Bet Discovery/US Postal repeats....

[cmonie]

If Discovery places an above average rider in Lance's position and they win, it will only confirm everything that is wrong with the TDF.

But suppose they don't win and Ulrich wins. I guarantee that he will win the same way, content to ride in the peleton, with only a few mountain challenges, and TT and TTT wins. It will confirm as well that the TDF is dead. Armstrong is the only rider that has beaten Ulrich consistently in TT and that is because Ulrich refuses to get his big **** out of the saddle when he needs to and two, because Armstrong has always had the benefit of knowing (radio) what time he had to beat to keep pace or surpass Ulrich since he always starts behind Ulrich. Who is going to beat Ulrich now?

My bet though Discovery will make it eight in a row, as Ulrich loses his motivation to return!!!

Peace

Cmonie

 

[musette]

JU can't really use the same strategy as LA did. Here are some reasons:

(1) Esp with Vino is gone, JU is not assured a TTT win relative to CSC (one of the teams that will include JU's strongest competitors, Basso). CSC has been spending on some strong ITTists, including Cancellera, and had already a good TTT team this year.

(2) Even though JU will be among the strongest in the mountains, his climbing style is not the more fast-acceleration type a la Basso/Valverde. The more explosive climbers know JU's strength relative to them in the ITT and will therefore try to get time on JU in the mountains, attacking him more. JU will not be able to accelerate the way that Basso could to immediately counter an attack, but will rely on a steadier pace advance consistent with his own climbing style. This makes JU more vulnerable in the mountains than LA is perceived to have been.

(3) At least perception-wise, JU is seen as being less consistent than LA, with some bad days over the course of the Tour (esp in the earlier mountain stages). This will give his competitors more incentive to test him on any given day where JU could lose time, including in the mountains.

(4) ITTs -- JU will prob win these (except for the Prologue), or do very well relative to the "real" GC contenders. He has as high a likelihood of winning the long ITTs as LA did.

(5) DC Domestiques -- The DC domestiques are stronger as a group, as climbers, than JU's domestiques (Kloden, Guerini and Sevilla notwithstanding). Therefore, without some significant recruiting of climbers who can also TTT, JU doesn't have the consistent climbing strength that most of the DC domestiques have.