2008 Tour De France : Stage 5 Cholet - Châteauroux 230 km Wednesday, July



Looks like a nice day - some pretty foul weather looks to be heading for southern Britain with strong winds through the Channel but the weather quickly improves as you head into France and the race route should be dry with a SW breeze at about 10mph and temperatures will climb to 25C. The slight tailwind should help a breakaway stay away but after an easy day today will the sprinters' teams do better today? Or will they hope that someone else will do most of the work? Cavendish looked less than impressed when interviewed after the race but i dont think Team High Road will do all the work theirselves. They have Kirchen to look after on the next stage. Also, they may have some interest in a breakaway staying away as the big points the breakaway takes will help Kirchen stay at or near the top of the points competition. I dont think it means they wont chase but they wont want to do all the work. It also partly depends on who is in the yello jersey. If Feillu clings onto it today then his team will go all out to keep it tomorrow. CSC may also want to keep it for Cancellara if he wins but with three GC contenders i dont think they will be stringing the bunch out too much.

Cavendish to win if it ends in a bunch sprint which i think is likely - the teams should sort themselves out this time. If it is a breakaway then it could be almost anyone really. Gilbert or Casar are names that come to mind.
 
I was thinking the same thing about Gilbert and Casar and maybe Voeckler wants his name back in the paper Wednesday night.
Either way a long and flat stage . I expect the team mangers will do better with calculations for catching the breakway this go around.
I would predict maybe multiple breakaway groups and venture a wild a** guess that Zabel may have a good day.
 
I would love to see Zabel get one last Tour stage and show Cavendish what an old man can do.
 
I don't think it will be a bunch sprint. The peloton wouldn't be able to organise a fight in a fight club.

Now that Kirchen is technically in Yellow, Columbia need to protect him and he needs to protect his green jersey so I highly doubt Columbia will be doing pace setting tonight! If I was team director at the tour, I would tell 6 riders to blanket Kirchen and try and set Cavendish and Ciolek in the breakaway. That's how I would do stage 5 if I was in the right position. And that's exactly what Columbia should do!
 
Grater said:
I don't think it will be a bunch sprint. The peloton wouldn't be able to organise a fight in a fight club.

Now that Kirchen is technically in Yellow, Columbia need to protect him and he needs to protect his green jersey so I highly doubt Columbia will be doing pace setting tonight! If I was team director at the tour, I would tell 6 riders to blanket Kirchen and try and set Cavendish and Ciolek in the breakaway. That's how I would do stage 5 if I was in the right position. And that's exactly what Columbia should do!
Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.

Sprint finish, it's Cavendish!
 
Grater said:
Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.

Sprint finish, it's Cavendish!

Cavendish is the quickest man there - the question is whether or not he can find his way to the finish with his lead out train. I think this course will suit someone with punch, as the slight downhill finish should help them maintain their speed post acceleration.

I'm going for McEwen, as he had good history in similar finishes - although he was quicker then.

Freire is my second pick.
 
Grater said:
Anyway onto tonight. If a break survives, then any one of Gilbert, Voigt, Seb Chavanel, Sylv Chavanel, Domoulin, Voeckler and Casar.

Sprint finish, it's Cavendish!
Wow... you already know who is going to be in the break group... :cool:

Have you just come back from breakfast with the Columbia team and every other rider in the hotel as the peloton sorted out who's going to be in the break?... :p
 
Runitout said:
Cavendish is the quickest man there - the question is whether or not he can find his way to the finish with his lead out train. I think this course will suit someone with punch, as the slight downhill finish should help them maintain their speed post acceleration.

I'm going for McEwen, as he had good history in similar finishes - although he was quicker then.

Freire is my second pick.
Yep!

Surely this has to be a sprint finish. If it isn't, then this tour is screwed!

1. Cavendish
2. Freire
3. McEwen
 
Crankyfeet said:
Wow... you already know who is going to be in the break group... :cool:

Have you just come back from breakfast with the Columbia team and every other rider in the hotel as the peloton sorted out who's going to be in the break?... :p
I do have a sneaky suspicion that Columbia have decided they won't want to do most the work tonight, so you heard it here first. There is a strong possibility Cavendish is in the breakaway! He wants a stage win and with how it's gone so far, his best chance is in a break! Like I say - if I was team director I would try and get Cavendish in the break! And if Cavendish gets in the break, it won't be chased down.
 
