Australia: Likely Team and Medal Prospects in Beijing

[Crankyfeet]

I asked thunder in the FID if he could possibly give a rundown of Australia's medal hopes in the Olympics and he PM'd me a typically informative/in-depth thunder reply. He also recommended I forward it to classic1 for comments as classic has ridden at domestic pro level in Australia and knows the Aussie track scene.

Here were the responses:

Road team

Rogers
Evans
Davis
O'Grady
Cooke
Gerrans
Lloyd

5 spots for the rr, of which, they have to field tt spots. I think we have 2 spots, because NZ are not fielding a tter and NZ won the Oceania Champs, assume McCauley or Odlin won that.

If Evans rides the tt, he will be equal favourite with Canc. Rogers might be good for top 5. If Australia are not granted the tt spot, Evans has to ride. Misplaced loyalty might see Rogers get the ride tho.

In the rr the competition for spots will be tough. I think Allan Davis has to go, because he rides circuits almost as good as Freire, and he can finish off a sprint after 260kms better than any other Australian.

I would take Evans, Ogrady, Davis, Rogers and probably Cooke. It is a toss up between Gerrans and Cooke for the last spot, if the Hamburg Vattenfal Cyclassics is before the Tour, that might be a good selection race for Lloyd, Cooke and Gerrans for the last spot. I dont think Barloworld will ride it though, which will hurt Cooke's chances.

I would be more in favour of taking riders who can take their own chances, and to potentially help out a leader in the final stages of the race, and not to work earlier. I would not be taking Gerrans and Lloyd to do domestique work in the first 150 kms. Let the Italians and the Spaniards do the heavy lifting.

I think the team will be Evans Rogers Ogrady Gerrans and Lloyd.

I would take Evans, Rogers, Cooke, Ogradys and Davis.

Decent chance for medal in the rr.



Track got spots in individual pursuit, team pursuit, points, keirin, team sprint, match sprint.

I think the only chances for a medal are the team pursuit, and the points race. I dont think the sprint guys can bring home a medal, the sprint field is just so deep at the moment.

I dont know who is in the team, Bayley for match sprint and keirin, and maybe the team sprint, Kelly for the keirin and team sprint maybe, French perhaps for all three events he is the fastest rider in the leadoff position in the team sprint, and Dan Ellis perhaps in the team sprint.

Dont think they will win anything.

Track endurance, I think Cam Meyer is the best shot at gold. He is a good chance for a medal. In the team pursuit, I think they should medal, I dont think they will win gold, GB should win, but dont right off the Danes and the New Zealanders. Who knows what the guys will be doing in terms of medical programs.

Mcgee cant win the ip. And Roberts will not be in the top 10.

I am not sure how many spots there are for the team. I would like to see the team include Jack Bobridge and Leigh Howard at the expense of Luke Roberts, in the teams pursuit. Bobridge was the strongest teams pursuiter at the Manchester worlds Jono said, I assume they had the benefit of power outputs and lap tmes from Mckenzie. Bobridge is not a huge rider, only 5'10" and about 155lbs, so he is not great wind break for slipstream. Probably bigger than Jamieson however.

The team was without Lancaster who was injured for the Manchester worlds. That guy is the equivalent to GB's Ed Clancy, the strong guy of the Aus team pursuit. Brownie is also a great rider in the pick-up leadoff posi. So still some improvement for the teams pursuiters.


Track

Mcgee
Lancaster
Roberts
Brown
Jamieson
Meyer
Bobridge
(Howard)

Bayley
Kelly
Ellis
French



And there's no madison spot, as they did not qualify a team.


Reasons why did not qualify a madison spot:

Increased competition at the world cups which are now the qualifiers. The best madison riders are in Europe on Protour teams, and have to ride the road calendar which means they need to rest in October/November then start the base, instead of coming into form for the track calendar. And no real continuation of madison pairings. There are about a dozen riders who have been rotated through madison team pairings. And classic1 will say the madison skills of the current crop of young guys suck, their changes suck, and assume the entire skill set is about as sloppy as that. At world cup and pro 6-day level, they cannot ride with that lack of competency. (So classic bangs my ears off about)

And classic added:

The track riders can potentially medal in every event, but like thunder said, its unlikely.

I reckon TP will be a silver, maybe McGee silver or bronze in the IP, probably a medal in the Keiran (lottery, Hoy is the top favourite for GB) and team sprint (bronze).

Would not be surprised if they shanghai O'Grady or Brown into the points race. Either are capable of winning it in top form. I reckon Meyer is class but the Olympics is a huge step up from world cups and even the worlds.

As for the sheilas [women], Meares will likely medal in the sprint but wont win Gold (Pendelton too good IMO), and that Mactier is capable of a win in the pursuit if she farkin starts listening to the coaches and doesn't go out as stupidly fast as she normally does.

