A prediction.

Discussion in 'Mountain Bikes' started by Carla A-G, May 7, 2003.

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  1. John Morgan wrote:

    >>Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
    >>lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.
    >>
    >>
    >
    >I long for the day this becomes reality. Let the naysayers deny the possibilities all they want. I
    >trust that technology will surprise us yet again, and we will have some sort of gear hub to replace
    >derailers. Question is when, and how much? My only worry is that nobody out there really seems
    >motivated to invent a better gear hub...
    >
    >-John Morgan
    >
    >
    >
    >
    BingBingBingBing. Correct sir, for the most part, the market doesn't demand a solution to the
    external drivetrain. If it ever did, there would be a raft of new internal hub and perhaps some
    shaft driven drivetrains.

    Punctuated Equilibrium.

    A
     


  2. Bomba

    Bomba Guest

  3. Jd

    Jd Guest

    "Carla A-G" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
    > Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past.

    They already are.

    > Once internally geared hubs are improved and lightened in weight, they will be available on all
    > geared bikes.

    Multiple gears are not really needed.

    JDss
     
  4. Carla A-G

    Carla A-G Guest

    "JD" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > "Carla A-G" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > > Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past.
    >
    > They already are.

    Still see them on 95% of the bikes out there.

    > > Once internally geared hubs are improved and lightened in weight, they
    will
    > > be available on all geared bikes.
    >
    > Multiple gears are not really needed.
    >
    > JDss

    Agreed.

    - CA-Gss (soon)

    Can-Am Girls Kick Ass!
     
  5. Carla A-G wrote:
    > - CA-Gss (soon)

    Isn't the expectation SO exciting!?!?!?
     
  6. Bill Wheeler

    Bill Wheeler Guest

    On 8 May 2003 12:08:26 GMT, "Slacker" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >"Stephen Baker" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    >news:[email protected]...
    >> Slacker says:
    >>
    >> >http://www.pbase.com/image/16417538
    >>
    >> That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
    >>
    >> Steve
    >
    >
    >Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!

    Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.

    The mind serves properly as a window glass rather than as a reflector, that is, the mind should give
    an immediate view instead of an interpretation of the world.
    :-]
     
  7. Shaun Bell

    Shaun Bell Guest

    "Carla A-G" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
    > lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

    The derailleur is really an evil freakin' pos. I'm still a bit bitter from last week. Solo Ski to
    sea, going from skate ski to MTB. Derailleur goes from the back of the bike to the front taking out
    my front derailleur, nice! 37K xc run added to the 15K run after the road bike. Maybe next year I'll
    be sporting a SS.

    Shaun Bell
     
  8. Slacker

    Slacker Guest

  9. Mark Hickey

    Mark Hickey Guest

    Anthony Sloan <[email protected]> wrote:

    >Carla A-G wrote:
    >> Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
    >> lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.

    >I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.
    >
    >The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

    Internally geared hubs are hardly a "paradigm shift" - they've been around for a LONG time. The
    newest ones are somewhat more refined than the old ones - but suffer from the same limitations. And
    sadly, that limitation is based on the inherent loss of efficiency from the intermeshing of gears (a
    very necessary component of an internally geared hub).

    I suppose as material science takes us along the path of better, longer-wearing materials we may see
    incremental improvements in the efficiency of an IG hub, but it's going to take a quantum leap to
    get us to the point where the losses will be in the same range as a (well-maintained) chain drive.

    Hey, I'd like to see it happen too - I just wouldn't put off buying that new drivetrain to wait
    for it. ;-)

    Mark Hickey Habanero Cycles http://www.habcycles.com Home of the $695 ti frame
     
  10. Mark Hickey wrote:
    > Anthony Sloan <[email protected]> wrote:
    >
    >
    >>Carla A-G wrote:
    >>
    >>>Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared hubs are improved and
    >>>lightened in weight, they will be available on all geared bikes.
    >>
    >
    >>I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.
    >>
    >>The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.
    >
    >
    > Internally geared hubs are hardly a "paradigm shift" - they've been around for a LONG time.

    Well aware of that.

    The paradigm shift would be when/if 95% of new bikes sported internal hubs. Thanks for the
    lesson tho'. ;*)

    I'm not saying that this is slated to happen, I'm just saying that no one knows for sure, and
    technology has a way of advancing in unexpected directions. I remember thinking woefully to myself
    as a kid that I'd never get to be an inventor because everything had been invented!

    A

    --
    My hands are full of thorns but I can't quit groping for the rose.
     
  11. B. Sanders

    B. Sanders Guest

    "Anthony Sloan" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    >
    >
    > Carla A-G wrote:
    > > Rear derailleurs will be a thing of the past. Once internally geared
    hubs
    > > are improved and lightened in weight, they will be available on all
    geared
    > > bikes.
    > >
    > > - CA-G shooting herself in the foot...
    > >
    > > Can-Am Girls Kick Ass!
    > >
    > >
    >
    > I like the easy confidence with which people cast off this notion.

    I've spent considerable time trying to invent a replacement for the derailleur. What I really wanted
    to invent was a CVT for bicycles. The trouble is, how do you beat the reliability and superior
    efficiency of the derailleur? Would automatic shifting or a CVT actually improve cycling in any
    substantial way?

    Invention most often attempts to replace or improve existing problematic technologies. Paradigm
    shifts occur when there is a need for a paradigm shift - such as going from not being able to fly,
    to flying. The fact that current derailleur-based drivetrains are up to 99% energy efficient, cheap
    to manufacture and super reliable tends to lessen the likelihood of a paradigm shift. To what would
    we be shifting? The new technology would have to be substantially better than what currently exists.
    It also has to obey the laws of physics.

    > The problem with paradigm shifts is that you never can see them coming.

    Paradigm-shifting technologies evolve steadily. They don't just pop into existence overnight.
    Automobiles, jet airliners, computer networking, microwave ovens, personal computers, wireless
    telephony, GMO's - all of these technologies evolved over decades before they shifted any paradigms.

    Bicycles have evolved, too. The arrival of reliable derailleurs was the paradigm shift.

    Barry
     
  12. Bill Wheeler

    Bill Wheeler Guest

    On 9 May 2003 01:33:12 GMT, "Slacker" <[email protected]> wrote:

    >> >> Slacker says:
    >> >>
    >> >> >http://www.pbase.com/image/16417538
    >> >>
    >> >> That's no ostrich. That's Emu!
    >> >>
    >> >> Steve
    >> >
    >> >
    >> >Come-on, do you really think *he can tell the difference!
    >>
    >> Yes, I can tell the difference. Emu is much more tender.
    >
    >
    >http://www.pbase.com/image/16452000
    >
    >http://www.pbase.com/image/16452001
    >
    >http://www.pbase.com/image/16452003
    >
    >http://www.pbase.com/image/16452004

    D'oh!!!!!!!!

    bill The mind serves properly as a window glass rather than as a reflector, that is, the mind should
    give an immediate view instead of an interpretation of the world.
    :-]
     
  13. B. Sanders wrote:

    >
    > Bicycles have evolved, too. The arrival of reliable derailleurs was the paradigm shift.
    >
    > Barry
    >
    >
    >

    I think the fact that recently adult have become interested in bicycles again is one of the huger
    paradigm shifts.
    --
    My hands are full of thorns but I can't quit groping for the rose.
     
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