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BBC Article: Bike Now to Avoid Senility

Started by Elisa Francesca Roselli · · Last activity · 49 posts · 1,499 views

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UK and Europe
Published
4 October 2005
Last activity
13 October 2005
Original author
Elisa Francesca Roselli
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  1. Buck said:
    Elisa Francesca Roselli said:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4304822.stm

    Yet another article filled with bad science. I don't doubt there is a
    correllation between exercise and lowered risk of dementia. But they
    failed to establish a true cause and effect relationship. This is a
    typical ecological fallacy.

    The true cause of the lowered risk may be eating habits. Perhaps it is
    more frequent washing (exercisers get stinky and probably wash more
    often). Maybe it is that exercisers have a lower exposure to chemical
    propellants because they are less concerned with their state of their
    hair - it's going to get messed up anyway, right? The point is that
    there are a lot of differences between exercisers and non-exercisers
    that are not accounted for in the article. If the researchers did
    attempt to control for this, it certainly isn't presented in the bbc
    article. If so, then this is just another case of the public press
    butchering good science because they don't know how to report it
    properly.

    Here's a good article on ecological fallacy:
    http://www.stanford.edu/class/ed260/freedman549.pdf

    -Buck


    Some of the above, plus never drinking or smoking. My grandmother never
    rode a bike that I knew of, and never went out to eat 'God knows what is
    in the food?' restaurants, was always active, and lived to 100. She had
    a television but never turned it on that I know of. She also had one
    glass of red wine at bedtime to fall asleep on, but that was it. Her
    downfall, literally, was a broken hip while carrying some stuff down the
    outside stairs that had no railing. She was also still totally alert and
    admitted to being pleasantly surprised every morning she woke up.
    Attitude helps, too.
    Bill Baka

  2. Quoted message said:

    Didn't look like bad science to me - anyway the science is in the
    research paper whereas this is just a journalistic report. It would
    seem that the conclusions are hedged with 'mays' and 'mights' and the
    conclusion is that 'more research is needed'. You don't need to prove a
    cause and effect to establish that something may be hazardous or
    beneficial.
    Anyway I'm going to keep on pedalling even if it is too late in my
    case.

    cheers

    Jacob


    I don't want to overpost here, but I seem to be at my most alert when
    riding either slow or fast. Maybe the extra blood flow while pumping
    blood to the legs juices up the brain too?
    Bill Baka

  3. Bill said:
    Buck said:

    The true cause of the lowered risk may be eating habits. Perhaps it is
    more frequent washing (exercisers get stinky and probably wash more
    often). Maybe it is that exercisers have a lower exposure to chemical
    propellants ...
    -Buck


    Some of the above, plus never drinking or smoking.
    Bill Baka

    Studies have shown that moderate drinking is actually better for you
    then not drinking.

    Rich

  4. Rich said:

    Studies have shown that moderate drinking is actually better for you
    then not drinking.

    Rich

    Right! I'll drink to that :-)

  5. gds said:
    Rich said:


    Studies have shown that moderate drinking is actually better for you
    then not drinking.

    Rich

    Right! I'll drink to that :-)


    The one glass of red wine at bedtime may explain, partly, why my
    grandmother made it to 100. She could still be going at 120 if not for
    that fall. I heard once that a broken hip or leg is likely to kill an
    older person just because of the change in activity level, and my
    grandmother seems to be proof of that. I also doubt that she got the
    best of medical care since she was 100 already and they probably figured
    that even if they got her back on her feet she would not make 101 anyway.
    Selective medical care?
    Bill

  6. Bill said:


    I also doubt that she got the
    best of medical care since she was 100 already and they probably figured
    that even if they got her back on her feet she would not make 101 anyway.

    That's the trouble with medics, they don't understand whole population
    statistics. Its not until you reach 103 years old that the probability
    of living until your next birthday drops to 50:50.

    --
    Tony

    "I did make a mistake once - I thought I'd made a mistake but I hadn't"
    Anon

  7. Tony Raven said:
    Quoted message said:


    That's the trouble with medics, they don't understand whole population
    statistics. Its not until you reach 103 years old that the probability
    of living until your next birthday drops to 50:50.

