Any point to a 2003 TdF?

Discussion in 'Road Cycling' started by onedisciple, Jun 28, 2003.

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  1. onedisciple

    onedisciple Guest

    I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He doesn't
    need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain stages. My own hopes
    that Ulrich would beat him regularly haven't happened and aren't likely to happen, and while it's
    always possible something could happen, bad accident, alien invasion, earthquake, the odds of Lance
    losing, if he is in the same shape as last year are so low, they might as well just give him the
    yellow jersey now and call it a day, and save everyone from three weeks of hard labor. Really, I'd
    rather absolutely anyone in the peloton besides Lance win, but I can't imagine that happening if
    he's in last year's shape. So what's the point of the race? We could hold the sprint days as a
    separate event.
     
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  2. Kyle Legate

    Kyle Legate Guest

    [email protected] wrote:
    > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He
    > doesn't need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain stages.

    He only does this after his team has shattered the field on the lower slopes. If you followed
    previous Tours de France (which is not evident based on your statements) it would be obvious that
    winning is a team effort.

    > My own hopes that Ulrich would beat him regularly haven't happened and aren't likely to happen,
    > and while it's always possible something could happen, bad accident, alien invasion, earthquake,
    > the odds of Lance losing, if he is in the same shape as last year are so low, they might as well
    > just give him the yellow jersey now and call it a day, and save everyone from three weeks of
    > hard labor.

    Accident, illness, an early race break with a surprisingly strong underdog, untimely bonk; all of
    these are possibilities that can cause Lance to lose. However, if you think the overall is the only
    aspect of the race worth following, you're missing most of the race. Too bad for you.
     
  3. > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point?

    I think the point is to determine the winner.

    > He doesn't need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on
    > mountain stages.

    Yes, after his team is done with their work.

    > and while it's always possible something could happen, bad accident, alien invasion, earthquake,
    > the odds of Lance losing, if he is in the same shape as last year are so low,

    Actually, not so low. The older he gets, the more others want to take him out, the small few who
    have won five TDF's, the chance of the aforementioned alien invasion, etc.

    > they might as well just give him the yellow jersey now and call it a day,

    Well, if the actual riders have your mentality, then he very well might be invincible.

    You'll be happy to know that Beloki appears to think he will have Lance's number this year. If he
    can back up the talk....

    --

    Saving Private Ryan Online Encyclopedia http://www.sproe.com/
     
  4. Tritonrider

    Tritonrider Guest

    Big Mig is touting Jan to challenge Lance. http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/4250.0.html Be
    great to see this battle with Jan in shape to start the race. I hope Tyler can hang, and I think
    he's going to. I thought this was going to be "lance goes away with the win" but this is shaping up
    to be a great race. How about Hincapie coming around? Is he going to grab a stage? Bill C
     
  5. Us

    Us Guest

    looking at the stage profiles (thet're up at Cyclngnews.com and elsewghere by now..) there are no
    "easy"stages.. even the first week "flat"stages aren't.. they're full of little rollers and sharp
    short climbs tht should make for interesting racing... just one guys point of view.. the winds just
    died so I'm of to ride.. god but I love summer daylight.. it's 700pm (2100 to some of you) and still
    bright and sunny.

    [email protected] wrote:
    > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He doesn't
    > need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain stages. My own
    > hopes that Ulrich would beat him regularly haven't happened and aren't likely to happen, and
    > while it's always possible something could happen, bad accident, alien invasion, earthquake, the
    > odds of Lance losing, if he is in the same shape as last year are so low, they might as well just
    > give him the yellow jersey now and call it a day, and save everyone from three weeks of hard
    > labor. Really, I'd rather absolutely anyone in the peloton besides Lance win, but I can't imagine
    > that happening if he's in last year's shape. So what's the point of the race? We could hold the
    > sprint days as a separate event.
     
  6. Lewdvig

    Lewdvig Guest

    Its an easy course. It may be decided in the time trails.

    Lance only nabbed 3rd in the Dauphine TT so who knows what might happen.

