2005 TdeF route



musette said:
An analysis of the potential time LA could gain on key rivals in the 19 km ITT, based on 04 time differences adjusted by distance (assuming same speed for each rider throughout the course).

Formula used: Assumed 05 difference over 19 km = (Actual time difference between LA and applicable rider in Stage of 04) * 19/(Number of km in stage of 04).

Prologue of 04 Tour (6.1 km)

1 Fabian Cancellara (Swi) Fassa Bortolo 6.50
2 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 0.02
16 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.17 --> Stage 1 of 05 Tour would be 0.47 difference from LA
18 Tyler Hamilton (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 0.18 --> 0.50
24 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.19 --> 0.53
26 Iban Mayo (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 0.21 --> 0.59
70 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 0.29 --> 1.24
104 Roberto Heras Hernandez (Spa) Liberty Seguros 0.37 --> 1.49

Alpe d'Huez ITT removed because uphill

Stage 19, Besancon (55 km)

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) US Postal p/b Berry Floor 1.06.49
2 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.01 --> 0.21
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile Team 1.27 --> 0.50
6 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 2.50 --> 0.58

Heras, Mayo, Hamilton did not participate

-- Obviously, I understand distance does matter in an ITT, and one is not going at the same rate per mile. But the above is to illustrate that Stage 1 is not as irrelevant as people indicate. LA can still gain multiple tens of seconds on his rivals.

I would calculate the prologue next year differently. The physiology of a 19 km ITT is very different from a 7 km prologue. I would go back to the TdF 2000 and look at who did well there as a model. Explosive, powerful track style riders and people with huge engines and the capacity to accelerate out of corners or up short hills do well in prologues. Like Jalabert almost won in 2002. And even Mayo could do OK over a short distance, but probably not so well over 19 km.

The 19 km TT will favor the long TT specialists like Lance, Ullrich. Hamilton admits it takes him a while to get his engine going so I dont think it favors him so much but he'll do OK . Kloden also could do well. Basso wont. Maybe David Millar could win again he he
 
As I acknowledged, length of TT does obviously matter, as does terain and many other things. I don't know how that's different from what you stated in your post.

I merely note that 19 km is a distance that people are not focusing on, as a part of the Tour that LA and JU will be able to dig several tens of seconds into their competitors on. I also don't see how that's different from your post. The formula-based calculations are to illustrate how, based on the artificial notion of same speed per km regardless of total distance, some time can be gained.

JU is too soft, to the point of letting Kloden walk all over him. If I were JU and I saw Kloden passing me and going with LA, I would have immediately spoken to Kummer/Godefroot in the earpiece and asked them to demand that Kloden come back and pace me. If Godefroot had refused, I would have said that this issue would be brought up with T-Mobile brass that evening. If JU had not let Kloden have the chance to gain time on JU, JU would not have had to deal with the "who is the leader of T-Mobile" issue. Also, if Kloden couldn't get away, maybe JU would have finished on the podium in second or third (possibility).

Salvodelli is going to be an interesting example. He really didn't do very much at T-Mobile, but Bruyneel and LA will motivate him to do his best for LA. That is part of the Discovery magic, in terms of team chemistry. Bruyneel has a carrot (making you feel like LA is making history and you are a part of it; monetary, in terms of sharing the winnings and also in terms of future salary, as Discovery domestiques get a lot of media exposure; feeling of winning; being part of the leading team in Europe) and stick (you better work hard and be in shape, or you will not get on the Tour team or even have an acceptable position on the Discovery team) approach that is a great motivating force.

Part of the motivation at Discovery is that the domestiques know that, if they all fulfill their roles and do their job, LA is very likely to do his job and win the Tour. So there is a very large correlation between the domestiques doing their jobs and the ultimate team goal of LA being at the top of the podium. This relationship is a bit more difficult for JU to establish, although he will have to add motivation for his domestiques somehow.
 
musette said:
The LA website loaded today an analysis by Chris Brewer, maintainer of that website.

"And team performance will be huge this year as the “easier” course means more opportunities for group tactics and strategies to play out. So who do I think wins? Lance if he races – he clearly has the skills, team and experience, but if he doesn’t ride then look to another complete and attacking rider with a strong team – names like Vinokourov, Basso, and Hamilton (if he’s racing, of course). I do not think this course favors Jan Ullrich with only 1 meaningful TT and the decisive Stages 14 and 15 favor attacking style riders which Jan is not, nor do I think the course has enough difficulty in it for pure climbers like Mayo and Heras to get away and stay away."
Have to say I agree with Chris Brewer about JU - he's fine at climbing when it's a long gradual ascent and he can get the big gear turning over, but he's never been able to pedal high cadences like LA can on the shorter steeper climbs so quick attacks are not his thing.

