2009 Giro : stage 16 : Monday, May 25 :Pergola - Monte Petrano 237 kms



Andrija

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doctorSpoc said:
so Sastre WAS playing possum.. still pretty far back... still has Blaukhause and Mt Vesuvius to try something though.

i'm becoming a believer in Menchov.. looks like he has the goods to go all the way... just takes one bad day though.. for interest sake and good racing the Giro is so much better than the tour people are willing to take chances.. people in the tour willfully race for 3rd, 4th, 5th.. hell even 10th place.. makes for boring negative racing.
Sastre is riding for the podium, not for the victory. So, he's right in the place. May have a chance for second, but I wouldn't bet. Now he'll defend his 3rd... And there you go - it's going to be just like in the Tour.
 

doctorSpoc

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Andrija said:
Sastre is riding for the podium, not for the victory. So, he's right in the place. May have a chance for second, but I wouldn't bet. Now he'll defend his 3rd... And there you go - it's going to be just like in the Tour.

i doubt it.. i think Sastre will try again on Mt. Vesuvius and Blaukhaus... if there is even a little chink in Menchov's armor he can actually make up that time too.. Menchov looks to be getting stronger though, but no telling how he'll react to a rest day.. some it does well other not so much... the race is still open..

3 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 2.19

2:19.. with the time bonus is doable.. he really needs at min 3mins with the ITT at the end but it's possible..

but also, we're into the last few days... int he tour people riding for podiums and their 10th places starts happening in the 1st 10 days... then you have two more weeks of boring as hell racing to watch.
 

RdBiker

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doctorSpoc said:
i doubt it.. i think Sastre will try again on Mt. Vesuvius and Blaukhaus... if there is even a little chink in Menchov's armor he can actually make up that time too.. Menchov looks to be getting stronger though, but no telling how he'll react to a rest day.. some it does well other not so much... the race is still open..

3 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 2.19

2:19.. with the time bonus is doable.. he really needs at min 3mins with the ITT at the end but it's possible..

but also, we're into the last few days... int he tour people riding for podiums and their 10th places starts happening in the 1st 10 days... then you have two more weeks of boring as hell racing to watch.
Can't really see Sastre beating Menchov for the overall. Menchov looked like he could have gone with Sastre if he wanted to but he did the smart move and stayed with Di Luca. A very good tactical move since Sastre wasn't a real threat to him whereas Di Luca certainly was. It looked like Menchov made Di Luca chase Sastre and just followed his wheel.
Though Sastre might surprise me. I slightly underestimated him for today's stage but that bet on Leipheimer losing only 20secs was really overestimated...

But look at Armstrong. If he had gone his own tempo all the way he might've stayed within 1 to 2 minutes of Sastre. If he can peak even higher in the Tour Astana will really have a hard team to beat. Remember that Contador should be head and shoulders above the best riders in this race.
 

RdBiker

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Andrija said:
Sastre is riding for the podium, not for the victory. So, he's right in the place. May have a chance for second, but I wouldn't bet. Now he'll defend his 3rd... And there you go - it's going to be just like in the Tour.
With only the easier mountain stages left you are probably right about Sastre. I doubt that the top three would change at all since Menchov seems very capable of following every move Di Luca makes and Di Luca won't give up his second place. Basso, Leipheimer and even Sastre are so far back that I can't see them making up all that lost time in the short mountain-top finishes.
 

doctorSpoc

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RdBiker said:
With only the easier mountain stages left you are probably right about Sastre. I doubt that the top three would change at all since Menchov seems very capable of following every move Di Luca makes and Di Luca won't give up his second place. Basso, Leipheimer and even Sastre are so far back that I can't see them making up all that lost time in the short mountain-top finishes.

Blockhaus is not going to be an easy stage... people mistakenly think a short stage like this will be easy.. it is not, it will be very hard.. it will just be contested at lighting speed... think 50+ km/hr for 60 kms to the base of the climb followed by a lung busting 20km climb (twice as long and has high as today)... this will be one of the hardest days of the Giro.

the climb up to Mt Vesuvius is just as hard as today.. yes the preamble is not as hard but it's perfect for the adventurous team that can get rider(s) in the early break, get their GC hopeful to go on the penultimate climb and TTT to the base of final climb and then launch them on the final climb.. this is how Cunego won his Giro..
 

