annual average temp factoid for example?
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Driest average place on Earth - 0.1 mm per year.
Atacama Desert, Chile
and…. Yuma Arizona (USA) is the sunniest place in the world. It experiences an average of 4,055 hours of sunshine each year (out of a possible 4,456 hours).

Hottest annual average temperature- mean temperature of 34.4 °C.

· "Between 1960 and 1966, the highest average annual mean temperature in Dallol, Ethiopia was recorded at 94 °F"… C’mon weatherpro, don’t leave out important facts…

Hail annual average - 132 days each year.
Keriche, Kenya
Yeah, hail is really dangerous…that’s why our football players wear helmets….
Highest rainfall annual average - 523.6 inches, more than 40 feet (13 meters).
Lloro, Colombia
…Ok, so it rains there…haven’t heard of many floods in that area…you? Now, The wettest place in the world (based on the average number of rainy days received each year) is Mt Wai-'ale-'ale in Hawaii. The summit is 1,569m (5,148ft) above sea level and receives over 350 days of rain each year…and to be fair, the most consistently wet place in Australia is Waratah, (TAS) with an average of 314 'rainy days' per year.


Windiest place on Earth at sea level – average wind speed of 44mph.
Cape Denison – Antarctica
I’ll give ya that one but…So…

-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Check this out.
Ok..Lets analyze this….

During any given minute there are 1000 thunderstorms happening around the world. Now, since water takes up 70%-ish of the worlds surface we can assume that 30% of those storms take place on land. That’s 300 per minute.
Actually there are 1,800 happening around the world per minute.


The USA experiences 10,000 per year. Thats 0.02 per minute.
Sorry wrong again Weatherman, your math is wrong…why? Because the US experiences 100,000 per year.

So every 50 minutes the USA experiences 1 thunderstorm (on average) and there are 15,000 taking place in the world as a whole during this time.
Not quite…Because of your error above, this is also wrong. Plus you probably included those thunderstorms which occurred in the US in your world figure so, you need to adjust accordingly. Most importantly, you are thinking in simplistic terms here.. You are ASSUMING again that other storms are evenly distributed amongst the other 192 countries in the world…What you compare here is the U.S. against the collective world. That was never the basis of my argument.

So, Every 5 minutes there is a thunderstorm in the US and 8,999 every 5 minutes taking place through out the world. But of course, a good portion of those occur over water.

So the USA experiences 0.0067% of the worlds thunderstorms but takes up a massive 6.25% of the worlds land mass.

If the thunderstoms were spread evenly accross the world then you should, in theory, get 6.25% of them. (correct me is i am wrong)..
Ok, I’ll correct you. A. As stated above you are assuming that all countries are equal… This is almost as bad as thinking that the U.S. is a freaking continent…B. Stick to the facts, i.e. not If this or If that…


The fact is this: as a country the USA is far, far less likely to encounter a thunderstorm than in any other country in the world.

This goes to show that the USA experiences a lot less thunderstorms (on average mind) that the rest of the world, in fact the discrepancy is huge, some 900 times smaller in reality.

This info is on the CIA website btw.
You analysis means means very little for your theory is riddled with half truths and inaccuracies (However, I know this was “tongue in cheek” analysis……Besides, my argument, I believe was “most extreme” or “violent weather” on average in ONE country. You provide averages, some record in a specific period like 6 years etc… If this is your classic stuff, I would encourage you to come up with a NEW product….Oh, never referred to the “CIA” website for my “weather info”….but “tsunamis, volcanoes, and earthquake activity around Pacific Basin; hurricanes along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts; tornadoes in the midwest and southeast; mud slides in California; forest fires in the west; flooding; permafrost in northern Alaska, a major impediment to development” quite a vast array of weather here in the U.S….
 
MountainPro said:
okay, i'll shut up about it then but i am still waiting for the evidence to prove that the USA has the worst weather on average than any other country.

facts, figures, statistics, websites....that sort of thing...
Here pro, email this guy..He is our local meteorologist, here is his response to an email I sent him...To settle this with you once and for all...Just email him...I have my own meteorologist...Top that! :D

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:p[email protected]]
Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2005 10:06


Hi #$%^&%%,

If you prove it to them, they have to promise to watch us in the mornings! :)
The death toll from storms in other countries may be far higher than in the US. But we do, in fact, get the MOST VIOLENT weather. These include thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, nor'easters, flash floods and hail storms. Florida is the lightning capital of the world and also gets more water spouts than anywhere else. Mount Washington in New Hampshire has the highest recorded windspeed and is one of the windiest places on Earth, with wind gusts over 200 mph.

Hope this helps!

Patrick
 
zapper said:
Here pro, email this guy..He is our local meteorologist, here is his response to an email I sent him...To settle this with you once and for all...Just email him...I have my own meteorologist...Top that! :D

-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:p[email protected]]
Sent: Thursday, May 19, 2005 10:06


Hi #$%^&%%,

If you prove it to them, they have to promise to watch us in the mornings! :)
The death toll from storms in other countries may be far higher than in the US. But we do, in fact, get the MOST VIOLENT weather. These include thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, nor'easters, flash floods and hail storms. Florida is the lightning capital of the world and also gets more water spouts than anywhere else. Mount Washington in New Hampshire has the highest recorded windspeed and is one of the windiest places on Earth, with wind gusts over 200 mph.

Hope this helps!

Patrick



Zap you have inspired me! Hire a professional,that's the ticket.
There is another thread to the effect of "Which is better cycling or sex"?
So I will ride by bike this evening,take note, and later hire a prostitute.
I hope my wife understands this is in best interest of science and accuracy
 
jhuskey said:
Zap you have inspired me! Hire a professional,that's the ticket.
There is another thread to the effect of "Which is better cycling or sex"?
So I will ride by bike this evening,take note, and later hire a prostitute.
I hope my wife understands this is in best interest of science and accuracy
Damn...why didn't I think of that....But why don't ya get ya one of those weather channel bimbos and kill two birds with one stone???
 
zapper said:
Damn...why didn't I think of that....But why don't ya get ya one of those weather channel bimbos and kill two birds with one stone???

Brilliant! Another winner.