300 Watts FTP will get me....



Ergoman said:
Wouldn't it be much more accurate to estimate FTP on the basis of 40K TT speed than it would to estimate 40K TT speed on the basis of a guess at FTP? The point being that what you do in a 40K TT determines FTP, not the other way round.
Why don't you just answer the poster's real question? We all know what you're saying. The poster probably knows it, too. He asks a valid question, and you spin him around with a smart-ass reply.

What you're saying is obvious. What the poster is asking is legit, so why don't you stop showing off and help him out? Let's see what he can expect, and then we can check what he really does.

By the way, the calculator sites quoted above are pretty good starting points for this sort of stuff.

Good luck!
 
Pelotonium said:
Why don't you just answer the poster's real question? We all know what you're saying. The poster probably knows it, too. He asks a valid question, and you spin him around with a smart-ass reply.

What you're saying is obvious. What the poster is asking is legit, so why don't you stop showing off and help him out? Let's see what he can expect, and then we can check what he really does.

By the way, the calculator sites quoted above are pretty good starting points for this sort of stuff.

Good luck!
Good post. This thread has been getting a little sideways from the OP's question.

The Kreuzetter (sp?) calculator is a little more "user friendly"; the analyticcycling site requires the user to make more assumptions/haver greater knowledge of certain aspects of the ride and their profile. There's also "machinehead" software (free download) that's also more user friendly.

Either one of them will at least get you in the ball park.

Dave
 
bikerboy said:
TT's arn't worth upgrade points either because they are bogus.

in a stage race you can upgrade with a TT.

win the TT, sit in for the other stages, win the overall. Now you have more than half the points you need to upgrade!

maybe that only works for cat2 to 1.
 
Pelotonium said:
Why don't you just answer the poster's real question? We all know what you're saying. The poster probably knows it, too. He asks a valid question, and you spin him around with a smart-ass reply.

What you're saying is obvious. What the poster is asking is legit, so why don't you stop showing off and help him out? Let's see what he can expect, and then we can check what he really does.

By the way, the calculator sites quoted above are pretty good starting points for this sort of stuff.

Good luck!

There is no answer to the OP's "real question" because the OP's "real question" is just as bogus as your comments above. Some people want to guess at FTP without doing the work to actually determine it, then they want to use this magic number and a calculator to make a guess based on a guess to guess how they might perform under fantasy circumstances.

Why even ride or train at all? Just estimate what your power would be if you worked out and owned the bike of your dreams. Plug that number into your calculator and then sit back on the couch and eat a bag of chips while you watch the TDF and complain about all the dopers. If you're going to fantisize, you might as well go all the way.
 
Ergoman said:
There is no answer to the OP's "real question" because the OP's "real question" is just as bogus as your comments above.
Your answer to the OP's question was useless. Why didn't you just sit this one out Ergo, instead of trashing the question? Some of us find some use for his question.

For instance, if the OP comes back and tells us that the online calculators were not good at predicting his time, then we've learned something useful. Or if they worked well, then some of us want to know that.

That's a lot better than saying: "if you want to know how fast you'll go on a TT, then do a TT". That's something most of us here already knew.

You see how that works?

And then ... big surprise... you go on and build a strawman:

Why even ride or train at all? Just estimate what your power would be if you worked out and owned the bike of your dreams. Plug that number into your calculator and then sit back on the couch and eat a bag of chips ...
Nice work. Treating people as though their experiences are lower down on the food chain than yours is always going to impress.
 
Ergoman said:
There is no answer to the OP's "real question" because the OP's "real question" is just as bogus as your comments above. Some people want to guess at FTP without doing the work to actually determine it, then they want to use this magic number and a calculator to make a guess based on a guess to guess how they might perform under fantasy circumstances.
The OP has already explained that he does real TTs at his real (current) FTP -- no guesswork about it. What he wanted to know is how much improvement he might see from reaching his goal FTP a couple years down the road. I'm not sure what's 'bogus' or difficult to understand there.
 
Eden said:
Fancy wheels and fancy bikes will shave off seconds, but if you're not already finishing up near the top its probably not going to help you too much.
Fancy wheels and bike with a good position will shave off seconds per kilometre, which over a decent TT adds up quite quickly.
 