No great surprise that CB thinks Lance will win mind...what else would you expect the webmaster of the Paceline to say? :D
 
Wow I didn't mean to change the subject from TdF route to JU!! Well thats cool cos JU is my fav so I like to read about him!!

I agree with pretty much everything you have all said. Did JU give a reason for not going to CSC? I wish he had. The CSC domestiques don't seem to have any problem with working for Basso. But the T-Mobile ones either don't have the skill to do it (i mean that USPS are gods at it and where the hell are the T-Mobile helpers when JU needs them), are ill-advised or T-Mobile are more interested in a "team win" or any jersey they can get. What the hell is JU with T-Mobile again???.....

T-Mobile have whom I believe is the most talented rider in the world as their leader and they can't seem to get a win out off him. Now, I don't think that this is all JUs fault. Sure he has a few 'weight problems' in the off-season (but if i was under the same pressure as JU i would be getting into the junk food when nobody was looking too!), and he is - as somebody said too soft when it comes to telling his team what to do. But its not like they make it very easy for him! I mean what Goodefroot said about JU in the 04 Tour, would make me want to leave! That would blow my confidence if someone said that about me playing sport. And isn't the only reason JU keeps is advisor (Pevenage i think his name is-or something like that) around is because he is loyal? Well thats great Jan, we love your loyalty, but we would love you to win the bloody TdF more!!

What can you do. All we can do is sit at our computers and try to pick what we think he should do. You know what though, I rekon he might just do it in 05. JU is getting towards the end of his career and I think he knows that if he wants to win he has to start talking tough and training tough. Well maybe not the talking part! If he hasn't learnt that by now, I doubt that he deserves to win.

Dosn't it just pee you off to see JU in this situation! Man I wish he would so something, anything so he will win!! I will be crossing my fingers damn tight in July!!
 
Not everybody at CSC would work for Basso. Sastre will not, I assume, render his own interests subservient to those of Basso necessarily.

I assume JU had various reasons for not going to CSC, among them the financial stability of T-Mobile and JU's salary expectations and expectations of bringing certain "entourage" (incl. riders). Also, BR and JU obviously have complex interactions based on their history. Presumably, the German orientation of the T-Mobile team may have also been attractive. Also, T-Mobile does have a stronger team than CSC.

I don't believe JU is necessarily better off with BR. Obviously, anybody would be better than WG or MK. However, part of why WG and MK have had their way is that JU was not demanding enough. JU has a good team in T-Mobile; he just needs to make sure everybody understands he is the captain and only him.

Also, don't feel bad about changing the topic. Talking about JU vs LA and their support is one of my favorite topics. See the who has a better team thread.
 
musette said:
Not everybody at CSC would work for Basso. Sastre will not, I assume, render his own interests subservient to those of Basso necessarily.

I assume JU had various reasons for not going to CSC, among them the financial stability of T-Mobile and JU's salary expectations and expectations of bringing certain "entourage" (incl. riders). Also, BR and JU obviously have complex interactions based on their history. Presumably, the German orientation of the T-Mobile team may have also been attractive. Also, T-Mobile does have a stronger team than CSC.

I don't believe JU is necessarily better off with BR. Obviously, anybody would be better than WG or MK. However, part of why WG and MK have had their way is that JU was not demanding enough. JU has a good team in T-Mobile; he just needs to make sure everybody understands he is the captain and only him.

Also, don't feel bad about changing the topic. Talking about JU vs LA and their support is one of my favorite topics. See the who has a better team thread.
Ok, so what does JU have to do or change in order to beat Lance. Lets not forget other riders aswell, I mean there were 2 other riders that beat him at the TdF this year. Is that a little worring for us JU fans. This year he wasn't just 2nd to LA he was 4th.

1- So he has a good team, a strong team. But we don't think all of them are 100% commited. So he needs to ensure that they are.

2- Control his weight. Which seems to be the easiest to do.

3- Train harder? Do you think he needs to train harder? I guess we don't really know what he does.

