2009 TDF stage 7: Barcelone - Andorre Arcalis 224 km

[limerickman]

Boss Hog Bruyneel.

That's how he's known round these parts.

 

[Mansmind]

I haven't been watching cycling for as many years as most of you guys so there's a lot of prior history I haven't seen.

I can't help but get the distinct feeling however, that this year's tour won't be seeing any BIG statements made by anyone till the Alps. I realize some things happen leading up till then..but it's more like the contenders are just biding there time and keeping themselves in striking position. Some big names have lost significant time and will be doing some things to get as much back as they can I'm sure.

The whole Astana thing seems much deeper than what is actually said. It will be interesting to see how that dynamic changes when the Alps come around. Also seems as if A. Schleck means to be in the middle of it. Cadel Evans is pretty active as well, but doesn't seem able to hang in the climbs quite as well.

Doesn't seem terribly exciting at the moment, but it does seem like it will build up. I think it will be great fun to watch when the Alps come around.

 

[limerickman]

I hope that the race does start to liven up.

 

[Mansmind]

I hope that the race does start to liven up.

What's your opinion on the Astana team? I know the whole discussion is revolving around LA/Contador but there are a couple of other guys there as well. Levi has been in the thick of it most of the time. I haven't actually seen Kloden as much but that doesn't mean he isn't there. What happens if you end up with four of them on a climb instead of 2? I know it's not likely but things happen sometimes. I think it will depend on who is with them. They'll have to balance team against individual at some point. I think we know what LA and Contador will do...they'll elect to fight it out. If the other two are hanging with them, they'll have to decide either between those two or make a decision to go at it themselves.

I also think there's a lot more to be seen from other teams before that takes place. I can't see Astana dominating the top of the race as the current standings suggest. At some point some or all of those favorites will have to work for someone else in a much more definitive way. When they do.. I think you'll start to see other names move up in the overall.

 

[DV1976]

I haven't been watching cycling for as many years as most of you guys so there's a lot of prior history I haven't seen.

I can't help but get the distinct feeling however, that this year's tour won't be seeing any BIG statements made by anyone till the Alps. I realize some things happen leading up till then..but it's more like the contenders are just biding there time and keeping themselves in striking position. Some big names have lost significant time and will be doing some things to get as much back as they can I'm sure.

The whole Astana thing seems much deeper than what is actually said. It will be interesting to see how that dynamic changes when the Alps come around. Also seems as if A. Schleck means to be in the middle of it. Cadel Evans is pretty active as well, but doesn't seem able to hang in the climbs quite as well.

Doesn't seem terribly exciting at the moment, but it does seem like it will build up. I think it will be great fun to watch when the Alps come around.

1) The TTT usually ensures that no surprises happen. It invariably throws out of contention people that have not strong teams around them (e.g Evans).
2) The more mountain finishes there are in the parcours the more exciting the racing is. This year there are 3 mountain finishes, two of those are on a Cat 1 Climb and the last on Mt Ventoux. This is pathetic. Really.
3) The more mountainous the route the more exciting the race. I cant remember a TdF with fewer mountain climbs, both in terms of difficulty and number, that this one.
All in all its a recipe for boredom. Most mountainous stages are like tomorrow's one. Two climbs and then 50k of decent/flat. Who is going to take a risk and attack when they know that they will be caught on the decent??
Really LA couldnt have designed the course any better for himself. The Giro people did a bad job this year by their standards but they are still ages ahead of Prudhomme in designing a parcours that makes for an exciting race.

 

[Mansmind]

1) The TTT usually ensures that no surprises happen. It invariably throws out of contention people that have not strong teams around them (e.g Evans).

Maybe that's the way it will be, I'd hope to see some people get back in it however. It's still possible we'll see.

2) The more mountain finishes there are in the parcours the more exciting the racing is. This year there are 3 mountain finishes, two of those are on a Cat 1 Climb and the last on Mt Ventoux. This is pathetic. Really.

I don't think the course layout is all that great either. Not enough finishes are placed to make the stage a good setting for the real battles. Still, the battle has to come at some point regardless of the course...but yeah I agree with you there.

