2008 Tour de France Stage 20 - Sat July 26: Cerilly-St. Amand-Montrond (ITT), 53 km

[Crankyfeet]

Stage 20 ITT

The wind prediction on Saturday for nearby Chateauroux from weather.com is 5-10mph from WSW. So assuming the same wind direction in the surrounding 80km... the first 10km out of Cerilly should be downwind then they will swing around to a more westerly direction and it will be more into their faces and across from the left. The last 10km should be directly into the wind... if the forecasts are correct. Currently the wind is from the east...and its expected to swing around to a southerly wind on Friday... then a WSW wind on Saturday for the time trial.

 

[Crankyfeet]

The time trial looks like it is mostly into the wind. This has got to favour Evans compared to Sastre right? Evans being the more powerful and slightly heavier rider?

 

[jhuskey]

I would agree since he also has better form and position on the bike. As long as the wind doesn't switch directions during the TT and all things remain equal.
It should be a "nail bitter".

 

[ad9898]

The time trial looks like it is mostly into the wind. This has got to favour Evans compared to Sastre right? Evans being the more powerful and slightly heavier rider?

I reckon so yes but here in the UK the weather forecasters couldn't tell you whether its raining or sunny from one day to the next, forecasting the wind would be difficult i think.

Sastre starts last, its obviously and advantage to start last, in this case though it could be crucial with Sastre being a fair amount weaker in the TT than Evans.

 

[TheDarkLord]

I reckon so yes but here in the UK the weather forecasters couldn't tell you whether its raining or sunny from one day to the next, forecasting the wind would be difficult i think.

True for Deutschland as well. So, it is fair to think that it is the same for France. Forecasts beyond 24 hours have to be taken with a grain of salt.

 

[Cobblestones]

True for Deutschland as well. So, it is fair to think that it is the same for France. Forecasts beyond 24 hours have to be taken with a grain of salt.

With Sastre and Frank currently 1 and 2, I think the starting order will be

4th to last: Evans
3rd to last: Frank
2nd to last: Kohl
last: Sastre

Isn't that right?

Probably Evans will catch Frank and scare CSC shitless.

 

[TheDarkLord]

With Sastre and Frank currently 1 and 2, I think the starting order will be

4th to last: Evans
3rd to last: Frank
2nd to last: Kohl
last: Sastre

Isn't that right?

Probably Evans will catch Frank and scare CSC shitless.

It will be Evans, Kohl, Frank and then Sastre, no? Why would Kohl start after Frank if they are 3 and 2 in the GC? Also, Evans is starting before Frank. So, the question of catching up to him does not arise.

 

[Trev_S]

It will be Evans, Kohl, Frank and then Sastre, no? Why would Kohl start after Frank if they are 3 and 2 in the GC? Also, Evans is starting before Frank. So, the question of catching up to him does not arise.

They can/will swap riders around if they are in order from the same team .
So it's likely they will swap Schleck & Kohl

 

[Cobblestones]

It will be Evans, Kohl, Frank and then Sastre, no? Why would Kohl start after Frank if they are 3 and 2 in the GC? Also, Evans is starting before Frank. So, the question of catching up to him does not arise.

You're of course right. Evans starts before Frank. Sorry about my brainfart.

 

[jhuskey]

At the beginning of this race I thought a new record might be set for yellow jersey changes (8) is the record, don't see that happening now,close but no cigar.
The closet result was 8 seconds in 1989 and the possibility that a closer finish might happen does exist.

 

[ad9898]

My forecast, it will be under 10 seconds difference, I'm sure it will be the closest tour ever.

On our highlights show tonight did the math on the time trial, taking into account the road and distance, they had Sastre losing the tour by 42 seconds, I think it will much closer than this, like I say under 10 secs.

 

[Crankyfeet]

Weather forecast for nearby Chateauroux is still WSW winds of 5-10 mph. There is a 60% chance of precipitation in Chateauroux with a few showers forecast for the morning... becoming steady rain in the afternoon.

Chateauroux is about 90km and 60km WNW of Cerilly and St. Amand-Montrond respectively however.