What does LA need to change to beat JU? Absolutley nothing.
So poor Jan is on the back foot right from the start. Geez, LA is even playing round with what team he belongs to he is so happy with the way he is going.

He dosn't even have to think about his domestiques not working for him, because they sign a contract to say they will. How many riders are willing to sacrifice their chances at winning the TdF in order to see their team leader do it instead. And I mean really sacrifice. In some of the lesser teams, all they want is someone to get on the podium. Perhaps LA has snatched them all. But riding for JU or LA there is no chance you are going to be let away with that. But hang on a min... they are! Kodi was. When I read what JU had written about that on the TMO website I thought what a great guy, giving his support to Klodi. But now I think about it, it was a silly thing to do. I doubt that was what he wanted. But he had to do it. I guess you could look at it this way, JU should not have put himself in that position to start with.

I am sure that one of the best cyclists in the world, would do everything possible to get the best team they can and to make sure that their team is 100% behind them. So why is JU still putting up with it? It must be more complicated than it seems.

Its just so frustrating. Jan Ullrich is the most talented rider in the world at the moment and he deserves the best team.

P.S- Is it ok to call JU the best rider in the world?? I go to type that then I have to stop myself because I am reminded of LA!!
 
Jan needs many things besides those already discussed.

-- He needs a brilliant strategist like Bruyneel or BR.
-- He needs to be in constant communication all year around with his DS, instead of having talked to Godefroot a few times during the year like 04.
-- He needs to do more practice trips for key stages.
-- He needs to do those practice trips with his key mountain domestiques.
-- He needs to practice TTT much more. Note that USPS' 04 win in the TTT was based on Bruyneel telling them to not try too hard at the end (OLNTV), given the max time to be gained had already been achieved after a certain point.
-- He needs to keep his weight in check, so that he does not have to lose weight quickly at the last minute and risk losing power.
-- He needs Kloden to become 100% his domestique.
-- He needs to kick Zabel off the Tour team. Zabel can concentrate on the Giro and Vuelta jerseys he wants.
 
musette said:
Jan needs many things besides those already discussed.

-- He needs a brilliant strategist like Bruyneel or BR.
-- He needs to be in constant communication all year around with his DS, instead of having talked to Godefroot a few times during the year like 04.
-- He needs to do more practice trips for key stages.
-- He needs to do those practice trips with his key mountain domestiques.
-- He needs to practice TTT much more. Note that USPS' 04 win in the TTT was based on Bruyneel telling them to not try too hard at the end (OLNTV), given the max time to be gained had already been achieved after a certain point.
-- He needs to keep his weight in check, so that he does not have to lose weight quickly at the last minute and risk losing power.
-- He needs Kloden to become 100% his domestique.
-- He needs to kick Zabel off the Tour team. Zabel can concentrate on the Giro and Vuelta jerseys he wants.
Why kick Zabel? Is it because the TMO management focus on to amny things and to have a strong sprinter like Zabel is just another distraction? I mean does JU not really need him to win TdF? Well it would never happen anyway!!
 
Getting back to LeTour : do you not find the Vuelta and/or Giro more interesting as a race.

LeTour is far too much hyped these days - and it invariably doesn't provide the same level of entertainment as either the Giro and/or Vuelta.

In Europe we get live coverage of all three - and to be honest, the Vuelta and Giro are, from a cycling connnaiseurs viewpoint, much better entertainment.
 
Obviousy, one reason the other races are more interesting is that they don't have somebody as outstanding as LA who wins all the time. ;)

JU notes (rougly translated):

The stages to Pforzheim and Karlruhe constitute for me among the highlights of the Tour 2005. On first impression, a lot of heightened difficuty seems to be missing for 05. However, in order to understand the details, I have to look at the stage profiles (?). I assume the passes through the Vosges and the Massif Central wil hold other surprises for us. The strength of the teams wil be definitely be enormousy important, in order to counter attacks of the favorites.

CB, Ludwig and JU agree with my early assessment re: significance of team strength. :D People haven't focused on the heightened role of Salvodelli yet. If JU gets his team motivated, his team is not necessarily weaker than LA's. In some senses, LA's domestiques had more specialized roles in 04 than JU's, but that has been balanced somewhat by the addition of Sevilla and Lara (sp). JU needs to get his mountain domestiques practicing TTT right away. Sevilla is obviousy appropriate in that discipline, having worked with Phonak, etc. Lara, I don't know.
 
limerickman said:
I hope we see Cunego in the 2005 TDF and Valverde as well.
Very good chances for both. They aren't very good timetriallists but in only 16+55 Kms there won't be,probably, a big time deficit for them.