3) The more mountainous the route the more exciting the race. I cant remember a TdF with fewer mountain climbs, both in terms of difficulty and number, that this one.
All in all its a recipe for boredom. Most mountainous stages are like tomorrow's one. Two climbs and then 50k of decent/flat. Who is going to take a risk and attack when they know that they will be caught on the decent??
Really LA couldnt have designed the course any better for himself. The Giro people did a bad job this year by their standards but they are still ages ahead of Prudhomme in designing a parcours that makes for an exciting race.

Makes sense.

 

[nonns]

Boss Hog Bruyneel.

That's how he's known round these parts.

Thank you very much for the info

 

[limerickman]

What's your opinion on the Astana team? I know the whole discussion is revolving around LA/Contador but there are a couple of other guys there as well. Levi has been in the thick of it most of the time. I haven't actually seen Kloden as much but that doesn't mean he isn't there. What happens if you end up with four of them on a climb instead of 2? I know it's not likely but things happen sometimes. .

I think Astana will provide the winner of this years TDF.

In respect of their team, if you saw yesterdays stage, you would have seen the Astana team had the biggest presence if the elite group (Kloden, LA, AC, and Leipheimer) - all pedalling away with no obvious signs of stress.
They're a very formidable team.

I know it's not likely but things happen sometimes. I think it will depend on who is with them. They'll have to balance team against individual at some point. I think we know what LA and Contador will do...they'll elect to fight it out. If the other two are hanging with them, they'll have to decide either between those two or make a decision to go at it themselves.

I haven't see enough of either rider in this race to say who is the stronger of the two.
Personally I would say AC is the stronger given he is younger, fitter and he did not fall part in the Dauphine as much as LA fell apart in the mountains in the Giro.
Before the LA chamois sniffers get huffy with me.........it is perfectly logical for a 37yo to struggle in a grand tour.
I don't know what I would do if I were Kloden or Leipheimer in that situation - do you support the man who has years of career ahead or do you support the guy who may be around for only one more season.
Hard one to call.

I also think there's a lot more to be seen from other teams before that takes place. I can't see Astana dominating the top of the race as the current standings suggest. At some point some or all of those favorites will have to work for someone else in a much more definitive way. When they do.. I think you'll start to see other names move up in the overall.

I agree with this - but Astana look very very strong thus far and no other team can go head-to-head with them.
If a team like Saxo could get say, Rabo, to work with them, they might have a chance of doing a job on Astana.
But maybe Astana's petrodollars speak more loudly!

 

[nonns]

As a so called LA Chamois sniffer. I'd just like to say I wholly agree with Limerickman.

LA is unlikely to win. He's 37. His build up plans didn't quite work out as expected. Contador is a prodigy.

That the winner will come from Astana is almost without doubt. Cadel Evans will write himself out if he burns up his energy on silly attacks like yesterdays. That he needs to attack is in no doubt but there must be a better place to do it surely.
Personally I wish that the race radios coudl be switched off. Then the riders would have to think for themselves once out on the road. It wouldn't nullify the Astana threat (IMHO) but it might even things up slightly.

 

[Mansmind]

Well, I certainly agree Astana looks very strong... and very similar to some other teams I've watched in the recent past. I've also watched riders blow up quite unexpectedly which while unlikely might happen. One of the dynamics that is different within this particular team is the "who is leader" issue. I think the answering of that question has the potential to cause some problems before the tour is over. T-Mobile had some of those issues and it certainly did. (not that I think it will go that far with them).

Regarding LA/Contador I don't feel too much one way or another. On the one hand for Contador to take a win in addition to his record over the past year or so would be quite an accomplishment. On the other hand, for Lance to come back after a layoff and win 8 would also be one hell of an accomplishment. While Lance is older, he's also got far more experience as a racer. That may not completely nullify the advantage but it does reduce it.

Lim, interesting that you based some of your opinion on Dauphine and the Giro. From what I've read and to some extent seen in recent years, being in "top" form at either of those two didn't necessarily seem to be a good thing for results at the tour?

 

[limerickman]

Lim, interesting that you based some of your opinion on Dauphine and the Giro. From what I've read and to some extent seen in recent years, being in "top" form at either of those two didn't necessarily seem to be a good thing for results at the tour?

