40k TT, my first, need ideas on pacing.

[stormer94]

Here's the deal, my first official 40kTT is this weekend. I have limited racing experience but am reasonably fit. Event is at about 4400', I ride at about 2000-2200' of elevation.

I have done some 20 min intervals.
20 min TT pace, 268 watts, average HR 157, done at 3800 ft elevation. I'm 170 pounds 41 y.o. My tested max HR is 177, I did these with a bit of reserve, like there is a percent or two left. Like maybe I could pull 272-275 for the same period. But was QUITE happy when they are done.


I don't have a power meter on the bike for this event. So I'm going off of perceived effort, and HR.

My HR zones are:
1: <105
2: 106-128
2: 129-142
4: 143-158
5: >159

From what I read on the forums here, consistency is the key in a reasonably flat TT. That said, I was planning on going out and holding a HR of about 155 for the first few minutes, and bounce around just short of 160. If I'm feeling my oats, dabble over 160 now and then. Maybe try and hold 165 for the last 5-10 minutes. I've done some 24 mile race pace stuff at 155avg HR, but it was hilly. And it seems when I examine my hard efforts, over say an hour, the HR avg is always 155-157 (and it usually feels like that's all I have to give and still survive the event).

Thanks for any pacing ideas and help.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Here's the deal, my first official 40kTT is this weekend. I have limited racing experience but am reasonably fit. Event is at about 4400', I ride at about 2000-2200' of elevation.

What do you know about the course's topography? Is it a loop? Out/back? One way? What is the average wind speed and direction at that time of year?

 

[frenchyge]

Elevation change may be worth a couple beats; same with race adrenaline. Try to quantify your HR difference during warmup if possible, but expect to be able to hold a slightly higher HR during the race than you do in training due to the environmental factors. 155 is probably a good initial target, then ramp up slowly based on RPE. Good luck and let us know how it goes.

 

[stormer94]

What do you know about the course's topography? Is it a loop? Out/back? One way? What is the average wind speed and direction at that time of year?

It's your fault I'm even going to this event... lol... (But I'm glad you pointed it out.)

It's an out and back, supposedly pretty flat, with a slight section of 2% here and there, but not much as I'm told. Gonna be around 10am, usually the wind doesn't do much until the afternoon. As an amateur meteorologist (I think we all are) I'd guess into the wind on the way out, with the wind on the way back, and about 3-4mph of it. I'm more concerned with the 4400 feet of elevation.

Also, a 12% chance of rain, 47% cloud cover, maybe 65 degrees at start time (which doesn't make me particularly happy, I hate the temperature that's right on the edge of should I wear sleeves and leg covers), I bet it's cold enough a person wants to wear them, maybe 40-50% humidity, that'll make it seem cooler too.

Cooler are is denser, and not faster. Based on a pile of good old guessing and pace work, I'd like to come in under 66 minutes (2:45 pace, or 21.81mph), and the closer to 63 (2:37 pace, or 22.92mph), the happier I will be about it. I'm confident I could do the 2:37 pace at 2100 feet. I'm more concerned about what will happen to my pace and HR at 4400 feet.

 

[stormer94]

I'm concerned about the turnaround too. In my limited racing experience, I've noticed that the people I was with tended to sit up, coast in to the turnaround and slowly build back up to speed. I'm almost thinking about hauling butt right up to the point you have to nearly skid to make the corner, use the recovered HR you've gained over the last 5-10 seconds coming into the corner to get you back up to speed and flying ASAP. I'm thinking the turnaround is pretty important.

 

[RapDaddyo]

It's your fault I'm even going to this event... lol... (But I'm glad you pointed it out.)

Guilty as charged.

It's an out and back, supposedly pretty flat, with a slight section of 2% here and there, but not much as I'm told. Gonna be around 10am, usually the wind doesn't do much until the afternoon. As an amateur meterologist (I think we all are) I'd guess into the wind on the way out, with the wind on the way back, and about 3-4mph of it. I'm more concerned with the 4400 feet of elevation.

If you know the route, you can get the topography with software such as that offered by DeLorme. It's a pretty big deal to know how many grade changes there are. Very few courses are flat. I think you're probably off by 2:1 on the wind. The wind now is out of the East, due to a low pressure system. If that moves out of the area before your event, the wind will probably be out of the West. The event is near Billings, right? Average wind speed in Billings in August is 9.5mph, which is consistent with forecast winds through the weekend. See http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/avgwind.html. A 9.5mph wind is also a pretty big deal for pacing strategy. It's essential to know the topography before getting into a pacing strategy.

Also, a 12% chance of rain, 47% cloud cover, maybe 65 degrees at start time (which doesn't make me particularly happy, I hate the temperature that's right on the edge of should I wear sleeves and leg covers), I bet it's cold enough a person wants to wear them, maybe 40-50% humidity, that'll make it seem cooler too.

Personally, I think this pales in comparison with topography and wind for a pacing strategy.

 

[stormer94]

Guilty as charged.

saddist bastage....

Event, is in Belgrade, here is the link to the weather:
Link to the weather

Maybe I'll look into the topo stuff. Or at the very least hit the course in my car the day before, give it the "hairy eyeball"...

Looks to me as though the course goes north for about 4-5 miles then west for about 7, then turns around and comes back.

 

[RapDaddyo]

saddist bastage....

Event, is in Belgrade, here is the link to the weather:
Link to the weather

Maybe I'll look into the topo stuff. Or at the very least hit the course in my car the day before, give it the "hairy eyeball"...

Looks to me as though the course goes north for about 4-5 miles then west for about 7, then turns around and comes back.

