musette said:An analysis of the potential time LA could gain on key rivals in the 19 km ITT, based on 04 time differences adjusted by distance (assuming same speed for each rider throughout the course).
Formula used: Assumed 05 difference over 19 km = (Actual time difference between LA and applicable rider in Stage of 04) * 19/(Number of km in stage of 04).
Prologue of 04 Tour (6.1 km)
1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Fassa Bortolo 6.50
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.02
16 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.17 --> Stage 1 of 05 Tour would be 0.47 difference from LA
18 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.18 --> 0.50
24 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.19 --> 0.53
26 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0.21 --> 0.59
70 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 0.29 --> 1.24
104 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) Liberty Seguros 0.37 --> 1.49
Alpe d'Huez ITT removed because uphill
Stage 19, Besancon (55 km)
1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 1.06.49
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.01 --> 0.21
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.27 --> 0.50
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 2.50 --> 0.58
Heras, Mayo, Hamilton did not participate
-- Obviously, I understand distance does matter in an ITT, and one is not going at the same rate per mile. But the above is to illustrate that Stage 1 is not as irrelevant as people indicate. LA can still gain multiple tens of seconds on his rivals.
I would calculate the prologue next year differently. The physiology of a 19 km ITT is very different from a 7 km prologue. I would go back to the TdF 2000 and look at who did well there as a model. Explosive, powerful track style riders and people with huge engines and the capacity to accelerate out of corners or up short hills do well in prologues. Like Jalabert almost won in 2002. And even Mayo could do OK over a short distance, but probably not so well over 19 km.
The 19 km TT will favor the long TT specialists like Lance, Ullrich. Hamilton admits it takes him a while to get his engine going so I dont think it favors him so much but he'll do OK . Kloden also could do well. Basso wont. Maybe David Millar could win again he he