Unfortunately I don't have a period in my training where I've overreached/over trained, so I don't know what such a CTL increase or curve would be like... Sure I've had ATL spikes caused by rides like the Alta Alpina Challenge that have had a TSS in the mid 500's that have left my legs a bit stuffed for a day or so but those are just one offs.
Perception is a tricky thing. If it wasn't for the "hard facts" of the training sessions that are kept within WKO+ I would have sworn that I was putting out more power across the board last year and that I was both lighter and 'stronger.' The numbers say otherwise and my gains in the hills were all due to weight but it did highlight what a huge difference 10lbs makes on the bigger hills. I don't specifically try to go faster each year in events, partly because the weather in the hills can be very variable but I do look afterwards to see how the ride compared to previous years. Last year was a good year
As far as your on the bike setup goes, if the position you had before works best for you then figure out your torso position and upper arm reach and set the aero bars to match that. Comfort and power can overcome a fair bit of aero loss - look at the positions of very fast guys like Indurain and Armstrong, hardly super aero but they're damned fast. Indurain reportedly spent a large amount of cash of extensive wind tunnel testing and ended up scrapping that position because he was slower in the road because it was uncomfortable and he couldn't put out the same amount of power. Even if you keep your seat position and your upper body angle the same, the fact that your arms are tucked in on aero bars will nearly always give you a more aero position. Find a position that works for you on the bike - not something that looks fast and then use your power meter to test. Andy Coggan posted some good stuff a long time ago about testing aero with regression testing and there's also the "Chung" method that Robert Chung posted on here along with a nice add on for Golden Cheetah. Sometimes your expectation of what looks aero and what really is aero can be two quite different things...
Perception is a tricky thing. If it wasn't for the "hard facts" of the training sessions that are kept within WKO+ I would have sworn that I was putting out more power across the board last year and that I was both lighter and 'stronger.' The numbers say otherwise and my gains in the hills were all due to weight but it did highlight what a huge difference 10lbs makes on the bigger hills. I don't specifically try to go faster each year in events, partly because the weather in the hills can be very variable but I do look afterwards to see how the ride compared to previous years. Last year was a good year
As far as your on the bike setup goes, if the position you had before works best for you then figure out your torso position and upper arm reach and set the aero bars to match that. Comfort and power can overcome a fair bit of aero loss - look at the positions of very fast guys like Indurain and Armstrong, hardly super aero but they're damned fast. Indurain reportedly spent a large amount of cash of extensive wind tunnel testing and ended up scrapping that position because he was slower in the road because it was uncomfortable and he couldn't put out the same amount of power. Even if you keep your seat position and your upper body angle the same, the fact that your arms are tucked in on aero bars will nearly always give you a more aero position. Find a position that works for you on the bike - not something that looks fast and then use your power meter to test. Andy Coggan posted some good stuff a long time ago about testing aero with regression testing and there's also the "Chung" method that Robert Chung posted on here along with a nice add on for Golden Cheetah. Sometimes your expectation of what looks aero and what really is aero can be two quite different things...
