Basso Vs. Ullrich: 2 Paths To Paris

Discussion in 'Professional Cycling' started by sploush, Apr 25, 2006.

  1. sploush

    sploush New Member

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    check out this comparison of both their chances on
    http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=3960
    I like this guy's view on it
     
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  2. jhuskey

    jhuskey Moderator

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    Very good analysis of competing factors.
     
  3. thebluetrain

    thebluetrain New Member

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    agreed.
     
  4. lwedge

    lwedge New Member

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    Butler sums it up very well in the last two paragraphs.

    "While Ullrich may have time to recuperate from whatever knee problems he is experiencing, it might be too late to build the mental toughness he will need to draw on in July.

    While Jan’s camp must live with years of defeat, the CSC crew is enjoying the full power of momentum… and even though Jan will be the only rider in this year’s Tour who knows what it takes to win the race, his past achievements may not be enough to overcome the promise of Basso’s future."

    If Jan stays on the bike and TT's like he is capable of doing then I think Jan wins the TDF. But like Jack Nicholas once said of his rival Arnold Palmer. "We spend so much time trying to beat each other that we both end up losing track and lose the tournament miserably."
    lw
     
  5. rejobako

    rejobako New Member

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    No offense to the great Nicklaus but I'm not sure his statement had much merit. Nicklaus won more majors than anyone, and Palmer is tied for 7th on that list. Nicklaus ranks 2nd all-time in PGA wins, while Palmer is 4th. Point being, I think their close attention to their rivalry inspired them more than it distracted them. Armstrong always used Jan as a point of reference and motivating factor during his title-run -- if he knew where Jan was, he knew what he had to do to stay in good shape for the GC. And as we all know, he was usually right. Jan was on the podium next to him most years. Presuming both are on form as the TdF begins, I think Jan and Basso could do worse than to mark each other's positions as a measuring stick for their own success.
     
  6. lwedge

    lwedge New Member

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    I spoke to Jack, he said no offense taken.

    The point I was trying to get across was, if you spend too much time thinking or dwelling on your rival you lose track of the big picture.

    Landis has been banging the war drum quite loudly this year.
     
  7. rejobako

    rejobako New Member

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    Your point is well-taken in general, but I still believe there are situations where an analysis of the "big picture" requires looking only at the focal point of the canvas. Jack and Arnie targeted each other and together won 25 major titles. Armstrong targeted Ullrich and won the TdF more often than anyone. This year's TdF may not shape up in quite the same way, because I don't know that Ullrich and Basso deserve to be labeled the two clear favorites. But if it shapes up that way, I still believe that those two could do worse than to use each other as bookmarks.
     
  8. lwedge

    lwedge New Member

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    Two thumbs up.;)
     
  9. barnstorm

    barnstorm New Member

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    Indeed. If we look at results and form, we might be better off looking at Landis and Valverde as the frontrunners.
     
  10. lwedge

    lwedge New Member

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    I would love to see a 4-way... In my opinion, Valverde has the talent but will have to rely on a little help from the wheels of other teams to attack the hills. I think he knows that and will use his noggin when needed.
    Let's hope everyone stays healthy.

    lw
     
  11. tinks

    tinks New Member

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    Fair assessment, how badly does Jan want to win?

    For me, the Giro will say a lot. Two thoughts:

    If Basso doesn't win the Giro, he won't win the Tour: If he can't win on home soil and on a course that suits him, he won't be able to pull it out in July.

    If Jan doesn't ride the Giro, he can't win the Tour: This years course is absolutely brutal, completing it will do wonders for his form. If he doesn't do it, his chances of winning drop exponentially. Hanging out in Switzerland hasn't worked for him in the past and it won't work for him now - especially this year where he's started late and desperately needs some races under his belt.
     
  12. patch70

    patch70 New Member

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    Completely agree with the 2nd point about Jan needing to ride the Giro to have ANY chance in the tour.