    But it is also the case that soemthing like 60% of your lifetime
    medical costs will be incurred in the last few weeks of your life. From
    an economic point of view a poor investment, as clearly the incurred
    costs didn't do much for extending life.
    So it is not irrational (economically) to think hard about expensive
    medical care to the elderly.
    Seems like it would be a much better investment to provide better
    health care to children and workers as society will get a much better
    return on the investment. We have medicare becasue old folks vote in
    higher percentages than any other group and thus have political clout
    out of proportion to their numbers.
    I can say this because I'm 60+ and getting ready to get mine 🙂

  8. gds said:
    Tony Raven said:

    That's the trouble with medics, they don't understand whole population
    statistics. Its not until you reach 103 years old that the probability
    of living until your next birthday drops to 50:50.

    But it is also the case that soemthing like 60% of your lifetime
    medical costs will be incurred in the last few weeks of your life. From
    an economic point of view a poor investment, as clearly the incurred
    costs didn't do much for extending life.
    So it is not irrational (economically) to think hard about expensive
    medical care to the elderly.
    Seems like it would be a much better investment to provide better
    health care to children and workers as society will get a much better
    return on the investment. We have medicare becasue old folks vote in
    higher percentages than any other group and thus have political clout
    out of proportion to their numbers.
    I can say this because I'm 60+ and getting ready to get mine 🙂


    So if you get hurt do you want to get repaired or call Dr. Kervorkian?
    People who spend 20 years in rest homes gripe me, but many of them are
    there because their 'loving' children wanted to get their hands on the
    estate. I am a relative 'junior' at 57 but I do know that I would go
    nuts sitting around with old people staring out the window at nothing,
    or wheel chairing it, or hobbling around with walkers. If I ever get
    that way I want out, not looking forward to living decay. I have
    encountered some men older than myself (70's and one 80's) bicycling and
    chatted ending the conversation with an encouraging word to keep on riding.
    Age is an attitude I am at odds with.
    Bill Baka

  9. Bill said:

    I am a relative 'junior' at 57 but I do know that I would go
    nuts sitting around with old people staring out the window at nothing,
    or wheel chairing it, or hobbling around with walkers. If I ever get
    that way I want out, not looking forward to living decay. I have
    encountered some men older than myself (70's and one 80's) bicycling and
    chatted ending the conversation with an encouraging word to keep on riding.
    Age is an attitude I am at odds with.

    I find the Obituaries column in the CTC mag somewhat uplifting. All
    these regular cyclists still going into their 80s and beyond..

    ...d

  10. Bill said:
    Quoted message said:


    So if you get hurt do you want to get repaired or call Dr. Kervorkian?

    That is an argumentum ad absurdum.

    The correct answer is "it depends." It depends on what is wrong and
    what the costs to repair that and what the probabilty of a positive
    outcome might be.

    So, in the case of someone 93 years old with massive metastasized
    tumors affecting numeerous organ systems I would question the
    adminstration of heroic, expensive care. Palliative care such as a
    hospice might make more sense. (Kevorkian?)
    On the other hand the same 93 year old with a dermatologic condition
    rather than tumors should certainly have the best care available.

    Unless folks understand that there is a limit on resources (only
    economists seem to think this way) there will always be poor alocation
    of those resources.

  11. gds said:

    Unless folks understand that there is a limit on resources (only
    economists seem to think this way) there will always be poor alocation
    of those resources.

    It's the same people who complain about centralised control, and then
    complain about a 'postcode lottery'.

    ...d

  12. gds said:


    So, in the case of someone 93 years old with massive metastasized
    tumors affecting numeerous organ systems I would question the
    adminstration of heroic, expensive care. Palliative care such as a
    hospice might make more sense. (Kevorkian?)

    Why should it be any different at age 60 or 40? Complete remission in
    such cases is rare, Lance apart.

    Quoted message said:

    On the other hand the same 93 year old with a dermatologic condition
    rather than tumors should certainly have the best care available.

    And why shouldn't that happen for a 101 year old?

    --
    Tony

    "I did make a mistake once - I thought I'd made a mistake but I hadn't"
    Anon

  13. gds said:


    But it is also the case that soemthing like 60% of your lifetime
    medical costs will be incurred in the last few weeks of your life. From
    an economic point of view a poor investment, as clearly the incurred
    costs didn't do much for extending life.
    So it is not irrational (economically) to think hard about expensive
    medical care to the elderly.
    Seems like it would be a much better investment to provide better
    health care to children and workers as society will get a much better
    return on the investment. We have medicare becasue old folks vote in
    higher percentages than any other group and thus have political clout
    out of proportion to their numbers.
    I can say this because I'm 60+ and getting ready to get mine 🙂

    That statistic is probably true for most ages. If you want to drive the
    decision by the economics, economically we would be far better off
    terminating people when their useful working life has ended as we do
    with agricultural animals. The cost of pensions, social services,
    healthcare etc care in many senses hitting the workers. It would be a
    far greater economic impact than just saving on healthcare. So why are
    you not suggesting termination on retirement?

