dhk2 said:Just discussing fine points here: Peter summed up the OPs problem well.
While we are on the subject of finer points, we may as well do it properly.
dhk2 said:appreciate that you included some figures on load and yield strength of a spoke in your discussion. But to consider only static loads doesn't seem sufficient, since real-world bumps can put several g's of load into the wheels. Thus the wheel in your example that's so slack as to put all the load on one spoke, would likely have a spoke failure in very short order after just a few bumps or minor potholes in the road.
Agree that the issue isn't straight-gauge vs DB spokes causing the weak wheel. But question your conclusion that all spokes are the same in load-carrying and thus wouldn't affect the durability of a well-built wheel. Seems to me that a 14 ga spoke (or 14/15/14 DB) will be stronger than a 15/16/15 in terms of ultimate yield strength, and thus have a longer fatigue life, assuming the quality of the spoke materials and processing equal.
Anyone who has read any literature on bicycle wheels as pre-stressed structures is aware of the fact that bike wheels accept loads (static or dynamic) by decreasing the tension of the lower spokes and not by increasing the tension in the higher spokes. Several engineering studies (using actual wheels and also computerised finite element modelling) have been conducted on this and all have shown that the spokes at the top of the wheel do not change in tension when the wheel is loaded. The spokes at the bottom UNLOAD. To say that load results in increases in tension is incorrect.
A useful reference for this is Burgoyne and Dilmaghanian, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, Vol 119, No 3. 1993 and Jobst Brandt’s The Bicycle Wheel also gives a good description based on sound Engineering principles of structures.
Given that spokes will never increase in tension beyond the pretension applied when building, it is entirely accurate to say that a spoke is strong enough if it can support the rider’s weight on its own. If a bump were to increase the tension to the point of failure, it would occur at the first such bump and not 10 months down the track.
The main cause of spoke failure, as I said above, is invariably fatigue. This is due to the persistent cyclic unloading and reloading of spokes under the rider’s weight whilst riding. It is not due to occasional loads from bumps. Spoke failure after 10 months of use is a classic indication of a premature fatigue failure. Premature fatigue failure is usually due to insufficient tension in building and/or stress raising features on the spokes. The double butted spoke actually performs better in fatigue than plain gauge as the narrowed shaft helps concentrate stresses there, and away from the stress raising features of the thread and elbow, where fatigue failures are common. At any rate I was never arguing for or against a particular spoke. Built properly any type of spoke would be better than the OP's current situation.
If you want to know more about fatigue, I would recommend reading a book on engineering materials or solid mechanics.
I raised the issue of insufficient tension because it is a persistent problem with prebuilt (machine made) wheels of the type which is at issue here (who manufactured them doesn’t tend to matter), and time isn’t always available at dealer shops to tension the wheels properly as they come out of the box. Human wheel-builders all know, or are taught, that sufficient tension is a good thing.