Carl,
You also need to consider that not all road surfaces are created equal. The grit size may vary, the grit/bitumen ratio may vary, and the characteristics of the bitumen itself may vary. Small particles and/or a low grit/bitumen ratio can give a far smoother surface than one might expect.
Different types of rock will also wear differently, thus influencing how the road surface changes over time.
Bitumen can also not only be of different hardness at the same temperature, but different compositions can also have different temperature responses, with some mixes reacting quickly and others being more uniform across the temperature range.
So, what I'm getting at, in a rather long-winded way, is that we don't really know the surface conditions these guys begin with, let alone how that surface will interact with whatever stuff that's on top of it.
Cheers,
dabac