2008 TDF Stage 6 : Aigurande - Super-Besse Sancy



adamastor

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stilesiii said:
I can see a successful attack on the Col de la Croix Morand and setting up a nice break on the decent. Considering the profile, I think this sets up for a break staying away.

I think the GC guys aren't going to gamble a whole bunch on this stage and if the break does not include a serious GC contender, the break stays away and we have a first time stage winner.

However, somebody like Vandevelde might go all in early and try to pull a chicken. Cunego, Peirero or one of the Schleck brothers might take a shot.

We'll definitely find out if Valverde is still on form.
Good point, Stilesii. Let's go further. Who's bloody good in descent this year??? In good old days, Merckx was a fantastic downhill rider. Well, we know at least one that is awful ...Frank Schleck.
 

TheDarkLord

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adamastor said:
Good point, Stilesii. Let's go further. Who's bloody good in descent this year??? In good old days, Merckx was a fantastic downhill rider. Well, we know at least one that is awful ...Frank Schleck.
Let us hope that he doesn't injure himself seriously on one of the descents.
 

Powerful Pete

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adamastor said:
Good point, Stilesii. Let's go further. Who's bloody good in descent this year??? In good old days, Merckx was a fantastic downhill rider.
Where is Savoldelli when you need him, LOL.
 

Jan the man

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I think Valverde, Evans, Devolder are pretty decent descenders.

Cunego, Kirchen and Samuel Sanchez are probably best of the overall contenders.

Sastre the Schlecks, Menchov etc are pretty average descenders.
 

Grater

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Yeah, it's hard to tell what's going to happen tonight. If the break goes away - a huge possibility, it could be anyone. But I think Kirchen wants to be in yellow come tonight. So they have to catch the break and Kirchen and Valverde should fight it out. However, let's have a look.

Caisse D'Espagne will put someone in the break - Pereiro or Sanchez
Columbia may put Siutsou in the break
David De La Fuente will probably try and get in the break.
David Millar will try and get in the break.
Ricardo Ricco could try and get in the break.
Leonardo Piepoli and Christophe Moreau are others to get in the break - both aern't contenders for the overall.
Chavannel, Voigt and Dessell are other break contenders but I think Voigt may leave his break chance to later in a transitional stage.

The people who are serious about the polka dot jersey will try something today and that is De La Fuente, Piepoli and Moreau.

But if the main favourites end up together on the last climb then top 3 has to be Kirchen, Valverde and Cunego!
 

Crankyfeet

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Grater said:
Yeah, it's hard to tell what's going to happen tonight. If the break goes away - a huge possibility, it could be anyone. But I think Kirchen wants to be in yellow come tonight. So they have to catch the break and Kirchen and Valverde should fight it out. However, let's have a look.

Caisse D'Espagne will put someone in the break - Pereiro or Sanchez
Columbia may put Siutsou in the break
David De La Fuente will probably try and get in the break.
David Millar will try and get in the break.
Ricardo Ricco could try and get in the break.
Leonardo Piepoli and Christophe Moreau are others to get in the break - both aern't contenders for the overall.
Chavannel, Voigt and Dessell are other break contenders but I think Voigt may leave his break chance to later in a transitional stage.

The people who are serious about the polka dot jersey will try something today and that is De La Fuente, Piepoli and Moreau.

But if the main favourites end up together on the last climb then top 3 has to be Kirchen, Valverde and Cunego!
I would add in Ricco. He has ruled himself out of the GC with his TT and is hunting for stages. Evans probably won't be as interested to cover him as he would Piti.

I'm no expert but Ricco should be competitive here... with Valverde, Kirchen, Cunego... and posssibly Frank Schleck as a wildcard.
 

Runitout

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Crankyfeet said:
I would add in Ricco. He has ruled himself out of the GC with his TT and is hunting for stages. Evans probably won't be as interested to cover him as he would Piti.

I'm no expert but Ricco should be competitive here... with Valverde, Kirchen, Cunego... and posssibly Frank Schleck as a wildcard.

I think Ricco miscalculated. I think he thought losing by 2 mins to Contador in a TT heavy Giro meant he could approach to the relatively TT-light Tour and do well. He must have been in okay form to take the role as team leader for SD. I wonder what we'll see of him this Tour - he may be like Simoni was a few years back - anonymous save for a consolation medium mountain stage win.

