2009 Giro : Stage 5 - Wednesday, May 13: San Martino di Castrozza - Alpe di Siusi, 12



RdBiker

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I guess we'll have Lance out of contention after tomorrow. I'll bet Basso for the win, Leipheimer second.
 

Eldrack

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First part off the climb is 7.2% average, steep enough for people to make suicide attacks and get some ground before dying, steep enough to thin the field out. The climbing domestiques will be on the front, could well see Liquigas or Astana sitting on the front setting a hard, hard pace. Then it flattens out a bit and I expect a reasonably large group to hit the last bit off the climb where the fireworks will go off pretty much straight away when they hit 1.5 kms off 9.5% gradient or there abouts.

I guess it depends if Basso has rediscovered his doped to the gills form. If he hasn't he's too big to flourish on such a steep climb and the smaller riders like Di Luca and Simoni will have the edge. Having said that I think those two won't really cut it this year, bit too old in my book. Still it's early days in the Giro so they may have a chance now but fade as the race goes on. Top riders will arrive in small groups a few seconds apart, really tough to chose a winner but I'm going to go with Basso 'cos he's blatantly back on the gear followed by Leipheimer who will have wheelsucked all the way to the top only to be dropped by an attack by Basso in the last 500 metres. Pellizoti to take third.
 

Andrija

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Feb 16, 2005
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I'd say Armstrong will suffer on this stage. He couldn't respond when Soler, Di Luca & co. accelerated. Whether he didn't want to push himself in the red zone or just couldn't - outcome is the same. That goes for this stage too. If he tries to follow - his legs will hurt, if he decides to stay out of red - his ego will hurt when Italians start saying how they dropped him like a bad habit.
 

doctorSpoc

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Nov 18, 2005
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i think the killer will strike again.. i also think this might just be the stage that pushes Armstrong back into retirement... they are going to light it up tomorrow!!!

DiLuca, Garzelli, Basso, Cunego, Liephiemer, Simoni... Armstrong 5-10min down... maybe abandons...

Pellizotti is an awesome rider but always performs subpar on important days
 

Trev_S

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Jan 24, 2004
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Simoni, Basso & Pellizotti are my picks.

as per the others posts I reckon Armstrong will suffer and get get dropped.
Are we running a tab, I'll take a 1:45 time loss :p
 

Rolfrae

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Sep 15, 2006
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Trev_S said:
Simoni, Basso & Pellizotti are my picks.

as per the others posts I reckon Armstrong will suffer and get get dropped.
Are we running a tab, I'll take a 1:45 time loss :p
I'm going to pick Simoni for this stage, or at least I'd like him to win but I'm not sure he will. However, I think DiLuca has rediscovered his training plans from the year he won the Giro and will be hard to beat. He needs to get as much time as he can from stages like this before he loses minutes to Basso and the Embryo in the long TT.
 

mitosis

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Jun 21, 2004
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Why is everyone writing off the testicle of steel? I didn't think it sounded that bad in stage 4.

Stage 5 will show whether Rogers is a threat.
 

Rolfrae

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mitosis said:
Why is everyone writing off the testicle of steel? I didn't think it sounded that bad in stage 4.
As soon as he gets that "deraileur problem" sorted (and that bag of plasma injected) he'll be back on top.
 

jhuskey

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Oct 6, 2003
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mitosis said:
Why is everyone writing off the testicle of steel? I didn't think it sounded that bad in stage 4.

Stage 5 will show whether Rogers is a threat.


Not enough training time this season. IMO

btw: Lim, I got your info and will pm it to you.
 

doctorSpoc

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Rolfrae said:
As soon as he gets that "deraileur problem" sorted (and that bag of plasma injected) he'll be back on top.

this could well happen... could have just been saving the good stuff for today :D

remember 2005... when literally, the whole Disco team except Armstrong was dropped on the final climb, then the next day they all magically rode like super men? Lancey Potion No. 9 to the rescue... lol.
 

Eldrack

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doctorSpoc said:
this could well happen... could have just been saving the good

' stuff for today :D

remember 2005... when literally, the whole Disco team except Armstrong was dropped on the final climb, then the next day they all magically rode like super men? Lancey Potion No. 9 to the rescue... lol.
It was three days later. Crash and burn on stage 8, hilly day on day 9 where Rasmussen got away, rest day then on stage 10 they'd had their blood and they destroyed everyone and everything in their path. Apart from Piti off course :p
 

doctorSpoc

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Armstrong loses 3mins...

ok Johan... time for a reality check. time for Astana to forget about Armstrong and rally around Liephiemer... put Armstrong on domestique duties.. and not on the climb because he obviously can't work the climb.. needs to be put on pace keeping on flats and the maybe the foot hills.. Horner looks well equipped to work the climbs.
 

Eldrack

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doctorSpoc said:
Armstrong loses 3mins...

ok Johan... time for a reality check. time for Astana to forget about Armstrong and rally around Liephiemer... put Armstrong on domestique duties.. and not on the climb because he obviously can't work the climb.. needs to be put on pace keeping on flats and the maybe the foot hills.. Horner looks well equipped to work the climbs.
Yup, Armstrong is out of the GC race. Astana looking pretty strong though with Horner doing so well and LL will rip that time trial to pieces. Speaking off the time trial that's the next GC stage, no real oppurtunity to gain time until then although plenty off time to have a hunger knock and loose a whole load.
 

guncha

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Since Blockhaus is cut this was the hardest mountaintop finish of this year's Giro. I don't think it was bad performance by Lance because Italian guys peak for Giro while Lance was injured before Giro. Lance was doing good until the last two km of the stage where he lost about half of his time. Possibly he took last kilometers easier because he had nothing to fight for.

TDF's Arcalis and Verbier are much easier than today's climb. In fact Arcalis and Verbier are about as hard as yeasterday's mountaintop finish. I guess Lance will stick with the best during those two stages. Stages to Mont Ventoux and Grand Bornard are the only real mountain challenges of TDF. I guess Lance can easily compensate slightly better climbing by his opponents with 93 km of ITT and TTT. Lance didn't win anything before the TDF of 2005. You will see real Lance in July!!!
 

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