So, the nearest reporting station is Helena, not Billings. Not much different -- 9mph vs. 9.5mph. Don't rely on the wind forecast -- it's too far out. You're better off working on a plan that assumes 9-10mph out of the West because that's probably more likely than the current forecast. (BTW, I'm a pilot). Again, the topo is key to pacing strategy. Suggest that you download topo software asap.

 

[stormer94]

So, the nearest reporting station is Helena, not Billings. Not much different -- 9mph vs. 9.5mph. Don't rely on the wind forecast -- it's too far out. You're better off working on a plan that assumes 9-10mph out of the West because that's probably more likely than the current forecast. (BTW, I'm a pilot). Again, the topo is key to pacing strategy. Suggest that you download topo software asap.

Pilot eh? buddy of mine has been working his way up and is now flying Airbus A320's... he *****es about being in all the coolest places, "...Dude, I'm in Maui for the weekend, how's the weather back home.." You want to strangle him... He works (if you can call it that... ) about 65 hours a month. "...Dude, I'm at the anaheim supercross"... "Need anything from Miami?..." He does it to torture me.... He's single to top it all off....

I'd be surprised by that much wind that early. But let's say it's 8mph outta the nw. I've been looking for TOPO software, and have not found anythning download-able... yet.

Let's assume that it's minimally hilly, mostly flat with a few (say 3) small 2 percent rollers that are about .3 miles.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Pilot eh?

Yep. Lately it's been aerobatics -- the kind of stuff you see at airshows. Don't think an Airbus would be much fun in an outside loop.

I'd be surprised by that much wind that early. But let's say it's 8mph outta the nw. I've been looking for TOPO software, and have not found anythning download-able... yet.

Here's one ($39) http://www.digital-topo-maps.com/delorme-demo.shtml

Let's assume that it's minimally hilly, mostly flat with a few (say 3) small 2 percent rollers that are about .3 miles.

Why don't we find out and not assume.

 

[stormer94]

Why don't we find out and not assume.

You're a tough cookie... I'm looking at the software.

 

[stormer94]

Ordered the software, but I don't know that we are any better off. I don't suspect it will be here in time. They have express shipping, which I opted for, but they still say 2-4 days. We'll be gone by then.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Ordered the software, but I don't know that we are any better off. I don't suspect it will be here in time. They have express shipping, which I opted for, but they still say 2-4 days. We'll be gone by then.

What's the course?

 

[stormer94]

What's the course?

Something called the "dry creek road" just north of Belgrade. Goes from Belgrade to Manhattan. A pretty short road, can't be more than 14 miles long.

attached image to the course, you can see "dry creek road" (see attachment)

 

[Catabolic_Jones]

Man, you guys are waaay too technical for me!

The most important thing for me in a TT is to know the course intimately, and know which way, and how strong, the wind is blowing on the day. This is helpful to know when you're going to get free speed and when you will have to push.

I have a good idea how i feel when i'm at OHR and i simply attain it asap and hold it throughout. I just have a lot of confidence in my sense of feel which has always -- knock on wood -- prevented me from going into oxygen debt. If you don't want to rely on feel then I guess hit 90 to 92% of MHR within the first 5 minutes and hang on.

And I try to save something for the last 5 km, rather than blowing it out of the gate.

I also try to sign on right after someone who is roughly my strength. That way, I have a great rabbit to chase. Hopefully you have 1 minute time gaps.

I wouldn't go screaming into the turnaround either. Save that bit of energy for a final sprint to the line.

 

[stormer94]

Man, you guys are waaay too technical for me!

Appreciate the input. I'm starting to feel that a TT is the race of truth, you either have it, or you don't. Can't fake it by sucking a wheel or getting lucky in a break or something. You go, you haul ass, you check your time.

Seriouly, on the technical thing, I think it's half the fun. I truthfully don't know there is much I can do at this point to improve anything, but if there is, I WANT TO KNOW . I know when I've pushed to far, and I think you are spot on with your 90-92% of MHR. For me, that seems to be 159-162, and pretty much the edge I had hope to hit. And what seems to be where I "end up" when I'm really pushing it. Not sure about how the thinner air will effect that. I had really decided about 157average at this point. If I feel better, a bit harder, but there's not much left at 157. Don't want to embarrass myself either. I'm already guessing that if the air doesn't kill me, anything in the 66 minute range would be acceptable, But like to be closer to 63 minutes.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Stormer, I'm doing the topo for your TT route right now. Should be done in less than 1/2 hour. Don't go to bed.

 

[stormer94]

Stormer, I'm doing the topo for your TT route right now. Should be done in less than 1/2 hour. Don't go to bed.

Thanks for coming, enjoy the rest of your evening, tip your waiter, I'll be here all night....

 

[RapDaddyo]

Thanks for coming, enjoy the rest of your evening, tip your waiter, I'll be here all night....

Here's your route topo. I wasn't sure how far out of the towns the start line or turnaround is, so I routed the whole road. That's why this is 25 miles one way. I don't know how well you can read this image, but I'm working on other output options such as PDF files that I could post or send you. You owe me!

 

[RapDaddyo]

Here's your route topo. I wasn't sure how far out of the towns the start line or turnaround is, so I routed the whole road. That's why this is 25 miles one way. I don't know how well you can read this image, but I'm working on other output options such as PDF files that I could post or send you. You owe me!

Hold the fort! You have to put in an intermediate stop or the program assumes you want to take the interstate. I now realize that the intermediate stop was counted twice. The entire route is ~12.5-13 miles. I'm re-doing the chart and will re-post momentarily.