A prediction.

[Anthony Sloan]

John Morgan wrote:

>>Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
>>lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.
>>
>>
>
>I long for the day this becomes reality. Let the naysayers deny the possibilities all they want. I
>trust that technology will surprise us yet again, and we will have some sort of gear hub to replace
>derailers. Question is when, and how much? My only worry is that nobody out there really seems
>motivated to invent a better gear hub...
>
>-John Morgan
>
>
>
>
BingBingBingBing. Correct sir, for the most part, the market doesn't demand a solution to the
external drivetrain. If it ever did, there would be a raft of new internal hub and perhaps some
shaft driven drivetrains.

Punctuated Equilibrium.

A

 

[Bomba]

Slacker wrote:

>>>http://www.pbase.com/image/16417538
>>
>>That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
>>
>
>
> Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

I've heard he's not fussy...

;p

--
a.m-b FAQ: http://www.t-online.de/~jharris/ambfaq.htm

b.bmx FAQ: http://www.t-online.de/~jharris/bmx_faq.htm

 

[Jd]

"Carla A-G" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past.

They already are.

> Once internally geared hubs are improved and lightened in weight, they will be available on all
> geared bikes.

Multiple gears are not really needed.

JDss

 

[Carla A-G]

"JD" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> "Carla A-G" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> > Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past.
>
> They already are.

Still see them on 95% of the bikes out there.

> > Once internally geared hubs are improved and lightened in weight, they
will
> > be available on all geared bikes.
>
> Multiple gears are not really needed.
>
> JDss

Agreed.

- CA-Gss (soon)

Can-Am Girls Kick Ass!

 

[Clydesdalemtb]

Carla A-G wrote:
> - CA-Gss (soon)

Isn't the expectation SO exciting!?!?!?

 

[Bill Wheeler]

On 8 May 2003 12:08:26 GMT, "Slacker" <[email protected]> wrote:

>"Stephen Baker" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>news:[email protected]...
>> Slacker says:
>>
>> >http://www.pbase.com/image/16417538
>>
>> That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
>>
>> Steve
>
>
>Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.

The mind serves properly as a window glass rather than as a reflector, that is, the mind should give
an immediate view instead of an interpretation of the world.
:-]

 

[Shaun Bell]

"Carla A-G" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
> lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

The derailleur is really an evil freakin' pos. I'm still a bit bitter from last week. Solo Ski to
sea, going from skate ski to MTB. Derailleur goes from the back of the bike to the front taking out
my front derailleur, nice! 37K xc run added to the 15K run after the road bike. Maybe next year I'll
be sporting a SS.

Shaun Bell

 

[Slacker]

> >> Slacker says:
> >>
> >> >http://www.pbase.com/image/16417538
> >>
> >> That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
> >>
> >> Steve
> >
> >
> >Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!
>
> Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.

http://www.pbase.com/image/16452000

http://www.pbase.com/image/16452001

http://www.pbase.com/image/16452003

http://www.pbase.com/image/16452004
--
Slacker

 

[Mark Hickey]

Anthony Sloan <[email protected]> wrote:

>Carla A-G wrote:
>> Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
>> lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

>I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.
>
>The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

Internally geared hubs are hardly a "paradigm shift" - they've been around for a LONG time. The
newest ones are somewhat more refined than the old ones - but suffer from the same limitations. And
sadly, that limitation is based on the inherent loss of efficiency from the intermeshing of gears (a
very necessary component of an internally geared hub).

I suppose as material science takes us along the path of better, longer-wearing materials we may see
incremental improvements in the efficiency of an IG hub, but it's going to take a quantum leap to
get us to the point where the losses will be in the same range as a (well-maintained) chain drive.

Hey, I'd like to see it happen too - I just wouldn't put off buying that new drivetrain to wait
for it. ;-)

Mark Hickey Habanero Cycles http://www.habcycles.com Home of the $695 ti frame

 

[Anthony Sloan]

Mark Hickey wrote:
> Anthony Sloan <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>>Carla A-G wrote:
>>
>>>Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
>>>lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.
>>
>
>>I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.
>>
>>The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.
>
>
> Internally geared hubs are hardly a "paradigm shift" - they've been around for a LONG time.

Well aware of that.

The paradigm shift would be when/if 95% of new bikes sported internal hubs. Thanks for the
lesson tho'. ;*)

I'm not saying that this is slated to happen, I'm just saying that no one knows for sure, and
technology has a way of advancing in unexpected directions. I remember thinking woefully to myself
as a kid that I'd never get to be an inventor because everything had been invented!

A

--
My hands are full of thorns but I can't quit groping for the rose.

 

[B. Sanders]

"Anthony Sloan" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>
> Carla A-G wrote:
> > Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared
hubs
> > are improved and lightened in weight, they will be available on all
geared
> > bikes.
> >
> > - CA-G shooting herself in the foot...
> >
> > Can-Am Girls Kick Ass!
> >
> >
>
> I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.

I've spent considerable time trying to invent a replacement for the derailleur. What I really wanted
to invent was a CVT for bicycles. The trouble is, how do you beat the reliability and superior
efficiency of the derailleur? Would automatic shifting or a CVT actually improve cycling in any
substantial way?

Invention most often attempts to replace or improve existing problematic technologies. Paradigm
shifts occur when there is a need for a paradigm shift - such as going from not being able to fly,
to flying. The fact that current derailleur-based drivetrains are up to 99% energy efficient, cheap
to manufacture and super reliable tends to lessen the likelihood of a paradigm shift. To what would
we be shifting? The new technology would have to be substantially better than what currently exists.
It also has to obey the laws of physics.

> The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

Paradigm-shifting technologies evolve steadily. They don't just pop into existence overnight.
Automobiles, jet airliners, computer networking, microwave ovens, personal computers, wireless
telephony, GMO's - all of these technologies evolved over decades before they shifted any paradigms.

Bicycles have evolved, too. The arrival of reliable derailleurs was the paradigm shift.

Barry

 

[Mark Bockmann]

JD wrote:
> Multiple gears are not really needed.

A gear is not really needed. http://www.pedalinghistory.com/PHbikbio.htm

bock

 

[Bill Wheeler]

On 9 May 2003 01:33:12 GMT, "Slacker" <[email protected]> wrote:

>> >> Slacker says:
>> >>
>> >> >http://www.pbase.com/image/16417538
>> >>
>> >> That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
>> >>
>> >> Steve
>> >
>> >
>> >Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!
>>
>> Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.
>
>
>http://www.pbase.com/image/16452000
>
>http://www.pbase.com/image/16452001
>
>http://www.pbase.com/image/16452003
>
>http://www.pbase.com/image/16452004

D'oh!!!!!!!!

bill The mind serves properly as a window glass rather than as a reflector, that is, the mind should
give an immediate view instead of an interpretation of the world.
:-]

 

[Anthony Sloan]

B. Sanders wrote:

>
> Bicycles have evolved, too. The arrival of reliable derailleurs was the paradigm shift.
>
> Barry
>
>
>

I think the fact that recently adult have become interested in bicycles again is one of the huger
paradigm shifts.
--
My hands are full of thorns but I can't quit groping for the rose.