Basso's domination

Powerful Pete said:

I believe we are over-estimating Vino. He is a great rider, but has demonstrated that he always has a jour sans in the TdF, which takes him out of contention.

I think Valverde is still a bit young... in interviews he states he is going to the Tour for a stage and a top five placing is his greatest ambition. He rates himself as part of the coming generation (and not the present one) of GT riders...

I also wonder about Savoldelli...

The whole Saiz/Fuentes case could either boost Vino or it will be a handicap.... And yes he always has a bad day in a Grand tour...

Hi all, i personally hope that riders like Iban Mayo and co will achieve greater things this year at the TDF, i know that he struggles with his TT and this year there are some long TT's that will surely count him out. But i always felt that when watching the tour that riders like him and a few others didnt attack because they possibly thought that they did not really stand a chance, i once read somewhere that Armstrong had almost tamed the Peloton after so many victories, althought towards the end riders like Basso, ect... didnt seem to be botherd by Lances reputation. Perhaps that is down to the diffrent coaches making there team leaders more confident. I think this is especially true for Basso as before he was manged by CSC he didnt seem to have half the confidence that he has now. A true sign of a great coach. I like Basso and in fact all the pro's they are real hard nuts, but i think that the Giro could possibly have taken more out of Basso than he thinks, but he may prove me wrong, and i hope he does. I think that the fact that Armstrong has gone confidence may be higher in most of the key riders so this year it could be mayhem which will make great viewing!!! i cannot wait. cheers

you raise some interesting points in your post. last year's tdf really lacked drama in any respect, save for some individual stages. the t-mob really had me confused in their inability to use a wonderfully strong team to wear disco down in every phase of the tour. add a few other team attacks, and armstrong may not have had his seventh. perhaps without armstrong we will have some better and more daring attacks in this race.

slovakguy said:

you raise some interesting points in your post. last year's tdf really lacked drama in any respect, save for some individual stages. the t-mob really had me confused in their inability to use a wonderfully strong team to wear disco down in every phase of the tour. add a few other team attacks, and armstrong may not have had his seventh. perhaps without armstrong we will have some better and more daring attacks in this race.

I think it will be a very open race, don't see any team dominating the TdF yet. But than again maybe it's just wishful thinking...

superdanuk said:

Too soon for contador he'l be best served gaining experience at the tour and then having a go at the overall at the vuelata this year.
Menchov is a dark horse for the tour and definitly has a shot at the top 5 i think. He's probably going unnoticed by many because of his lack of racing this year and all the fuss and hype around Basso v Ullrich

I believe that Contador is close to the age than Jan was when Jan won his first. It seems to me that the guy who outclimbed and out TTd Valverde in the Tour of Romandie should be taken seriously. The biggest opportunity killer for him would seem to be that he will be required to ride for Vinakourov.

Agree with your take on Menchov. The Dauphine might show if he is ready.

cyclingheroes said:

I think it will be a very open race, don't see any team dominating the TdF yet. But than again maybe it's just wishful thinking...

I have the same take. I don't think that Sastre will be able to break up the lead group like he did in the Giro. By the time that Sastre is out of gas there will still be many people on Basso's wheel. Basso will have to either ride them off himself or finish in small lead groups. I believe that the later option is more likely. In my opinion, the difference will be that Basso will out TT the guys that are able to climb with him. But his winning margin will be small.

saluki said:

I believe that Contador is close to the age than Jan was when Jan won his first. It seems to me that the guy who outclimbed and out TTd Valverde in the Tour of Romandie should be taken seriously. The biggest opportunity killer for him would seem to be that he will be required to ride for Vinakourov.

Agree with your take on Menchov. The Dauphine might show if he is ready.

Contador is a fine talent - no doubt.

It will be very interesting to see how he progresses.