    However - I think Basso can win the tour either way. He & his team have sufficient hunger that a non-win of the Giro will make them want the Tour even more IMO.

    Hey, why stop at 4? Throw in Vino, Leipheimer, Mancebo, Evans.
    If DSC are not "controlling" the peloton, some decisive breaks may occur and some unexpected people could end up with useful time gains. Here is hoping at least...
     
  13. Randomus

    Randomus New Member

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    Although I want to see big Jan win in July, time will tell what sort of shape he is.

    That is exactly what I was thinking. I think the mountain stages will once again be interesting to watch, even without Lance.
     
  14. Eilert Pilarm

    Eilert Pilarm New Member

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    yes we all have our fantasies and i'd love to just be in a 3-way before getting the 4-way :rolleyes:

    ok all kidding aside


    i still go with Basso
     
  15. lwedge

    lwedge New Member

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    Your guys are getting kinking. :D :D

    I think the 2006 LeTour poster sums it up pretty well.
     
  16. tinks

    tinks New Member

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    The way I see it, Basso will have the comparative advantage in the Giro. A team time trial and mountains aplenty give him every opportunity to win. That TTT already gives him a heads up on Simoni, Cunego and co.

    No one is going to win the Giro this year without going through some serious pain. If Basso expends that much effort, and loses, his chances at the Tour are diminished.

    1. Everything hurts more when you lose, I query how losing the Giro would affect morale and how much the Giro will take out of him. Basso seems a steady character but we've seen Ullrich suffer from the pressure of favouritism, how will it affect Basso?

    If he wins though, it's game on for the double.

    2. No TTT, only 3 mountain top finishes and two long ITTs - the course just doesn't suit him as much as it does Ullrich. CSC are an exceptionally strong outfit but how much will Basso's team be able to help him when it really counts?

    3. He hasn't got the Giro by July, he'll still be trying for that first GT. The top step will remain the great unknown.

    Anyway, that's my thinking and my feeling is that Basso will either perform spectacularly or have a mediocre 2006.


    As for the other contenders, I'll be watching Vino. Liberty have a bunch of fantastic climbers, who knows what surprises Vino will spring now that he's got carte blanche?

    I'm not hearing Menchov mentioned a lot, if he's riding, he'll be worth keeping an eye on. So will Salvodelli. I know his goal is the Giro but if Disco showed him some RESPECT, he might be joining Basso as the other rider who can pull off the double ;)
     
  17. patch70

    patch70 New Member

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    Good points. I must say that Menchov had slipped my mind and he's a good one to add to the list.

    I'd like to see Vino do well - I am all for any rider that is willing to attack and I believe the recent Tours have been more interesting when he is there than when he is not.

    Savoldelli is an interesting one. If he does badly in the Giro (ie not win), which he may blame on lack of team support if it is anything like 2005, then he may not have much motivation to do well for DSC in the Tour.
     
  18. tinks

    tinks New Member

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    Vino isn't as naturally gifted as Basso or Ullrich but he's got a fantastic mind for strategy and an excellent ability to improvise. The big thing holding him back in the GTs is his tendency to blow up at least once over the three weeks. If Liberty can give him a team that can nurse him through that, I say he has every chance of winning.
     
  19. barnstorm

    barnstorm New Member

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    DC's Giro team looks to be exceptionally strong both in climbing and TTs. They will take a reasonably close second to CSC in TTT and have the climbers to be there with Paulo on the climbs.
     
  20. barnstorm

    barnstorm New Member

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    Vino's LS team looks to be amazing for him in the tour. Contador just crushed the field in Romandie today, Beloki has been within two minutes on the past two stages and had a great Vuelta as a domestique for He(po)ras last year. He is not a contender anymore but is turning out to be a great domestique. I can't recall all the names right now but they seem to be the repository for young spanish climbing talent these days. The team will be there and will be able to support him if Saiz can keep his head on straight when ordering them all around.
     
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