    <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He
    > doesn't need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain stages.
    > My own hopes that Ulrich would beat him regularly haven't happened and aren't likely to happen,
    > and while it's always possible something could happen, bad accident, alien invasion, earthquake,
    > the odds of Lance losing, if he is in the same shape as last year are so low, they might as well
    > just give him the yellow jersey now and call it a day, and save everyone from three weeks of
    > hard labor. Really, I'd rather absolutely anyone in the peloton besides Lance win, but I can't
    > imagine that happening if he's in last year's shape. So what's the point of the race? We could
    > hold the sprint days as a separate event.
     
  7. [email protected] (TritonRider) wrote in message

    How about
    > Hincapie coming around? Is he going to grab a stage? Bill C

    No.

    -RJ
     
  8. onedisciple

    onedisciple Guest

    --------------000107070609080308060600 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed
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    >
    >
    >
    >He only does this after his team has shattered the field on the lower slopes. If you followed
    >previous Tours de France (which is not evident based on your statements) it would be obvious that
    >winning is a team effort.
    >
    Actually, I have followed previous TdFs, and while my hat is off to Lance's team, I disagree. When
    Lance can take a look at those around him on a big mountain stage, and just ride away from all his
    competitors, his team, other than bringing him water, is not that significant for helping him win.
    They may do a good job of making things easier for him, like patrolling the front of the peleton for
    breaks, but like Indurain, he could have won before regardless of who was on his team. Again, I
    think his team does a great job, and I'd really like to see Hincapie get a break after all these
    years helping someone else win, but I don't think they affect the outcome all that much. You're free
    to disagree of course, but I've never seen a TdF won on those little hills. They are won on big
    mountain stages, where teams are left behind, and on time trials, which are not team activities.
    Lance might lose if his team did nothing for him, but he has won, so far as I can tell, and will
    doubtless win again, on his own.

    Every year people talk about what might happen, e.g., "this other racer is looking good," or
    "Lance could have an accident," or what-have-you, but it never happens, so why bother
    speculating.

    Ken

    >
    >

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    <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> <html> <head> <meta
    http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;charset=ISO-8859-1"> <title></title> </head> <body>
    <blockquote type="cite"> <pre wrap=""><!----> He only does this after his team has shattered the
    field on the lower slopes. If you followed previous Tours de France (which is not evident based on
    your statements) it would be obvious that winning is a team effort.</pre> </blockquote> Actually, I
    have followed previous TdFs, and while my hat is off to Lance's team, I disagree. When Lance
    can take a look at those around him on a big mountain stage, and just ride away from all his
    competitors, his team, other than bringing him water, is not that significant for helping him win.
    They may do a good job of making things easier for him, like patrolling the front of the
    peleton for breaks, but like Indurain, he could have won before regardless of who was on his team.
    Again, I think his team does a great job, and I'd really like to see Hincapie get a break
    after all these years helping someone else win, but I don't think they affect the outcome all that
    much. You're free to disagree of course, but I've never seen a TdF won on those little hills.
    They are won on big mountain stages, where teams are left behind, and on time trials, which
    are not team activities. Lance might lose if his team did nothing for him, but he has won, so
    far as I can tell, and will doubtless win again, on his own. <br> <br> Every year
    people talk about what might happen, e.g., "this other racer is looking good," or "Lance could have
    an accident," or what-have-you, but it never happens, so why bother speculating.<br> <br> Ken
    <br> <blockquote type="cite"> <pre wrap=""> </pre> </blockquote> </body> </html>

    --------------000107070609080308060600--
     
  9. "TritonRider" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > Big Mig is touting Jan to challenge Lance. http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/4250.0.html
    > Be great to see this battle with Jan in shape to start the race. I hope
    Tyler
    > can hang, and I think he's going to. I thought this was going to be "lance
    goes
    > away with the win" but this is shaping up to be a great race. How about Hincapie coming around? Is
    > he going to grab a stage?

    On a team like USPS, the support is not allowed to go for a stage win. Indurain's Banesto was the
    same. The job of everyone on both those teams is to help their leader win the GC, expending energy
    on pursuing stage wins would compromise that.
     
