40k TT, my first, need ideas on pacing.

[stormer94]

Here's your route topo. I wasn't sure how far out of the towns the start line or turnaround is, so I routed the whole road. That's why this is 25 miles one way. I don't know how well you can read this image, but I'm working on other output options such as PDF files that I could post or send you. You owe me!

Totally appreciate it. The numbers are completely unreadable (image is to small). Just need the profile part.

Here is the information, might help pinpiont an exact start location... (I feel like Batman...)

Race Location. From west of Belgrade: take the Belrgrade exit off I-90 and head north into town. Turn right on Broadway and go straight through the 4-way stop in the old downtown. Broadway sweeps left about ¾ of a mile past the 4-way stop, and the ball fields are just ahead on your left. From Bozeman or East of Belgrade: take the Bridger Bowl exit off of I-90 (west end of Bozeman), head east on Frontage road until you hit the 4-way stop in downtown Belgrade. Turn right onto Broadway at the stop, proceed about ¾ of a mile to the ball fields on your left.

 

[stormer94]

Here is an educated guess as to the start location. Look for the red dot.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Okay, now I think I have my sh*t together. Here's the new overview and topo of the route. It's basically a long descent from ~4420' to a low of ~4250' at mile 9, then a slight rise to the turnaround. Your return has the little dip and then a long, steady climb to the finish.

 

[stormer94]

Flashback to the 1982 movie, Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Imagine Jeff Spicoli speaking the following lines at a bike race.

"...Whoa, dude, I got this killer information on how to ride from a guy on the internet..."

 

[stormer94]

Okay, now I think I have my sh*t together. Here's the new overview and topo of the route. It's basically a long descent from ~4420' to a low of ~4250' at mile 9, then a slight rise to the turnaround. Your return has the little dip and then a long, steady climb to the finish.

So, from a pacing perspective, and I seriously appreciate your time, it's most generous, what does it all mean? And I'm still hoping for a NW wind, which will about even out the down hill going out and the uphill coming back.

Doesn't look very flat to me. You are much likely to be more used to the map software than I.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Here is an educated guess as to the start location. Look for the red dot.

Yeah, I can find that. I'll re-do from there to the turnaround at 20K.

 

[Doctor Morbius]

Flashback to the 1982 movie, Fast Times at Ridgemont High...

Mmmmmmmmm, Phoebe Cates, mmmmmmmm.

http://www.jim.aquino.com/images/phoebe-cates.jpg

http://mt.hockeybird.com/images/bird/2004/phoebe-cates-white.jpg

I would provide some better links but I'd get banned!!

 

[RapDaddyo]

So, from a pacing perspective what does it all mean? And I'm still hoping for a NW wind, which will about even out the down hill going out and the uphill coming back.

We'll get to that. Let me just get the fu*king software figured out first. I can't figure out how to move the friggin' start point and I don't want to have to start from scratch. Bear with me.

 

[stormer94]

And seriously, A 200 foot elevation change? This thing ain't close to flat...

Swell, he's having trouble, and I ordered what I believe to be the same software.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Doesn't look very flat to me. You are much likely to be more used to the map software than I.

You can work out the grades with the horizontal distance and the vertical rise/drop. After you convert to the same units (e.g., feet) it's rise/run.

 

[RapDaddyo]

And seriously, A 200 foot elevation change? This thing ain't close to flat...

What a whiner! Check the thread by OCRoadie on the Everest Challenge -- 25K feet of climbing in 2 days. Really, now -- 200'?.

 

[RapDaddyo]

I seriously appreciate your time, it's most generous

Lucky for you that the three patent applications I am working on aren't due to be submitted until next Wednesday.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Okay, one more time. This should be pretty close. I put the start as close as I could to the red dot on the image you posted. The finish is probably at the Sales Road cross road.

 

[stormer94]

Well, my first thoughts are this. If it's about .5-1% downhill with some slight 2% tossed in, that if it's calm, speeds of 25-28 on the way out. 20-22 on the way back. I'm thinking go out at like 98% and save the last 2% for the return trip, cause it's gonna be slower and un-nerving to watch time unfold on the way back.