    --
    Tony

    "I did make a mistake once - I thought I'd made a mistake but I hadn't"
    Anon

  14. David Martin said:


    And that is ignoring any ethical issues.

    You threw those out the window when you suggested letting the elderly
    die on economic grounds.

    --
    Tony

    "I did make a mistake once - I thought I'd made a mistake but I hadn't"
    Anon

  15. "David Martin" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    Bill said:

    I am a relative 'junior' at 57 but I do know that I would go
    nuts sitting around with old people staring out the window at nothing,
    or wheel chairing it, or hobbling around with walkers. If I ever get
    that way I want out, not looking forward to living decay. I have
    encountered some men older than myself (70's and one 80's) bicycling and
    chatted ending the conversation with an encouraging word to keep on
    riding.
    Age is an attitude I am at odds with.

    I find the Obituaries column in the CTC mag somewhat uplifting. All
    these regular cyclists still going into their 80s and beyond..

    Except for the disproportionate number who are hit by a truck when in their
    80s. You wonder if there's a truck repellent muscle that wears out by the
    time you get past your three score years and ten.

    A

  16. "David Martin" <[email hidden]> wrote in message
    news:[email hidden]...

    Quoted message said:


    gds said:

    Unless folks understand that there is a limit on resources (only
    economists seem to think this way) there will always be poor alocation
    of those resources.

    It's the same people who complain about centralised control, and then
    complain about a 'postcode lottery'.

    I was watching the lottery draw the other day, and there's no chance my
    number will come up: there were no balls with Ws, Ss, Bs or Ds on them.

    Looks as if no one wins the postcode lottery to me.

    Ambrose

  17. Tony Raven said:
    David Martin said:


    And that is ignoring any ethical issues.

    You threw those out the window when you suggested letting the elderly
    die on economic grounds.

    I didn't suggest that, I was merely pointing out the oversimplification
    of the economic arguement.

    ...d

  18. David Martin said:
    Tony Raven said:
    David Martin said:

    And that is ignoring any ethical issues.


    You threw those out the window when you suggested letting the elderly
    die on economic grounds.

    I didn't suggest that, I was merely pointing out the oversimplification
    of the economic arguement.

    You are correct, gds suggested it.

    --
    Tony

    "I did make a mistake once - I thought I'd made a mistake but I hadn't"
    Anon

  19. Tony Raven said:
    David Martin said:

    And that is ignoring any ethical issues.

    You threw those out the window when you suggested letting the elderly
    die on economic grounds.

    The worlds unequal distribution of wealth causes thousands die every
    year on economic grounds.

    Isn't it unethical is spending 50K or whatever amount to add 10 years to
    someones life instead of spending the 50K to buy food for starving
    children in 3rd world countries?

    Rich

  20. Tony Raven said:


    Quoted message said:

    You threw those out the window when you suggested letting the elderly
    die on economic grounds.

    Interesting point. I think my point addresses the ethical side quite
    well. Yes I would argue that spending $X on prolonging one elderly
    person's life for a few years is less ethical than spending the same $X
    on an early childhood intervention that will increase the length and
    quality of life of 100 children.
    Clearly these are hypotheitcal numbers but if you compare the costs of
    say heroice intervention for a heart attack I think you find that those
    same dollars will buy over a 1000 doses of vaccine against childhood
    deseases. And since there are millions of children currently not
    getting those doses due to insufficeint $$ then I think the ethical is
    is right at the center of the oversimplified economic argument.

    I'm not against eldrly getting health care- heck I'm elderly. My point
    is that there are tradeoffs and that in a world of limited resources
    (the real world) that means that if resources are spent in an
    econoically ineffient way than overall the benefit to all of society is
    less than it could be.

    Sure there are economic disparities all over the place. Rich/poor. 1st
    world/3rd world. White/black. I understand these issues. I am simply
    suggesting you add. Old/Young.

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