Grater said:
I do have a sneaky suspicion that Columbia have decided they won't want to do most the work tonight, so you heard it here first. There is a strong possibility Cavendish is in the breakaway! He wants a stage win and with how it's gone so far, his best chance is in a break! Like I say - if I was team director I would try and get Cavendish in the break!
Do you think that CA, Rabo, Milram, and Barloworld will let that break succeed if Cav is in there without Thor, Freire, Zabel, and Hunter?

And what would be in it for the other guys in the break? Bust your **** to stay away from the peloton so you can fight it out for second place?

Even Robbie would chase that one down on his own... :p
 
Crankyfeet said:
Do you think that CA, Rabo, Milram, and Barloworld will let that break succeed if Cav is in there without Thor, Freire, Zabel, and Hunter?

Even Robbie would chase that one down on his own... :p
Cav won't be the only sprinter there!

If the sprinters decide to be in the break, the break will consist of

McEwen, Cavendish, Hushovd, Zabel with Voeckler, Chavanel, Casar, Gilbert and Domoulin

If the sprinters don't decide to be in the break, replace those 4 with 4 no names
 
Grater said:
Cav won't be the only sprinter there!

If the sprinters decide to be in the break, the break will consist of

McEwen, Cavendish, Hushovd, Zabel with Voeckler, Chavanel, Casar, Gilbert and Domoulin

If the sprinters don't decide to be in the break, replace those 4 with 4 no names
So you're saying that the last four guys on your list are going to bust their gut to see who can get 5th place? Or are they just going to fight it out for the KOM points?
 
Crankyfeet said:
So you're saying that the last four guys on your list are going to bust their gut to see who can get 5th place? Or are they just going to fight it out for the KOM points?
I thought there were no climbs today? Nah, I don't know if sprinters will be in the break, I just assume that they need to try something radical to get a win as I don't think the peloton can organise anything at the moment. If the sprinters don't get into the break, then it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those riders in the break!
 
Grater said:
I thought there were no climbs today? Nah, I don't know if sprinters will be in the break, I just assume that they need to try something radical to get a win as I don't think the peloton can organise anything at the moment. If the sprinters don't get into the break, then it wouldn't surprise me to see some of those riders in the break!
With my limited knowledge.. I give the probability of a break being made with the sprinters in it as almost zero.

Despite the last break succeeding and the fact that the peloton in sprint stages aren't as disciplined it seems as recent years, the sprinters aren't going to want to ride at zone 4 for 150km plus. Only their own team would support them in the break. And realistically, in the last few years, only about 1 in 10 breaks have succeeded on pancake stages, so they would be far better taking their chances on the peloton catching the break... and them expending much less energy IMO.
 
Crankyfeet said:
With my limited knowledge.. I give the probability of a break being made with the sprinters in it as almost zero.

Despite the last break succeeding and the fact that the peloton in sprint stages aren't as disciplined it seems as recent years, the sprinters aren't going to want to ride at zone 4 for 150km plus. Only their own team would support them in the break. And realistically, in the last few years, only about 1 in 10 breaks have succeeded on pancake stages, so they would be far better taking their chances on the peloton catching the break... and them expending much less energy IMO.
That's true!

Hopefully there is a sprint finish but the break can't get more than 6 minutes lead for it to happen.
 
McEwen
Cooke
Renshaw
O'Grady
Lancaster
Haussler

Only 6 1/2 months to Australia day.
 
Grater said:
That's true!

Hopefully there is a sprint finish but the break can't get more than 6 minutes lead for it to happen.
Well the break of french riders has already got over 8'15" gap on the Peloton after 65 km.

The three riders in the break group are Lilian Jegou (Francaise des Jeux), Nicolas Vogondy (Agritubel) and Florent Brard (Cofidis).

The break around 8 mins is fine as long as the bunch start reeling them in early enough IMO. Like around 80 km to go.
 
Looks like Soler abandoned after 12 km into today's stage. CN reports that he had another spill in the neutral zone. So, the inevitable has finally happened. Hope he has better luck next year.
 

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