*On average*, a CTL of +10 to +15 appears to results in the greatest probability of one establishing a personal best for power at durations

__<__5 min. At longer durations (i.e.,

__>__10 min), things shift downward a bit, i.e., to +5 to +10 (see the copy of my Performance Manager presentation as hosted on

www.trainwithpower.net for details). However, these values are calculated using an ATL time constant of 7 d, and the absolute value for TSB is dependent upon the magnitude of the ATL time constant (higher time constant = more damping of ATL = smaller swings in TSB). Moreover, there are individual differences to consider, i.e., some people recover more rapidly than others from a big "hit out" (and some of us don't seem to recover as well as we used to!!), such that the above values can only be considered general guidelines. The best suggestion I can make, then, is that you use the Performance Manager as a "retrospectrascope*" through which to view your past successes and failures, and try to figure out what works best for you.

*TM, Alex Simmons, 2005 (or was it 2006?)