 

[thunder]

I asked thunder in the FID if he could possibly give a rundown of Australia's medal hopes in the Olympics and he PM'd me a typically informative/in-depth thunder reply. He also recommended I forward it to classic1 for comments as classic has ridden at domestic pro level in Australia and knows the Aussie track scene.

Here were the responses:




And classic added:

the key to getting Graeme de Bruijn to ride, is stem selection. If you get the right stem, you can balance a hamburger on it, and you can get Brown to do anything. Those Cinelli bulls horn stem-bar combos are perfect.

 

[Wilchemy]

the key to getting Graeme de Bruijn to ride, is stem selection. If you get the right stem, you can balance a hamburger on it, and you can get Brown to do anything. Those Cinelli bulls horn stem-bar combos are perfect.

LOL

Maybe throw him a poffertje every second lap?

 

[classic1]

He also recommended I forward it to classic1 for comments as classic has ridden at domestic pro level in Australia and knows the Aussie track scene.

Pffftttt

On a sporting level my cycling career was about the equivalent of playing reserve grade AFL footy for the Nar Nar Goon Mudguppies in the Bumfark and District football league. Except they pay more at Nar Nar Goon than for riding a bike.

 

[classic1]

As for the sheilas [women], Meers will likely medal in the sprint but wont win Gold (Pendelton too good IMO), and that Mactier is capable of a win in the pursuit if she farkin starts listening to the coaches and doesn't go out as stupidly fast as she normally does.

Ha ha. What a dumbarse. Can't even spell 'Meares' properly.

 

[Crankyfeet]

Ha ha. What a dumbarse. Can't even spell 'Meares' properly.

Yes you can... that was a typo of mine when I translated it across... there.... fixed it.

 

[Crankyfeet]

Pffftttt

On a sporting level my cycling career was about the equivalent of playing reserve grade AFL footy for the Nar Nar Goon Mudguppies in the Bumfark and District football league. Except they pay more at Nar Nar Goon than for riding a bike.

Hey... if I can call myself a pro cricketer... you can call yourself a pro cyclist...

 

[classic1]

Yes you can... that was a typo of mine when I translated it across... there.... fixed it.

Good thing Sergei Sukhoruchenkov or Djamolidine Abdoujaparov aren't riding this year.

Harder to spell Sergei Sukhoruchenkov in Russian.though. Сергей Сухорученков. Do Russkies write in Martian or something?

 

[thunder]

Good thing Sergei Sukhoruchenkov or Djamolidine Abdoujaparov aren't riding this year.

Harder to spell Sergei Sukhoruchenkov in Russian.though. Сергей Сухорученков. Do Russkies write in Martian or something?

ghey

 

[Crankyfeet]

So will we win more medals than NZ? I'm aware from the WC that Britain are obviously going to dominate the medal table.

What's happened to Bayley that he has receded from being the world's best sprinter four years ago when he won gold in Athens?

 

[thunder]

So will we win more medals than NZ? I'm aware from the WC that Britain are obviously going to dominate the medal table.

What's happened to Bayley that he has receded from being the world's best sprinter four years ago when he won gold in Athens?

not sure, the NZs prolly will win the women's ip, with Sarah Ulmer.

Not sure if Henderson and the fat guy Roulston are riding the madison. Roulston has been told to focus on the teams pursuit and the ip. Henderson is one of the best points riders in the track, so he is a good chance.

Track endurance, if they have qualified in the madison, the New Zealanders have better chances than Australia. They have been able to focus on most events, and get some good track training and work on their power. The Aus endurance guys are riding 1000kms racing on the road, and wont have the speed they could.

That said, the Australians are a few levels above the Kiwis for talent, but the Australians have a little gap in the teams pusuit. The Kiwis have got a 20 and 21 yo in Gough and Bewley who are the right age, with Roulston and Marc Ryan, and they are all about 6'2". The average of the pursuit team is about 6'3" 80kgs. Ryan is almost 6'6" I think. They could really impress in the teams. Roulston could get a medal in the ip, I think he will beat Mcgee. Henderson should be a favourite for the podium, probably Kiryenka, the Tinkoff guy who won the worlds in the scratch I think and a stage in the Giro will be the favourite, and some of the 6days pros. Hendo and Rolly could win a shiny colour in the madison.

I dont think they stand a chance in the sprints.

On the road, they have no chance.

So, I would say, they have an even chance of coming away with the same medal count. I dont think we will win a medal in the sprint track, but maybe a medal in the endurance, most likely the teams pursuit. In womens, they will gold with Ulmer and Katie Mactier might win a minor medal for Australia, plus the new young woman is a chance for Australia too. I think the womens sprint wont win jack, the Meares sisters have not got it over the Euros anymore.

Our biggest advantage is on the road, where there should be atleast a medal on the road in both the mens and womens.

 

[classic1]

Ulmer retired you idjut.

 

[thunder]

Ulmer retired you idjut.

well, she might come back out