Whether he does well tonight will depend on his morale, I think, more than his form.

Form is (almost!) everything in this race, so I expect a final group halfway up Super Besse including Schumacher, Kirchen, Valverde, Menchov, Schlecks, Cunego, Evans, Sastre, Sammy Sanchez, L-L Sanchez and Popovych. Two or three will go away from that in the last 1.5 km, and Evans and Menchov will lose six seconds to them.

Kirchen to win the stage. S. Sanchez my darkie.
 

Grater

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Crankyfeet said:
I would add in Ricco. He has ruled himself out of the GC with his TT and is hunting for stages. Evans probably won't be as interested to cover him as he would Piti.

I'm no expert but Ricco should be competitive here... with Valverde, Kirchen, Cunego... and posssibly Frank Schleck as a wildcard.
Yep, I think a break may stay away - as someone mentioned, do the favourites really want to work tonight?

But we all know that Kirchen wants to be in a yellow jersey so if he attacks everyone has to go with him.

We all know one thing. Evans won't be going for the stage win!
 

Grater

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Runitout said:
I think Ricco miscalculated. I think he thought losing by 2 mins to Contador in a TT heavy Giro meant he could approach to the relatively TT-light Tour and do well. He must have been in okay form to take the role as team leader for SD. I wonder what we'll see of him this Tour - he may be like Simoni was a few years back - anonymous save for a consolation medium mountain stage win.

Whether he does well tonight will depend on his morale, I think, more than his form.

Form is (almost!) everything in this race, so I expect a final group halfway up Super Besse including Schumacher, Kirchen, Valverde, Menchov, Schlecks, Cunego, Evans, Sastre, Sammy Sanchez, L-L Sanchez and Popovych. Two or three will go away from that in the last 1.5 km, and Evans and Menchov will lose six seconds to them.

Kirchen to win the stage. S. Sanchez my darkie.
I tend to agree with that!
 

Trev_S

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I'll go for Ricco tonight.
Saunier Duval so far have had bad tour, I think they will have a crack at a win. They look like they need a moral booster. If not Ricco then Piepoli will be out in a break and go for the KOM.

If Millar is going to target the Leaders Jersey, which I don't think he can match the pace at the end of the final climb so perhaps he'll go for the breakaway as well.

Valverde & Kirchen could also be on the cards to win the stage.

In the breakaway tonight I'll pick Millar, Piepoli (or De La Fuente), Voeckler & 2 or 3 others to go on a break, a Columbia &/or Agritubal rider(could Moreau get into a break?).
 

Grater

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Trev_S said:
I'll go for Ricco tonight.
Saunier Duval so far have had bad tour, I think they will have a crack at a win. They look like they need a moral booster. If not Ricco then Piepoli will be out in a break and go for the KOM.

If Millar is going to target the Leaders Jersey, which I don't think he can match the pace at the end of the final climb so perhaps he'll go for the breakaway as well.

Valverde & Kirchen could also be on the cards to win the stage.

In the breakaway tonight I'll pick Millar, Piepoli (or De La Fuente), Voeckler & 2 or 3 others to go on a break, a Columbia &/or Agritubal rider(could Moreau get into a break?).
Yep - I'm 95% certain Piepoli will be in the break. If there is a columbia rider in there, I would suggest Siutsou!

My thoughts of what the break will consist of is!

Piepoli
Siutsou
Millar
De La Fuente
Voeckler
Dessell
Chavannel

Some or if not all these riders will want to be in the break tonight. Piepoli is my tip for KOM so this is a good stage for him to get some points. The only way Millar is to get yellow is to be in a break and to try and hold the peloton off.

If the break doesn't surprise, my top 3 is Kirchen, Valverde and Ricco.
 

Runitout

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Grater said:
Yep - I'm 95% certain Piepoli will be in the break. If there is a columbia rider in there, I would suggest Siutsou!

My thoughts of what the break will consist of is!

Piepoli
Siutsou
Millar
De La Fuente
Voeckler
Dessell
Chavannel

Some or if not all these riders will want to be in the break tonight. Piepoli is my tip for KOM so this is a good stage for him to get some points. The only way Millar is to get yellow is to be in a break and to try and hold the peloton off.