Pelotonium said:
Your answer to the OP's question was useless. Why didn't you just sit this one out Ergo, instead of trashing the question? Some of us find some use for his question.

SNIP

Nice work. Treating people as though their experiences are lower down on the food chain than yours is always going to impress.

Pointing out the obvious is sometimes necessary and constructive, especially in a sport often driven by obsession. On the other hand, the insults you've spewed are never necessary.

Either you're just looking for an argument or you need to work on your reading and comprehension skills. In either case, I'm not going to help you.
 
i have done my share of TT's given the experience i have. this is my 3rd year of racing. i went from 185W and 174 pounds in my first TT to 225W and 156 pounds in my most current TT. relative to the time i invest, i am satisfied with my progress up to now. i plan on riding like a man posessed (courtesy: Phil Sherwin and the boys at Versus) in the next couple of seasons. here are two points i must address (briefly):

a.) TT's are unfair, due to who has the toys usually go faster (there are exceptions). but we all have the freedom to upgrade to that equipement. and all the aero toys are legal, so get those toys if you can. otherwise, choose another sport or deal with it. i, and many others, do.

b.)whether or not TT's are valid in upgrade points or helping with bike-handling skills is irrelevent in this thread.

now, to me, 300 watts seems like it would get me something faster than 55 minutes. i did the indiana state TT championships yesterday ( i got 3rd in the Cat4 at 1h3m45s). i ran into a guy who said he could push 375W. i saw his equipement and it was very aero stuff. but he clocked in at like 53 minutes. granted, that is very fast, but with 375 watts, i would expect more! recall my friend who can do a 52m TT at 325 watts. clearly, the 375W guy's position must be bad and my friend's position must be good. i would think that the extra 50 watts would be able to push through the wind despite the poor position on the bike. hmmmmm.
 
vio765 said:
i have done my share of TT's given the experience i have. this is my 3rd year of racing. i went from 185W and 174 pounds in my first TT to 225W and 156 pounds in my most current TT. relative to the time i invest, i am satisfied with my progress up to now. i plan on riding like a man posessed (courtesy: Phil Sherwin and the boys at Versus) in the next couple of seasons. here are two points i must address (briefly):

a.) TT's are unfair, due to who has the toys usually go faster (there are exceptions). but we all have the freedom to upgrade to that equipement. and all the aero toys are legal, so get those toys if you can. otherwise, choose another sport or deal with it. i, and many others, do.

b.)whether or not TT's are valid in upgrade points or helping with bike-handling skills is irrelevent in this thread.

now, to me, 300 watts seems like it would get me something faster than 55 minutes. i did the indiana state TT championships yesterday ( i got 3rd in the Cat4 at 1h3m45s). i ran into a guy who said he could push 375W. i saw his equipement and it was very aero stuff. but he clocked in at like 53 minutes. granted, that is very fast, but with 375 watts, i would expect more! recall my friend who can do a 52m TT at 325 watts. clearly, the 375W guy's position must be bad and my friend's position must be good. i would think that the extra 50 watts would be able to push through the wind despite the poor position on the bike. hmmmmm.

I think TT's are more fair than people think. Its MOSTLY about position and power. The frame, wheels, etc all add a few seconds in the end, but a good position is worth much much more. Many of the old school cat1's that i race with still ride open pro wheels, on round-tubed steel frames and easily go below 55mins.

I think its way to easy to get caught up in the equipment 'arms race', when its really about getting into a fast position, that you are comfortable in. And to do that, you need to spend a lot of time riding in that position.

I do agree with you though, if your position is 'good', with your weight (read small frame), at 300 watts you will probably go under 55mins, i would guess 53-54mins.

just for reference: my team mate last year with an 'ok' position, went 56min @ 315w, but weighed 76kg.
 