Vino and Basso can surely make an impact as well, but the main question is the way Lance is going to deal with his racing program.

If what he told about new goals etc. are true and tries to win some April classics or the Giro (in full throttle that is), then it will be very interesting. If he choses once more to concentrate at the Tour then he has something like 85% to make it. There's no question at all, if the course is suitable for him or not. Every possible Tour course is suitable for post-cancer Lance!
 
musette said:
Stage 15 is also interesting because it includes Col de Portet early on, where Fabio Casartelli's had his accident.
Yes. Next year it will be 10 years from his tragic loss. That's why the Tour course passes by and if I'm remembering well, there will be some initiatives from ASO to honour Casartelli.
 
limerickman said:
Ullrich needs more man namagement to get the best out of him.
JU should have gone to CSC - under Riis, he would beat LA.
I have no doubt whatsoever about that.
:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :)
Excactly! Riis showed as a Team manager that he can motivate people, make them focus on specific goals and works superbly on tactics, too.

Also, one thing that many analysts tend to forget. It wasn't Pevenage who managed so well Ullrich at Bianchi, but Gallopain.

Anyway, if Ullrich want to change the status quo, he must change his attitude and his training. If you're spending too much energy as late as he usually does it's normal that he's a little low in stamina when the race begans.

Also, big gears are great but not always. When you must attack you want cadence as well. But this switch in style takes a lot of training (especially in early season). Something out of question when Jan that period (and for months to come) deals with his weight. McGee last season changed his style in climbing, switching to faster cadence instead of big gears, and he finished 8th in the Giro.

As for last years Tour, maybe T-mobile waited already too long supporting Jan. He was never in the race.
 
limerickman said:
Getting back to LeTour : do you not find the Vuelta and/or Giro more interesting as a race.

LeTour is far too much hyped these days - and it invariably doesn't provide the same level of entertainment as either the Giro and/or Vuelta.

In Europe we get live coverage of all three - and to be honest, the Vuelta and Giro are, from a cycling connnaiseurs viewpoint, much better entertainment.
Certainly it is much hyped than the other races. But the other races don't have a peloton as strong as the Tour's one. Although Leblanc quite every year had left out many important riders. TDF nowadays is more a product than a race and it didn't change even after the Festina affair. French market is important, so the French teams & riders are (even if they are weak), US market is important too (every year more US fans watch the race live).

On the other hand La Vuelta was always more of a Spanish affair and the Giro organisers don't give a dime if their race had lost coverage in an important country as Spain(losing Spanish teams as well).

And although ProTour seemed to work better for Giro & Vuelta,their alliance with Tour against UCI indiacates that they' re more interested in maintaining what they perceive as their tradition (and control) than losing control by UCI.
 
Dimos said:
:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :)
Excactly! Riis showed as a Team manager that he can motivate people, make them focus on specific goals and works superbly on tactics, too.

Also, one thing that many analysts tend to forget. It wasn't Pevenage who managed so well Ullrich at Bianchi, but Gallopain.

Anyway, if Ullrich want to change the status quo, he must change his attitude and his training. If you're spending too much energy as late as he usually does it's normal that he's a little low in stamina when the race begans.

Also, big gears are great but not always. When you must attack you want cadence as well. But this switch in style takes a lot of training (especially in early season). Something out of question when Jan that period (and for months to come) deals with his weight. McGee last season changed his style in climbing, switching to faster cadence instead of big gears, and he finished 8th in the Giro.

As for last years Tour, maybe T-mobile waited already too long supporting Jan. He was never in the race.


You raise a very interesting point about McGee.
Luckily I got to see all of the Giro this year and McGee was outstanding.
His climbing was superb in the third week (and remember the Dolomites are a lot tougher than anything in the TDF).
McGee's cadence was very impressive - similar to Armstrong, Roche (low gears, high pedal tempo).
Ullrich is more in the BigMig school of cadence : higher gear, slower pedal tempo but more power).
Thus JU is the diesel engine - LA is a petrol engine (in analogous terms).

I've long advocated that Ullrich may need to look at this - and perhaps adapt his cadence to compensate for those bursts of acceleration in the mountains.

Gallopan (in the Living with Bianchi documentary) appears to have a significant input to Bianchi (the shots of him with Becker in particular and his
driving the team car).
 