Bourges is about 40-50km north of both the start and the finish... and has exactly the same weather forecast as above on weather.com.

Could be wet with a slight headwind. Crashes are feasible if that eventuates.

 

[limerickman]

Stage 20. ITT.

The wind prediction on Saturday for nearby Chateauroux from weather.com is 5-10mph from WSW. So assuming the same wind direction in the surrounding 80km... the first 10km out of Cerilly should be downwind then they will swing around to a more westerly direction and it will be more into their faces and across from the left. The last 10km should be directly into the wind... if the forecasts are correct. Currently the wind is from the east...and its expected to swing around to a southerly wind on Friday... then a WSW wind on Saturday for the time trial.

Thanks Cranky.


This ITT is going to make/break the final GC placings.

Sastre, in 2006 ITT, dropped a lot of time in the ITT.
So much so that he dropped from second on GC (before the ITT) to third overall on GC.

Ideally Sastre, would need to have about 3 mins on Evans going in to the ITT, to feel a bit more comfortable about securing first spot on GC.
Assuming that nothing dramatic happens to Schleck, Evans and Sastre on todays stage (Friday) : I reckon that overall GC is down to an ITT race between Schleck and Evans.
Kohl?
We all knew that Kohl was a superb climber and that particular discipline is his forte.
Kohl can time trial but he is not at either Evans/Schleck trialling ability.

Schleck V Evans - which one will prevail in ITT?

 

[Runitout]

Thanks Cranky.


This ITT is going to make/break the final GC placings.

Sastre, in 2006 ITT, dropped a lot of time in the ITT.
So much so that he dropped from second on GC (before the ITT) to third overall on GC.

Ideally Sastre, would need to have about 3 mins on Evans going in to the ITT, to feel a bit more comfortable about securing first spot on GC.
Assuming that nothing dramatic happens to Schleck, Evans and Sastre on todays stage (Friday) : I reckon that overall GC is down to an ITT race between Schleck and Evans.
Kohl?
We all knew that Kohl was a superb climber and that particular discipline is his forte.
Kohl can time trial but he is not at either Evans/Schleck trialling ability.

Schleck V Evans - which one will prevail in ITT?

I think Schleck and Kohl are out of it. Menchov is still in with a chance - he can do a monster ITT. Sastre and Evans favoured. If it runs to form, Evans by 30 secs to a minute, with Sastre and Menchov on the podium. But technically, any of the top five can still win it.

 

[Crankyfeet]

Looks like it's going to be wet...with a slight headwind.

 

[Rolfrae]

Looks like it's going to be wet...with a slight headwind.

Anything can happen, even in a TT and especially in this Tour of all Tours. Look at Ras' awful TT when he crashed his way off the podium. Look at Millar's last TT of the Tour last year when both his Mavic wheels fell apart. Or Ulle crashing in the rain-soaked final TT of 2003. Evans could be about to finish 30 seconds up on Sastre and then puncture or misjudge a turn. Sastre might sit up and start waving to the crowds - anything can happen in Le Tour 2008!

 

[mitosis]

Anything can happen, even in a TT and especially in this Tour of all Tours. Look at Ras' awful TT when he crashed his way off the podium. Look at Millar's last TT of the Tour last year when both his Mavic wheels fell apart. Or Ulle crashing in the rain-soaked final TT of 2003. Evans could be about to finish 30 seconds up on Sastre and then puncture or misjudge a turn. Sastre might sit up and start waving to the crowds - anything can happen in Le Tour 2008!

True, and it also depends on how much each of the top riders has been able to recover in the last few days.

 

[jhuskey]

Looks like it's going to be wet...with a slight headwind.

Which is good if you are with a woman, but ain't no good at a TT.
Sorry just trying to break the tension.

 

[Andrija]

Which is good if you are with a woman, but ain't no good at a TT.
Sorry just trying to break the tension.

No, no... Keep the tension. Lack of tension won't do you any good.
At least when you are with wet woman.

 

[Trev_S]

There was an interview with Bruyneel here on SBS (Aust).
He didn't rate Evans in the TT and said Sastre will have a strong enough TT to keep the yellow jersey.

Never liked Bruyneel anyway.