2009 TDF: Stage 3 : Monday 6 July : Marseille > La Grande-Motte : 196kms
- Thread starter limerickman
- Start date
Thor Hushovd seems to be the only contender for Green, but he's already 14 points or so behind so will have to scrap really hard. Also he's going to have to beat Cav in a couple of finishes. If Cav wins another couple of stages, which he could easily do in this opening week all he has to do is survive until Paris and he's got that Green jersey, no problems.
As for the split in the pack, Armstrong was the only major GC contender up there. I think Astana know that Kirchen, Rogers, Canc, Gerdemann don't really pose any sort of threat to Contador so why not get Armstrong a bit of extra time against the people who can drop him the mountains? Contador had all the people who really threatened him marked in the second group so they didn't need to chase back to a bunch of people who Contador will destroy on Ventoux.
As for the split in the pack, Armstrong was the only major GC contender up there. I think Astana know that Kirchen, Rogers, Canc, Gerdemann don't really pose any sort of threat to Contador so why not get Armstrong a bit of extra time against the people who can drop him the mountains? Contador had all the people who really threatened him marked in the second group so they didn't need to chase back to a bunch of people who Contador will destroy on Ventoux.
Do you really think Contador will destroy the likes of Sastre et al on the Ventoux? These guys all look pretty strong to me right now. A few slips of concentration. A bit of grit shown by the other contenders and he might well find it hard to take significant time out of them.Actually another thought which has just occurred to me is that a lot of the mountain stages don't seem to end in a mountain so what you build up over the major climbs you then lose in the rest of the stage. Will he benefit so much. I think this is shaping up to be a cracking TdF. All kudos to the organisers.
nonns said:
Should be great, but I cant help remembering the tour 2 years ago, no one who didnt get done for drugs could match it with contadoper in the mountains, and now he's improved ( questionably ) out of site in time trialing, as much as I dont like him, it will be hard to see anyone beeting him unless Lance finds form from 4 years ago.
Which kinda sux when you want Evans to finally win.........highly unlikely I know
Sadly Evans never gets the right combination of team, form, luck, good judgement, equine growth hormone (neigh neigh and thrice neigh) together to pull himself up to the win in the TdF. Trouble is I think you need all of those things.
He should change teams.
Oh and also I'm not entirely convinced that threatening to cut peoples heads off
endears him to the press or the public but that was an outburst at a sensitive point.
I'd like to see someone other than Contador win also. Actually Sastre seems like a nice unassuming guy. Keeps his head down works hard....
I think Contadors going to win it. Lance might get to the podium but I have my doubts (I hope he does). Evans another second or a third. Sastre mebbe a second or a third.
Personally I'd like to see Lance win it. I don't know if he's doping or not. Frankly I suspect they all are. If not Lance then Sastre or Evans. Evans cos I'd like to see him do something other than come second and he works like a demon.
He should change teams.
Oh and also I'm not entirely convinced that threatening to cut peoples heads off
endears him to the press or the public but that was an outburst at a sensitive point.I'd like to see someone other than Contador win also. Actually Sastre seems like a nice unassuming guy. Keeps his head down works hard....
I think Contadors going to win it. Lance might get to the podium but I have my doubts (I hope he does). Evans another second or a third. Sastre mebbe a second or a third.
Personally I'd like to see Lance win it. I don't know if he's doping or not. Frankly I suspect they all are. If not Lance then Sastre or Evans. Evans cos I'd like to see him do something other than come second and he works like a demon.
No, it's not even possible. If Riis decides to protect Cancellara, that would be an easy task for other contenders to break him. He can't follow attacks in mountains, he can just follow pace on less steep climbs. Also, there are some nasty climbs long before the finish line in this year's race, so he could be broken on them too. Schleck's pacing Cancellara after attacks from Contador, Sastre and others is wasting of team, they can pace him just to limit loses on under 10 minutes per HC climb.Chavez said:
Andrija said:
Canc was superb in the mountains in last years TDF.
(don't ask me how/why he improved).
It would not surprise me if Saxo's main GC rider is Canc.
Several journalists and former riders have backed Canc to win overall this year.
steve said:
I distinctly recall Canc flogging himself in the mountains last year.
He did massive turns on the front in order to help the Schleck Bros.
Didn't realise that he lost time.................must be getting more forgetful!
JAPANic said:
Yeah, he has lost a lot of weight - hence the speculation about him being Saxo's man for GC.
Look at him on the podium this year and compare his frame to last year.
A lot of commentary in Europe is backing Canc as a possible overall GC contender.
He was superb when he could make in breakaway and then join his team mates on climb, pull for couple of kilometers and that's it. He was nowhere near on last climbs when he was with the bunch. He sure isn't the first one who'll be dropped on climb, but he's not the one who can follow either.limerickman said:
I think Lance has a chance. He's in pretty much the perfect position anyway. He couldn't have dreamed of a better start.
If the others want to beat him they'll have to crack him and when was the last time that happened? Yeah yeah, he's past it, too long out, too old, but this is Lance, and this is the Tour. I don't envy those with the task of over hauling him.
The only way I see him capitulating tamely is if he's off the juice now, presuming he took the juice before, and has returned clean for whatever reason, and consequently lost his Lance mojo.
If the others want to beat him they'll have to crack him and when was the last time that happened? Yeah yeah, he's past it, too long out, too old, but this is Lance, and this is the Tour. I don't envy those with the task of over hauling him.
The only way I see him capitulating tamely is if he's off the juice now, presuming he took the juice before, and has returned clean for whatever reason, and consequently lost his Lance mojo.
steve said:
In Beijing 2008
Google Image Result for http://www.velonews.com/files/images/MensPodium.JPG
Podium Monaco 2009
Google Image Result for http://images30.fotki.com/v485/photos/1/1292031/7641080/uzigerRomanMartinTonyPIC41372S-vi.jpg
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