I think Ricco miscalculated. I think he thought losing by 2 mins to Contador in a TT heavy Giro meant he could approach to the relatively TT-light Tour and do well. He must have been in okay form to take the role as team leader for SD. I wonder what we'll see of him this Tour - he may be like Simoni was a few years back - anonymous save for a consolation medium mountain stage win.
Whether he does well tonight will depend on his morale, I think, more than his form.
Form is (almost!) everything in this race, so I expect a final group halfway up Super Besse including Schumacher, Kirchen, Valverde, Menchov, Schlecks, Cunego, Evans, Sastre, Sammy Sanchez, L-L Sanchez and Popovych. Two or three will go away from that in the last 1.5 km, and Evans and Menchov will lose six seconds to them.
Kirchen to win the stage. S. Sanchez my darkie.