  10. Kyle Legate

    Kyle Legate Guest

    <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...

    >>He only does this after his team has shattered the field on the lower slopes. If you followed
    >>previous Tours de France (which is not evident
    based
    >>on your statements) it would be obvious that winning is a team effort.

    >Actually, I have followed previous TdFs, and while my hat is off to Lance's
    team, I disagree. When Lance can take a look at those around him on a big
    >mountain stage, and just ride away from all his competitors, his team,
    other than bringing him water, is not that significant for helping him win. They may do a >good job
    of making things easier for him, like patrolling the front of the peleton for breaks, but like
    Indurain, he could have won before regardless of who was >on his team.

    His team is responsible for making things hard for the competition. Riding hard enough to discourage
    breakaways is key to ensure that LANCE doesn't have to chase anything down. Lance's role is like a
    matador. Others soften up the bull, and he steps in to inflict the killing blow. A matador _might_
    be able to do the whole job on his own, but he doesn't. It's usually the first bullfighters who get
    gored, while the bull is still fresh.

    >Every year people talk about what might happen, e.g., "this other racer is
    looking good," or "Lance could have an accident," or what-have-you, but it never >happens, so why
    bother speculating.

    This is the whole premise behind playing the lottery, or being successful in life. Do you
    immediately drop everything that you fail to succeed at the first time? "Why bother speculating" is
    a strange attitude given that nothing in life is certain.
     
  11. Kyle Legate

    Kyle Legate Guest

    TritonRider wrote:
    > Big Mig is touting Jan to challenge Lance.
    > http://www.velonews.com/race/int/articles/4250.0.html Be great to see this battle with Jan in
    > shape to start the race. I hope Tyler can hang, and I think he's going to. I thought this was
    > going to be "lance goes away with the win" but this is shaping up to be a great race. How about
    > Hincapie coming around? Is he going to grab a stage? Bill C

    He will finish second at best.
     
  12. Otto

    Otto Guest

    "Lewdvig" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:<[email protected]>...
    > Its an easy course. It may be decided in the time trails.
    >
    > Lance only nabbed 3rd in the Dauphine TT so who knows what might happen.
    >

    get your facts right. lance got 3rd in the PROLOGUE at dauphine.

    He won the TT there. Easily.
     
  13. [email protected] wrote:
    >
    > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point?

    here's a quick solution- don't watch it.

    i'll watch even if it's completely certain he's going to win. i regret not seeing any of the other
    big tdf winners race (too young, or not paying attention at the time). i'm just happy that i get to
    personally witness him dominate the tour.

    heather
     
  14. Davide Tosi

    Davide Tosi Guest

    [email protected] wrote:

    > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He doesn't
    > need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain stages.

    Obviously you do not know anything about pro bicycle racing. No one can win a 3 weeks stage race
    riding as a favourite without a team. Not even Merckx could do it. Someone riding by himself would
    be a victim of "trashcan" breakaways during the first week
     
  15. Sluggo

    Sluggo Guest

    > > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He
    > > doesn't need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain
    > > stages.
    >
    > He only does this after his team has shattered the field on the lower slopes. If you followed
    > previous Tours de France (which is not evident
    based
    > on your statements) it would be obvious that winning is a team effort.

    This is something I don't quite get either. If Lance can accend the climbs faster than anyone else,
    then what he needs to do is get to the base of the climbs with the leading group. He doesn't need to
    cover attacks, as long as he finishes the climb as fast as he can. And if he finishes with a pack of
    riders, then he still wins with the ITT. That's the beauty of races with tough climbs: tactics lose
    out to the strongest climber. For example, when was the last time that a mountain-top finish was not
    won by the best climber, when all the contenders were together at the base of the climb? I'm not
    much of bike race historian, but there is one incident that sticks out: Lance bonking.
     
  16. Lewdvig

    Lewdvig Guest

    I think Eros Poli - the monster sized - Italian, who was not noted for being climber, won a stage in
    the Alps a few years back by attacking on the flats and gaining about nine minutes before the climb
    started. He figured he would need that much time to make up for his lack of climbing efficiency.