Hi all, Menchov has been spoken of highly on this thread, but in my ignorance he is one of those riders that i have never really followed, what are is strenghts and what has he achieved in the past? (I have heard about him mentioned in race commentary ) . I like the idea of an outsider winning it makes for great viewing. So if Menchov is riding in support of Vino do you think it could be a two team leader strategy, waiting to see who has the best form in the event? Or will he be made to stay as domestique? Very similar to the Ullrich and Kloden scenario a couple of years ago, where kloden was the greater rider by far but was being hasled to support Ullrich. All in all, i think Basso's gonna have his work cut out controling the race even with a strong team around him, i cannot put my finger on it but the TDF always seems that bit more frantic. Lots of crashes, hero type brakeaways and massive pressure in the mountains. For me there is something that the Vuelta and the Giro lack (althought they are great races) that the TDF has, whether it is the publicity i dont know. Cheers .

saluki said:

I believe that Contador is close to the age than Jan was when Jan won his first. It seems to me that the guy who outclimbed and out TTd Valverde in the Tour of Romandie should be taken seriously. The biggest opportunity killer for him would seem to be that he will be required to ride for Vinakourov.

Agree with your take on Menchov. The Dauphine might show if he is ready.

Seems to me that the battle for the white jersey could be as interesting as the battle for the yellow!.
Agree with what you say about contador if vino has his traditional off day in mountains then maybe contador will be let of the leash a bit and shw what he can do

nath1 said:

Hi all, Menchov has been spoken of highly on this thread, but in my ignorance he is one of those riders that i have never really followed, what are is strenghts and what has he achieved in the past? (I have heard about him mentioned in race commentary ) . I like the idea of an outsider winning it makes for great viewing. So if Menchov is riding in support of Vino do you think it could be a two team leader strategy, waiting to see who has the best form in the event? Or will he be made to stay as domestique? Very similar to the Ullrich and Kloden scenario a couple of years ago, where kloden was the greater rider by far but was being hasled to support Ullrich. All in all, i think Basso's gonna have his work cut out controling the race even with a strong team around him, i cannot put my finger on it but the TDF always seems that bit more frantic. Lots of crashes, hero type brakeaways and massive pressure in the mountains. For me there is something that the Vuelta and the Giro lack (althought they are great races) that the TDF has, whether it is the publicity i dont know. Cheers .

Menchov rides for a different team than vino, your thinking of contador who is like menchov a possible dark horse but will be forced to support vino.
Your right about the tdf been more frantic, i think the hype gets to some of the riders and makes them nervous which is why you get so many crashes in first week

I am not so sure the Tour is harder than the Giro. Perhaps only in being a crucible of attention and psychological pressure. Certainly, if one compares parcours, the Giro is the tougher race.

Now, of course, the competition is not only of a higher calibre at the Tour, but, in general, the riders are sharper -- on better form. I find only this last argument to be telling when looking at Basso's possibility for a double. The thing that really mitigates here, though, is just how dominant Basso was in the Giro. Jan wins the TT. Big deal. He got his ass absolutely handed to him in the mountains.

I will wait for the Tour de Suisse before I make a final prediction. Unless the Kaiser has got his climbing together, I really do think he will be exposed for big losses in the Alps by Basso -- tons of TT km's or no. I wonder if Jan will even get on the podium. I am looking for someone else, actually, to threaten Basso. Landis? Valverde? Vino?

It's going to be interesting.

nath1 said:

Hi all, Menchov has been spoken of highly on this thread, but in my ignorance he is one of those riders that i have never really followed, what are is strenghts and what has he achieved in the past?

I can tell you what I saw of Menchov in last years Vuelta.

In the TT he was either the best or close to the best. Vuelta TTs are not necessarily the most competitive in the world, but it was enough to indicate that Menchov is not a weak TTer.

In the mountains, no one was able to drop Menchov, including a doped up Herras. And the climbing competition in the Vuelta is brutal. The only time that anyone got to him was when Herras and three of his teammates were able to isolate and attack him in a multiclimb stage. Mechov was riding for Rabobank and basically had zero help the minute the road went up. Still, after Herras doping disqualification, Menchov was the Vuelta winner.

saluki said:

I can tell you what I saw of Menchov in last years Vuelta.

