Can Hincapie win?

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news[email protected]...
>
> >
> > You should know better than to use one or two results to "prove" who is better, especially in
> > sprinting.
>
> I don't have time to conduct comprehensive surveys. How about stage 2? :

<snip>

Dumbass -

he's right.

You could 'prove' that any pro is better than any other pro with selective race results and "X beat
Y, and Y beat Z, therefore X is better than Z" logic.

BTW, I agree - Bettini is a much better sprinter than Hincapie, but not because of the selective
results you posted.

 

[Nick Burns]

"Ronaldo Jeremiah" <[email protected]> wrote in message

> DEAD wrong.
>
> I challenge you to find *one* result where they contested the same sprint and George came in ahead
> of Bettini. You won't be able to. Bettini has even beaten Cipollini in bunch sprints. GH has never
> come close to that. Bettini is a great sprinter, while GH isn't *even* a sprinter.

I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...I am guessing based on old info. On
the sprints I have seen, I am guessing the George has a better top speed sprint. Bettini is great
from small groups on courses that typically do not have leadouts and long run-ins. It is really not
worth fighting over (to me) but I suspect I am correct. Still, because of the numerous other
factors, Bettini knows how to win and often by sprinting from small groups.

>
> but Bettini has great results because he knows
> > how to drive a break and he is a great sprinter from those small groups
that
> > tend to make the final break. Only if the course is not too selective
would
> > George have a chance of Bettini.
>
> Bettini is a breakaway master in addition to being an excellent sprinter. You are right
> about that.
>
> Here is how it will go down: Whatever break GH is in will be the one that gets caught just before
> Bettini launches the winning breakaway.
>
> -RJ

LOL, that could be. I have not even looked at the course. If it is too short or has any grade at
all, then Geo should have stayed in Spain for the Vuelta finish and celebration. He only has a
chance in a long straight with a small group that drops Zabel and that class of rider. Good luck
George. I was pretty ****** when he left RobSpain early. I like Bettini in this just because it
suits him to the ground, but this has been a long season for him and EVERYONE will be marking him.

 

[Jonathan V.D. S]

Ronaldo Jeremiah <[email protected]> schreef in berichtnieuws
[email protected]... ...
> > Hincapie has a better sprint,
>
> DEAD wrong.

I think the misconception comes from the fact that Bettini has won LBL twice. People think that such
a rider couldn't possibly be a good sprinter, but there's really no logic to that argument.

It's another matter if George Hincapie can win. I think he *can*, but he won't do it. If he wants to
win, he should do exactly the opposite from what was suggested in the first post of this thread. He
should ride with confidence and agression in the finale, not stay in some other rider's wheel.

Jonathan.

 

[Steve McGinty]

On 07 Oct 2003 02:04:35 GMT, Richard Adams <[email protected]> wrote:

>>>Sure seem willing to write off some of the local US talent. After Horner's great race in San
>>>Fran, he might surprise.
>>>
>> How is Chris' sprint? If he was with Bettini is a small break, would Horner have a chance? I kind
>> of doubt it but I have not followed him very closely. On the other hand, he does seem to excel in
>> circuit races and that is what the World's RR is, the most important annual circuit race.
>>
> Pretty strong finisher and definitely in great form during that race. If he's still got it he
> could be a tough customer.

You can't compare the SF race with the World RR Champ. The US based riders wil be back in the pits
when the real action kicks off in the last couple of laps.

Regards! Stephen

 

[Dan Connelly]

> I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...

His last group sprint win:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html

Dan

 

[Dan Connelly]

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
> "Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news[email protected]...
>
>>>You should know better than to use one or two results to "prove" who is better, especially in
>>>sprinting.
>>
>>I don't have time to conduct comprehensive surveys. How about stage 2? :
>
>
>
> <snip>
>
>
>
> Dumbass -
>
> he's right.
>
> You could 'prove' that any pro is better than any other pro with selective race results and "X
> beat Y, and Y beat Z, therefore X is better than Z" logic.

Okay. So "prove" Hincapie's better than Bettini.

>
> BTW, I agree - Bettini is a much better sprinter than Hincapie, but not because of the selective
> results you posted.
>

So somebody provide counter-examples.

Sure, my results prove nothing. You can't prove I can't out-sprint Petacchi, either. Proving is
tough. But folks here, with few exceptions, are too lazy to provide any data to back up their
assertions.

Show me Hincapie mixing it up in a group sprint -- say, a top 3 in a top race during the past year,
and I'll concede he may be better than Bettini. Bettini showed himself to be just off this level
with his Tour results.

Dan

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>
> > I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...
>
> His last group sprint win:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html

Dumbass -

http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/2001/apr01/genwevelgem01.shtml

 

[Kyle Legate]

Dan Connelly wrote:
>> I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...
>
> His last group sprint win:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html
>
Did you read the report? All the sprinters were dropped on a previous
climb. This isn't a good example of a final sprint which therefore proves that Bettini is a
better sprinter.

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>

> >
> > You could 'prove' that any pro is better than any other pro with
selective
> > race results and "X beat Y, and Y beat Z, therefore X is better than Z" logic.
>
> Okay. So "prove" Hincapie's better than Bettini.

Dumbass -

2002 Tour of Flanders. George got 4th. Don't know where Bettini finished, but he was on the start
list. Cyclingnews' link to the full results isn't working (sends to the preview).