If the break doesn't surprise, my top 3 is Kirchen, Valverde and Ricco.

I'd mostly agree with that - and add Vandevelde and Kreuziger to my previous list of riders to be with the leading group halfway up S-B. I tend to think that Garmin will try to place either Millar or Lowe in the escape.

Ricco could well go for the escape group, rather than the main group. He's lost enough time to get some rope, and he's now claimed he would win this stage.

Expect Moreau in the break. I'd have thought Voigt would have a crack as well, but he went 'a bloc' in the ITT - maybe they think that with enough time he could grab yellow for a day? Not sure what the tactics were there.

Edit - I don't think this stage is as decisive as some would hope. The difficulties aren't long enough to really sort out the men from the boys. I hope I'm wrong.
 

Grater

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Runitout said:
I'd mostly agree with that - and add Vandevelde and Kreuziger to my previous list of riders to be with the leading group halfway up S-B. I tend to think that Garmin will try to place either Millar or Lowe in the escape.

Ricco could well go for the escape group, rather than the main group. He's lost enough time to get some rope, and he's now claimed he would win this stage.

Expect Moreau in the break. I'd have thought Voigt would have a crack as well, but he went 'a bloc' in the ITT - maybe they think that with enough time he could grab yellow for a day? Not sure what the tactics were there.

Edit - I don't think this stage is as decisive as some would hope. The difficulties aren't long enough to really sort out the men from the boys. I hope I'm wrong.
Interesting about Voigt. I thought he might leave it to later on to win a stage. I don't think this stage suits him if a better climber gets into the break. His best bet would leave it to a transitional stage.
 

Powerful Pete

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Runitout said:
I think Ricco miscalculated. I think he thought losing by 2 mins to Contador in a TT heavy Giro meant he could approach to the relatively TT-light Tour and do well. He must have been in okay form to take the role as team leader for SD. I wonder what we'll see of him this Tour - he may be like Simoni was a few years back - anonymous save for a consolation medium mountain stage win.
I do not think that Riccò ever thought he would be riding for GC at this Tour, after the energy he expended at the Giro going for the win. He always indicated that he was coming to the TdF to 'learn' and hoping for a good tour with a stage win. He has also openly admitted that he is not a contender in time trials, and has already said that he will need to focus on them in the winter if he wants to have better chances of winning grand tours.

Ergo, I expect him to attack today. :)
 

Runitout

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Powerful Pete said:
I do not think that Riccò ever thought he would be riding for GC at this Tour, after the energy he expended at the Giro going for the win. He always indicated that he was coming to the TdF to 'learn' and hoping for a good tour with a stage win. He has also openly admitted that he is not a contender in time trials, and has already said that he will need to focus on them in the winter if he wants to have better chances of winning grand tours.

Ergo, I expect him to attack today. :)


My initial post was before I heard that he promised to attack.

He promised to attack - he is a man of his word. He really does put his money where his mouth is.
 

Grater

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Runitout said:
My initial post was before I heard that he promised to attack.

He promised to attack - he is a man of his word. He really does put his money where his mouth is.
When did he say he was going to attack?

Did he say he was going to attack tonight's stage?
 

Crankyfeet

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One thing that intrigues me about cycling is how cyclists often broadcast that they are going to attack before they do so... almost to get an implicit deal that they will be let go, but watched. I remember accounts of Landis going round at breakfast before that infamous stage that he tested positive on, telling everybody exactly where he was going to attack. It just seemed weird to me to take away the element of surprise.
 

jonjungel

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Crankyfeet said:
I remember accounts of Landis going round at breakfast before that infamous stage that he tested positive on, telling everybody exactly where he was going to attack. It just seemed weird to me to take away the element of surprise.
People do a lot of strange stuff when they're high on drugs :rolleyes:. A lot of them go around and tell people that they will attack them. But me, I just cut my hair off.
 

Scotttri

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jonjungel said:
People do a lot of strange stuff when they're high on drugs :rolleyes:. A lot of them go around and tell people that they will attack them. But me, I just cut my hair off.
there there brittney