To really think about it, lets say the first 6 miles is all .5% downhill. AND GOD DOES IT PAIN ME TO ASK... is there some kind of formula to put the average guy on a grade, with a speed, and come up with a watt number.... (*ugh, I'm curious about the "W" word.*) I already roughly know how many watts I can hold for a given period. Can we come upw with something I can use on the road without a meter?

 

[RapDaddyo]

And seriously, A 200 foot elevation change? This thing ain't close to flat...

Actually, a quick calculation gives me ~.4% downgrade in the first 9.5 miles, a little 50' of rise in the next ~1.5 miles and then another slight downgrade to the turnaround. Too bad this is the topography. Have ya got a big gear? The first half is going to be pretty fast, especially if you do in fact have a tailwind. You don't want to gear out. If you overcook it a little on the outbound segment, it's not such a big deal since you can back off the throttle and not lose much bike speed. The return segment is the dangerous part, especially if you have a headwind. If you overcook it on the return segment and have to back off the power, you're going to pay a big price because you'll lose a lot of bike speed. More soon. Let me run some numbers.

 

[RapDaddyo]

To really think about it, lets say the first 6 miles is all .5% downhill. AND GOD DOES IT PAIN ME TO ASK... is there some kind of formula to put the average guy on a grade, with a speed, and come up with a watt number.... (*ugh, I'm curious about the "W" word.*) I already roughly know how many watts I can hold for a given period. Can we come upw with something I can use on the road without a meter?

Yes and yes. The algorithms are all here http://www.analyticcycling.com/ and the power management proxy is speed.

 

[stormer94]

Yes and yes. The algorithms are all here http://www.analyticcycling.com/ and the power management proxy is speed.

Yep, was just over there.

For fun, I'm tossing around this idea. Let's say I can hold 200 watts on the return .05%, that seems reasonable. It gets me this: 23.48mph on the last 9.5 miles.

Frontal Area 0.50 m2
Coefficient Wind Drag 0.50 dimensionless
Air Density 0.905 kg/m3
Weight 80.0 kg
Coefficient of Rolling 0.004 dimensionless
Grade 0.005 decimal
Wind Resistance 12.5 kg m/s2
Rolling Resistance 3.1 kg m/s2
Slope Force 3.9 kg m/s2
Cadence 100. rev/min
Crank Length 173. mm
Pedal Speed 1.81 m/s
Average Pedal Force 113.5 kg m/s2
Effective Pedaling Range 70. degree
Effective Pedal Force 292.0 kg m/s2
Speed 10.50 m/s
Power 205.1 watts

 

[stormer94]

If I had to guess, into the wind on the way down.

I don't think I'm gonna run out of gear. I've been working on my cadence, and am quite comfortable at 110-120, in fact, earlier this summer I was convinced that the most efficient place to be, all the time (Ulrich learned it from me) was 83rpm. Now I feel like I'm bogging on a fast section if it's under 100. And 100 topped out in the gears is like 36-37mph.

Although, it looks like a 2% down hill with no wind might get a guy about 33.55mph. That is right at the edge. I've had people tell me to just give up on anything over 35mph, it's not worth the effort. I find that to have some merit and to be possibly inaccurate at the same time. I know for a fact, if I'm coasting at 35mph downhill, a little effort brings that to 37mph. But then again, what's a good recovery worth to you? What's 2mph worth to you?

 

[RapDaddyo]

Yep, was just over there.

For fun, I'm tossing around this idea. Let's say I can hold 200 watts on the return .05%, that seems reasonable. It gets me this: 23.48mph on the last 9.5 miles.

Seems high to me. I never quite get the bike speed the calculator says I should get, so I usually plug in about 0.5% upgrade to compensate and it works out pretty close. I think the formula is for people who don't cast a shadow. You realize the weight is rider + bike, right? 80KG for you and your bike? You're a pretty light guy.

 

[stormer94]

If this is useful, today I was pittering around, doing out and back runs at various average heartrates to come up with an average speed as a comparison. I can hold about 20.2mph @ 130hr, I feel I can hold 155 all day (but not happy about it), and can tickle up against 160 for an hour if need be, that's about 90.3% of my MHR, but that's a max effort. My 20 minute TT is 268watts. That's why I decided I should be easily able to hold 200. No idea. Using watts to calculate and estimate speed and time is a new area for me.