RdBiker

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doctorSpoc said:
Blockhaus is not going to be an easy stage... people mistakenly think a short stage like this will be easy.. it is not, it will be very hard.. it will just be contested at lighting speed... think 50+ km/hr for 60 kms to the base of the climb followed by a lung busting 20km climb (twice as long and has high as today)... this will be one of the hardest days of the Giro.

the climb up to Mt Vesuvius is just as hard as today.. yes the preamble is not as hard but it's perfect for the adventurous team that can get rider(s) in the early break, get their GC hopeful to go on the penultimate climb and TTT to the base of final climb and then launch them on the final climb.. this is how Cunego won his Giro..
You misread my post. I said "With only the easier mountain stages left...". Blockhaus is by no means easy but it's a lot easier than today's stage. It climbs to about 1800 meters whereas today we had three mountains at 1400, 1400 and 1100 meters. Since the stage is short the riders will be much fresher entering the harder parts of the climb than they were today when they reached Monte Petrano. If things don't dramatically change from today the top three riders can't make huge differences on each other. Menchov might extend his lead or Sastre might nip away another 20 secs but neither will change the overall picture. If someone outside the top three wants to gain minutes on the others you can coun't how much more power he would need to output and I can't really see Leipheimer or Basso getting such a "boost" on the rest day.

The problem with the Vesuvius stage is that there are no other big climbs before the final ascent. The climb at 101K is the only possibility but I've seen that climb and there's no way in hell Rabo and Menchov could lose the Giro on that one and it's so far from Vesuvius that any GC hopefuls would be pulled back.

If someone's going to challenge Menchov and they missed out on it today Blockhaus is practically their only chance. I do agree that someone could potentially ride away on that climb and gain enough time to take the jersey but I just don't thinks it's probable.
 

wicklow200

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Great racing today. .

There was a race inside a race among every bunch of riders scattered along the slope.

Menchov did let Sastre go. But Ive never seen Sastre so strong. He's riding better than at the tour last year. Not saying he could have distanced Basso or Menchov if they chased him straight away, but his attacks are more pacy than Ive ever seen from him.

As for Armstrong - is he at his limit. He seems to lack an extra gear, one he had even when he wasn't winning prep races in his tour winning days. Or is he just a bit further back in his training schedule.

Great effort by Popo today. Back with Lance and his form is returned. Hmm..

Poor Gibo. Looks like he has had it now. Don't he'll be back at the Giro again. Doesnt look like he can even win a stage anymore.

Levi - can't even stay with a cleanish Basso. Just an off day?
 

Eldrack

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Sounds like Levi completely cracked, Lance had to drop back to help him. He's coming into form, could be interesting come July. I think Menchov has this one wrapped up unless he totally collapses on one of the final two mountains. The last TT counts in his favour after all.
 

ilpirata

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doctorSpoc said:
i doubt it.. i think Sastre will try again on Mt. Vesuvius and Blaukhaus... if there is even a little chink in Menchov's armor he can actually make up that time too.. Menchov looks to be getting stronger though, but no telling how he'll react to a rest day.. some it does well other not so much... the race is still open..

3 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Cervelo Test Team 2.19

2:19.. with the time bonus is doable.. he really needs at min 3mins with the ITT at the end but it's possible..

but also, we're into the last few days... int he tour people riding for podiums and their 10th places starts happening in the 1st 10 days... then you have two more weeks of boring as hell racing to watch.
I agree that Sastre will certainly try and that he needs to cut three minutes into Menchov to have a chance for overall win. No easy task. The race was very interesting. it had tactics, risk taking, and pain. DiLuca showed courage, but perhaps he was better off riding a little more defensively on this stage. Basso too showed courage, but Sastre and his team were brilliant, as was Menchov and his team.