In the TT he was either the best or close to the best. Vuelta TTs are not necessarily the most competitive in the world, but it was enough to indicate that Menchov is not a weak TTer.

In the mountains, no one was able to drop Menchov, including a doped up Herras. And the climbing competition in the Vuelta is brutal. The only time that anyone got to him was when Herras and three of his teammates were able to isolate and attack him in a multiclimb stage. Mechov was riding for Rabobank and basically had zero help the minute the road went up. Still, after Herras doping disqualification, Menchov was the Vuelta winner.

Yes that's correct, i stated more than once (in another thread) that Menchov was ill during last years TdF and i expect him to ride a top 5 and maybe podium....

cyclingheroes said:

Yes that's correct, i stated more than once (in another thread) that Menchov was ill during last years TdF and i expect him to ride a top 5 and maybe podium....

Will Rassmussen ride for Menchov this year? Can a double Dekker help?

saluki said:

Will Rassmussen ride for Menchov this year? Can a double Dekker help?

It's said (at Rabo) that Rasmussen will ride for Menchov, but having said that... Rasmussen is known as being not really a team player (which is the reason that Riis didn't want him in the team anymore..)

Its going to be pretty hard for anyone to beat Basso in LeTour is he can peak like he did in the Giro.

The mountain stages in France won't let him exert his dominance as easily tho'.

Basso - I think he has to be the favourite my a long margin. I would like to see some more help via another CSC climber, as I agree with most that Sastre is not in the same league as Azevedo or Heras. Basso's TT has improved immensely and given the fact there wont be many high mountain stages, i suspect the pace will be on a little earlier on the rise. We're used to solid pace making on the mountains until the ultimate climb in the Disco era, but that just wont be the case here.

Ullrich - Too much doubt. We havnt seen his climbing ability this year yet.

Valverde - What a rider. The stage in 05' where he outsprinted Armstrong was amazing. I think he'll come in 2nd.

Evans - All the talk about Condator, when this guy is clearly a stronger rider. Winner of Romandie and only gets better with more miles. Will improve on 8th last year.

Its likely that ullrich will lead going into the mountains after the first tt. This would make T-Mobile have to take the lead during the early mountain stages, this is good for csc as it takes the pressure of them early on and lets basso keep his key riders (sastre etc) fresher for longer. Basso will win this tour because ullrich wont be able to hang on to him in the mountains.

entwidomela said:

Basso - I t

Evans - All the talk about Condator, when this guy is clearly a stronger rider. Winner of Romandie and only gets better with more miles. Will improve on 8th last year.

Absolutely! We have been ignoring Cadel and that's probably not fair. I don't know that I agree that Cadel is stronger than Contador in general, but given the layout of this years TDF, it should favor Cadel's strong points over Contador's. Besides, Contador will probably be stuck riding for Vino. In any case, we should acknowledge Cadel's improvement and see him as a solid top 5 contender.

Concerning Ullrich, if he is ever going to bring it, it better be this year. I don't think that he will have another course so ideally suited for him in the few years that he has left to race.

Hi all, i saw Menchov in the Dauphine today, i must admit that he does look a good poss for the TDF, a good rival for Basso. What did you all make of Landis and vino? I cannot understand why riders like Landis, hamilton who all rode for disco dont make for better opponents. For instance in the past TDF's where these two were riding for there own teams as leaders they never managed what so ever to make Armstrong flap. I mean they have trained, lived and raced with Armstrong so surely they would know more than anyone how to win a tour,maybe even topple Armstrong because the know his game. They must be good enought because i once read that Armstrong was in the habit of hiring guys for his team that were essentualy an overall threat to him! So by hiring them they work for him and no longer pose a threat. I believe he even tried this with Basso before he went to CSC because he saw the potential rivalry. And looking at CSC now it is very similar in the way it is formed to the old disco, they seem to have a right balance that is not present in many other teams apart from maybe T-mobile. I was watching some American racing the other bay on sky tv, and i was really impressed at the strenght in depth of some of the teams. Its a shame that some of these could not be given wild card entrys to the TDF as im sure they could cause a few upsets. It would at least be intresting! cheers