Alex Simmons said:
Fancy wheels and bike with a good position will shave off seconds per kilometre, which over a decent TT adds up quite quickly.
It's still not going to take you from a mediocre mid pack TT'er to being on top - ask me how I know.... seriously though. I'm small and light, more of a climber than a TT'er. I have a TT bike because its easier to not have to tear down my road bike a stage races. I have a HED disc and a HED Jett 60 because I was able to get them pretty cheap - yeah they are not the latest and greatest, so maybe I'd shave off a few more seconds if I spent a few $1000.... I'm sure they've improved my TT a bit, but not so much that I'm not still middle of the pack...
 
vio765 said:
i have done my share of TT's given the experience i have. this is my 3rd year of racing. i went from 185W and 174 pounds in my first TT to 225W and 156 pounds in my most current TT. relative to the time i invest, i am satisfied with my progress up to now. i plan on riding like a man posessed (courtesy: Phil Sherwin and the boys at Versus) in the next couple of seasons. here are two points i must address (briefly):

a.) TT's are unfair, due to who has the toys usually go faster (there are exceptions). but we all have the freedom to upgrade to that equipement. and all the aero toys are legal, so get those toys if you can. otherwise, choose another sport or deal with it. i, and many others, do.

b.)whether or not TT's are valid in upgrade points or helping with bike-handling skills is irrelevent in this thread.

now, to me, 300 watts seems like it would get me something faster than 55 minutes. i did the indiana state TT championships yesterday ( i got 3rd in the Cat4 at 1h3m45s). i ran into a guy who said he could push 375W. i saw his equipement and it was very aero stuff. but he clocked in at like 53 minutes. granted, that is very fast, but with 375 watts, i would expect more! recall my friend who can do a 52m TT at 325 watts. clearly, the 375W guy's position must be bad and my friend's position must be good. i would think that the extra 50 watts would be able to push through the wind despite the poor position on the bike. hmmmmm.
I answered your question above: all else being equal going from 225W to 300W on normal TT (flat-rolling) terrain will drop your time from 62min to 55-56 minutes. Now on a hillclimb, it'd drop a lot more!

For 'normal' terrain and TT speeds (40-45 kph) here's the formula:
t2 = t1 * (p2/p1)^(-0.37)

t1, p1 are known times and power
t2, p2 are projected time given estimated power

if you get up around Pro/pursuit speed the exponent ought to be a tad sharper. Much less than 40 kph and it ought to be blunter. That's why I gave a spread of one minute.

Comparing to other people's power/speed is really a mug's game. Even different tires can add up to ten's of seconds over 40k. Different aero drag factors can add up to minutes.
 
rmur17 said:
Even different tires can add up to ten's of seconds over 40k. Different aero drag factors can add up to minutes.

I think my husband can really relate to that - he can kick butt at the indoor computrainer TT's, but almost all, if not all of those guys can take him in the outside, real world. He's big and broad (6'3"/4" ish) and no matter how good his position is he needs to generate a lot more power to go through the air. Even though the computrainer tries to take into account some of those factors he still gets an advantage....
 
vio765 said:
if i went to try a 40k TT at 300 watts, i would have to stop after about 4 minutes! i recently talked with our "local fastman" and he explained he could do a 40k TT at ~325 watts. i figure that i might be able to get up to about 300 watts in a year or two. he regularly does 52-53min 40k's. if that can be done at 325 Watts, what could 300 watts do? 54-55min?
FWIW-I am at 65 kilos, averaged 274 watts for 23.7 miles with a time of 52:59. If you use this average speed of 26.8 mph and extend it to 25 miles then its a time of 55:58 if my math is correct. I dont have my frontal area, etc. calculated, but seat of the pants tells me that if I went 15 watts higher the entire way thats 0.2 to 0.5mph depending on wind. So lets hit middle ground and say 15 more watts is worth 0.3mph, thats 55:21.
The way I estimated a 15 watt increase equals a 0.2 to 0.5 increase in mph was during a flat TT in which the wind was constant (first a tail then a headwind) and I would ocasionally kick it up 15 watts from ABOUT 280 to about 300 and thats the increase in speed it netted me.

Thats my non scientific estimate of time for a 40k at 300 watts and 65 kilos. It is also importat to understand this is with aero helmet, suit, shoe covers, wheels and bike. Of course this is just for me, but were close in weight if nothing else.

Edit:I realize my numbers are not exact so dont go berzerk!! Its just guesstimates!!