Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.Grater said:I don't think it will be a bunch sprint. The peloton wouldn't be able to organise a fight in a fight club.
Now that Kirchen is technically in Yellow, Columbia need to protect him and he needs to protect his green jersey so I highly doubt Columbia will be doing pace setting tonight! If I was team director at the tour, I would tell 6 riders to blanket Kirchen and try and set Cavendish and Ciolek in the breakaway. That's how I would do stage 5 if I was in the right position. And that's exactly what Columbia should do!
Grater said:Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.
Sprint finish, it's Cavendish!
Wow... you already know who is going to be in the break group...Grater said:Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.
Sprint finish, it's Cavendish!
Yep!Runitout said:Cavendish is the quickest man there - the question is whether or not he can find his way to the finish with his lead out train. I think this course will suit someone with punch, as the slight downhill finish should help them maintain their speed post acceleration.
I'm going for McEwen, as he had good history in similar finishes - although he was quicker then.
Freire is my second pick.
I do have a sneaky suspicion that Columbia have decided they won't want to do most the work tonight, so you heard it here first. There is a strong possibility Cavendish is in the breakaway! He wants a stage win and with how it's gone so far, his best chance is in a break! Like I say - if I was team director I would try and get Cavendish in the break! And if Cavendish gets in the break, it won't be chased down.Crankyfeet said:Wow... you already know who is going to be in the break group...
Have you just come back from breakfast with the Columbia team and every other rider in the hotel as the peloton sorted out who's going to be in the break?...
Do you think that CA, Rabo, Milram, and Barloworld will let that break succeed if Cav is in there without Thor, Freire, Zabel, and Hunter?Grater said:I do have a sneaky suspicion that Columbia have decided they won't want to do most the work tonight, so you heard it here first. There is a strong possibility Cavendish is in the breakaway! He wants a stage win and with how it's gone so far, his best chance is in a break! Like I say - if I was team director I would try and get Cavendish in the break!
Cav won't be the only sprinter there!Crankyfeet said:Do you think that CA, Rabo, Milram, and Barloworld will let that break succeed if Cav is in there without Thor, Freire, Zabel, and Hunter?
Even Robbie would chase that one down on his own...
So you're saying that the last four guys on your list are going to bust their gut to see who can get 5th place? Or are they just going to fight it out for the KOM points?Grater said:Cav won't be the only sprinter there!
If the sprinters decide to be in the break, the break will consist of
McEwen, Cavendish, Hushovd, Zabel with Voeckler, Chavanel, Casar, Gilbert and Domoulin
If the sprinters don't decide to be in the break, replace those 4 with 4 no names
I thought there were no climbs today? Nah, I don't know if sprinters will be in the break, I just assume that they need to try something radical to get a win as I don't think the peloton can organise anything at the moment. If the sprinters don't get into the break, then it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those riders in the break!Crankyfeet said:So you're saying that the last four guys on your list are going to bust their gut to see who can get 5th place? Or are they just going to fight it out for the KOM points?
With my limited knowledge.. I give the probability of a break being made with the sprinters in it as almost zero.Grater said:I thought there were no climbs today? Nah, I don't know if sprinters will be in the break, I just assume that they need to try something radical to get a win as I don't think the peloton can organise anything at the moment. If the sprinters don't get into the break, then it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those riders in the break!
That's true!Crankyfeet said:With my limited knowledge.. I give the probability of a break being made with the sprinters in it as almost zero.
Despite the last break succeeding and the fact that the peloton in sprint stages aren't as disciplined it seems as recent years, the sprinters aren't going to want to ride at zone 4 for 150km plus. Only their own team would support them in the break. And realistically, in the last few years, only about 1 in 10 breaks have succeeded on pancake stages, so they would be far better taking their chances on the peloton catching the break... and them expending much less energy IMO.
I'm with you on that one.classic1 said:McEwen
Cooke
Renshaw
O'Grady
Lancaster
Haussler
Only 6 1/2 months to Australia day.
Well the break of french riders has already got over 8'15" gap on the Peloton after 65 km.Grater said:That's true!
Hopefully there is a sprint finish but the break can't get more than 6 minutes lead for it to happen.
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