I still think the Tour route is boring.

It is a huge mistake to try to level the route. LeBlanc is right to retire. He has lost it. It is the most bizarre route in over thirty years, in modern tour history.

Try and find a Tour route without two long ITTs and without multiple uphill finishes. He thinks it's the close race route that makes the race exciting. Wait till he sees his crappy TV ratings when Armstrong doesnt race. Wait till he sees how many Americans dont go and spend millions of dollars when they see Lance not racing. Wait till they see how boring it will be to see Jan race against Basso (unless Basso goes to Discovery!!)

He is like Chief Inspector Dreyfus going insane to defeat Clouseau. He will not win.

ASO is offering a huge $$ prize to the winner of the Casartelli stage, the queen stage this year.

Lance will not contest this years tour. Too much stress. Too many death threats. In an interview he said they were even trying to get him to wear a helmet for the Aple ITT. and security guards in the TT car behind Armstrong. Incredible the guy didnt soil his skinsuit, much less blow people away on that ITT.

Dolomites harder then the Tour?! Not! Its the riders who make the race. Listen to any rider, they all say the Tour is much much harder because of the quality of the teams, the strength of individual riders, the pace, the pressure, the media, the whole package. SO yes, a certain climb or two in the Giro are steeper and harder for sure than certain Alps or Pyrenees.

But, Who would you rather try and stay with, Brad McGee on a Dolomite pass, or Lance, Basso, or Heras on Pla d'Adet? McGee will lose minutes on Lance or Basso on any Tour climb, although I agree he is riding much better in the hills and I hope he does really well, a great guy.
 
hombredesubaru said:
I still think the Tour route is boring.

It is a huge mistake to try to level the route. LeBlanc is right to retire. He has lost it. It is the most bizarre route in over thirty years, in modern tour history.

Try and find a Tour route without two long ITTs and without multiple uphill finishes. He thinks it's the close race route that makes the race exciting. Wait till he sees his crappy TV ratings when Armstrong doesnt race. Wait till he sees how many Americans dont go and spend millions of dollars when they see Lance not racing. Wait till they see how boring it will be to see Jan race against Basso (unless Basso goes to Discovery!!)

He is like Chief Inspector Dreyfus going insane to defeat Clouseau. He will not win.

ASO is offering a huge $$ prize to the winner of the Casartelli stage, the queen stage this year.

Lance will not contest this years tour. Too much stress. Too many death threats. In an interview he said they were even trying to get him to wear a helmet for the Aple ITT. and security guards in the TT car behind Armstrong. Incredible the guy didnt soil his skinsuit, much less blow people away on that ITT.

Dolomites harder then the Tour?! Not! Its the riders who make the race. Listen to any rider, they all say the Tour is much much harder because of the quality of the teams, the strength of individual riders, the pace, the pressure, the media, the whole package. SO yes, a certain climb or two in the Giro are steeper and harder for sure than certain Alps or Pyrenees.

But, Who would you rather try and stay with, Brad McGee on a Dolomite pass, or Lance, Basso, or Heras on Pla d'Adet? McGee will lose minutes on Lance or Basso on any Tour climb, although I agree he is riding much better in the hills and I hope he does really well, a great guy.


Dolomites are tougher.
Generally accepted that the mountain stages in the Giro are tougher.
Have you ever tried climbing the Gavia/Motorilo ?

Take your point about the strength of teams in both tours.
I concede that the TDF teams are stronger, but try putting you logic to those
who tried to contain BigMig in 1992/1993 Giro.
 
limerickman said:
I've long advocated that Ullrich may need to look at this - and perhaps adapt his cadence to compensate for those bursts of acceleration in the mountains.
'

LA is better suited to the high cadence style because of his lung/heart characteristics; he has a more powerful heart than most people and he has a high VO2 measure. Not everybody can adopt a high cadence pedaling style and do well with it.
 
arent you bored of seeing the same mountain climbs in tour of france over and over and over. i am tired of seeing peyresourde, portillon and such. tour of france never innovates, you can see the same mountain stages every year. when will we be able to see larrau, bagargui, issarbe...in the pyrenees or agnello, la bonette, granon, joux plane... in the alps
 
Just wondering, do the other Grand Tours change their route much each year?

As for the TdF, it might be a logistics or economic problem or just a desire to preserve the basic route. Or something else. How accessible are these mountains you mentioned?