    No one took him seriously for the GC - he was probably 30 minutes or more down at that point - so
    they let him go.

    Doubtful that a contender would get so lucky.

    "Sluggo" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    >
    > > > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He
    > > > doesn't need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain
    > > > stages.
    > >
    > > He only does this after his team has shattered the field on the lower slopes. If you followed
    > > previous Tours de France (which is not evident
    > based
    > > on your statements) it would be obvious that winning is a team effort.
    >
    > This is something I don't quite get either. If Lance can accend the
    climbs
    > faster than anyone else, then what he needs to do is get to the base of
    the
    > climbs with the leading group. He doesn't need to cover attacks, as long
    as
    > he finishes the climb as fast as he can. And if he finishes with a pack
    of
    > riders, then he still wins with the ITT. That's the beauty of races with tough climbs: tactics
    > lose out to the strongest climber. For example,
    when
    > was the last time that a mountain-top finish was not won by the best climber, when all the
    > contenders were together at the base of the climb? I'm not much of bike race historian, but there
    > is one incident that sticks out: Lance bonking.
     
  17. Mapei81

    Mapei81 Guest

    >Obviously you do not know anything about pro bicycle racing. No one can win a 3 weeks stage race
    >riding as a favourite without a team.

    LeMond's 1989 win with a very weak ADR team - few of whom (two others?) even finished the race -
    comes very close to disproving that.
     
  18. "Mapei81" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > >Obviously you do not know anything about pro bicycle racing. No one can win a 3 weeks stage race
    > >riding as a favourite without a team.
    >
    > LeMond's 1989 win with a very weak ADR team - few of whom (two others?)
    even
    > finished the race - comes very close to disproving that.

    In the first week of the race, Lemond was not considered a threat to win, therefore his team was not
    expected to keep the race under control.

    If LA's team was weak, he would be more vulnerable.
     
  19. Lewdvig wrote:
    > I think Eros Poli - the monster sized - Italian, who was not noted for being climber, won a stage
    > in the Alps a few years back by attacking on the flats

    Mont Ventoux, even. There's another story attached to it about a bet or an agreement, but I don't
    remember the details. He runs a cafe in Italy now somewhere.
     
  20. Nick Burns

    Nick Burns Guest

    He said "mountain TOP" finish.

    Eros Poli won the 15th stage of the 1994 Tour that went up and over the Ventoux. It finished in
    Carpentras (a town in a valley).

    "Lewdvig" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > I think Eros Poli - the monster sized - Italian, who was not noted for
    being
    > climber, won a stage in the Alps a few years back by attacking on the
    flats
    > and gaining about nine minutes before the climb started. He figured he
    would
    > need that much time to make up for his lack of climbing efficiency.
    >
    > No one took him seriously for the GC - he was probably 30 minutes or more down at that point - so
    > they let him go.
    >
    > Doubtful that a contender would get so lucky.
    >
    >
    >
    >
    > "Sluggo" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    > >
    > > > > I'm no fan of Lance's, but if he's in the same shape as last year, is there any point? He
    > > > > doesn't need a team, as he is always able to simply ride away from everyone on mountain
    > > > > stages.
    > > >
    > > > He only does this after his team has shattered the field on the lower slopes. If you followed
    > > > previous Tours de France (which is not evident
    > > based
    > > > on your statements) it would be obvious that winning is a team effort.
    > >
    > > This is something I don't quite get either. If Lance can accend the
    > climbs
    > > faster than anyone else, then what he needs to do is get to the base of
    > the
    > > climbs with the leading group. He doesn't need to cover attacks, as
    long
    > as
    > > he finishes the climb as fast as he can. And if he finishes with a pack
    > of
    > > riders, then he still wins with the ITT. That's the beauty of races
    with
    > > tough climbs: tactics lose out to the strongest climber. For example,
    > when
    > > was the last time that a mountain-top finish was not won by the best climber, when all the
    > > contenders were together at the base of the climb? I'm not much of bike race historian, but
    > > there is one incident that
    sticks
    > > out: Lance bonking.
    > >
    >
     
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