I take your point : but the Giro and the Dauphine are the only races which I have seen either rider race this season.

But you're correct, neither rider would have been targetting the Giro/Dauphine, abobe leTour.

 

[mitosis]

So was la's atempt to get away today silly too?

 

[nonns]

No what I was driving at was an attempt to get away on a stage where there is no hopeof sustaining the attack is silly for a GC contender. Evans should keep his strength for the days when he might be able to make a difference.

LA attempted to get away where he could actually make a difference and sustain it. Attacking that far from the finish when the Astana chaps can shut it all down is not the way to do it.

Look lest you think I'm having a downer on Cadel Evans. Every time he tries to do something I'm there cheering the guy. Whilst I'd like to see LA win. I think a win by Cadel would be more of a great thing. He hasn't got a great team behind him. If he wins its becuase he had the strength, the brains and the heart and mind to do it. I'd like to see him stop being the eternal second in the Tour. If he wins it wont be down to his team (well certainly not as much as the Astana boys anyway). I cannot understand why he doesn't find another team.

 

[artemidorus]

So was la's atempt to get away today silly too?

I must have dozed off -when/where did Lance try to get away?

 

[TheDarkLord]

I must have dozed off -when/where did Lance try to get away?

It was a small attempt shortly after the break went away. Oops, that was in stage 9 and not stage 7.

 

[nonns]

Don't think you dozed off. I took that comment to be referring to the contentious day on which Lance went with the break and gained a bit of time on Contador which Contador then made up on the Stage 7. Then again I don't have full coverage of the Tour so perhaps Lance made another attempt.

Ho hum the last two days have been boringsville.

 

[swampy1970]

I think Astana will provide the winner of this years TDF.

In respect of their team, if you saw yesterdays stage, you would have seen the Astana team had the biggest presence if the elite group (Kloden, LA, AC, and Leipheimer) - all pedalling away with no obvious signs of stress.
They're a very formidable team.





I haven't see enough of either rider in this race to say who is the stronger of the two.
Personally I would say AC is the stronger given he is younger, fitter and he did not fall part in the Dauphine as much as LA fell apart in the mountains in the Giro.
Before the LA chamois sniffers get huffy with me.........it is perfectly logical for a 37yo to struggle in a grand tour.
I don't know what I would do if I were Kloden or Leipheimer in that situation - do you support the man who has years of career ahead or do you support the guy who may be around for only one more season.
Hard one to call.





I agree with this - but Astana look very very strong thus far and no other team can go head-to-head with them.
If a team like Saxo could get say, Rabo, to work with them, they might have a chance of doing a job on Astana.
But maybe Astana's petrodollars speak more loudly!

I don't know if the likes of Saxo, Rabo, Silence and Cervello have the horsepower or combined tactical know-how to beat Astana. There's only so much that Voight can do before the Shrek brothers have to do something, Evans isn't capable of doing anything useful on his own (doesn't have the kick), "Mench-off the back" has been more noticable by his inability to keep his time trial bike upright again and missing breaks which kinda rules out the Rabo since Gesink is out too... Sastre looks like the bigger threat - but against Armstrong, Leipheimer, Kloden and Contador?

Lance has actually impressed me the most so far which has been a surprise. Enough nouse to stay far enough up the field all the time and he was doing some monster pulls on the front during the team time trial and still a fair kick in the hills when chasing down breaks. He looks a very different rider to that a few weeks ago in the Giro. Maybe not the Lance of a few years ago but I think he's doing better than expected.

What about Wiggo... Christ on a stick. Not bad for a trackie from the land of flat caps and whippets.

The next time trial should be most interesting as far as the Astana pecking order goes.

 

[JAPANic]

Some devious expectations that wouldn't surprise me.
Contador to get a few punctures... 2 or 3 in succession or some dirty water bottles and Lance's buddies on Team High Road to give a bit of a hand.
As Jan used to say. 'All is fair in cycling'.

 

[artemidorus]

It was a small attempt shortly after the break went away. Oops, that was in stage 9 and not stage 7.

Thanks. (We were talking about stage 9 in the wrong thread.)