> So somebody provide counter-examples.
>
> Sure, my results prove nothing. You can't prove I can't out-sprint
Petacchi,
> either. Proving is tough. But folks here, with few exceptions, are too lazy to provide any data to
> back up their assertions.
>
> Show me Hincapie mixing it up in a group sprint -- say, a top 3 in a top
race
> during the past year, and I'll concede he may be better than Bettini.
Bettini
> showed himself to be just off this level with his Tour results.

Dumbass -

I said the Bettini is better, but not because of the selective results you posted.

 

[Dan Connelly]

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
> "Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
>>
>>>I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...
>>
>>His last group sprint win:
>>
>>http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html
>
>
>
>
> Dumbass -
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/2001/apr01/genwevelgem01.shtml
>
>

4 men isn't the sort of "group sprint" we're discussing. I'm talking a group of like 25+ riders
against real sprinters.

Even my example was marginal.

Dan

 

[Dan Connelly]

Kyle Legate wrote:
> Dan Connelly wrote:
>
>>>I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...
>>
>>His last group sprint win:
>>
>>http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html
>>
>
> Did you read the report? All the sprinters were dropped on a previous
> climb. This isn't a good example of a final sprint which therefore proves that Bettini is a better
> sprinter.
>
>

I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Bontempi, O'Grady, and Ullrich are all decent
sprinters, and he managed to beat them that day. The rest of the Tour, he didn't come close to
another win, however.

Dan

 

[Dan Connelly]

Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
> "Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>
>>
>
>>>You could 'prove' that any pro is better than any other pro with
>
> selective
>
>>>race results and "X beat Y, and Y beat Z, therefore X is better than Z" logic.
>>
>>Okay. So "prove" Hincapie's better than Bettini.
>
>
>
> Dumbass -
>
> 2002 Tour of Flanders. George got 4th. Don't know where Bettini finished, but he was on the start
> list. Cyclingnews' link to the full results isn't working (sends to the preview).

I had no trouble finding it:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2002/worldcup02/rondevlaanderen02/?id=results

Hincapie was 3rd in a group of 4. Now that's sprinting!

Bettini didn't finish.

Dan

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>
> Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
> > "Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> > news:[email protected]...
> >
> >>
> >>>I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...
> >>
> >>His last group sprint win:
> >>
> >>http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Dumbass -
> >
> > http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/2001/apr01/genwevelgem01.shtml
> >
> >
>
> 4 men isn't the sort of "group sprint" we're discussing. I'm talking a
group of like 25+ riders
> against real sprinters.
>
> Even my example was marginal.

Dumbass -

There's more likely to be a small group with the sprinters long off the back. That's why Bettini is
the favorite.

 

[Kenny]

> Sure seem willing to write off some of the local US talent. After Horner's great race in San Fran,
> he might surprise.

Dude we're talking about a 260km race. The guy probably didn't even ride this distance in a race or
training this season. Comparing an American Crit to the elite WC is not a smart thing to do.

 

[Jonathan V.D. S]

Dan Connelly <[email protected]> schreef in berichtnieuws
[email protected]...
>
>
> Kurgan Gringioni wrote:
> > "Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> > news:[email protected]...
> >
> >>
> >>>I have not seen George in a final sprint for several year, so...
> >>
> >>His last group sprint win:
> >>
> >>http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/archives/mar97/setm97.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Dumbass -
> >
> > http://www.cyclingnews.com/results/2001/apr01/genwevelgem01.shtml
> >
> >
>
> 4 men isn't the sort of "group sprint" we're discussing. I'm talking a
group of like 25+ riders
> against real sprinters.
>
> Even my example was marginal.

Still it's a sign that if Hincapie is in a lead group, the others often seem to be afraid of his
sprint. At least that's how it appears to me when I see him race in Flanders. I think he's
reasonably fast (as is Van Bon). Given the fact that he has shown himself this season to survive
tough courses well, it's not illogical to predict a high spot for him. Something like 5th place, or
thereabout.

Jonathan.

 

[Dan Connelly]

Jonathan v.d. Sluis wrote:
> Still it's a sign that if Hincapie is in a lead group, the others often seem to be afraid of his
> sprint. At least that's how it appears to me when I see him race in Flanders. I think he's
> reasonably fast (as is Van Bon). Given the fact that he has shown himself this season to survive
> tough courses well, it's not illogical to predict a high spot for him. Something like 5th place,
> or thereabout.
>
> Jonathan.
>
>

Agreed. 5th is quite reasonable for him. Not the subject of this thread, though.

All I was discussing, though, was whether he's a better sprinter than Bettini, an assertion I claim
is completely without justification in the race record.

Dan

 

[Stewart Fleming]

Kenny wrote:
>>Sure seem willing to write off some of the local US talent. After Horner's great race in San Fran,
>>he might surprise.
>
>
> Dude we're talking about a 260km race. The guy probably didn't even ride this distance in a race
> or training this season. Comparing an American Crit to the elite WC is not a smart thing to do.

Oslo, 1993.

 

[Nick Burns]

"Dan Connelly" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
>
> Jonathan v.d. Sluis wrote:
> > Still it's a sign that if Hincapie is in a lead group, the others often
seem
> > to be afraid of his sprint. At least that's how it appears to me when I
see
> > him race in Flanders. I think he's reasonably fast (as is Van Bon).
Given
> > the fact that he has shown himself this season to survive tough courses well, it's not illogical
> > to predict a high spot for him. Something like
5th
> > place, or thereabout.
> >
> > Jonathan.

Yep. I would say Van Bon is about right too. I am not picking Hincapie for the win, just making the
point that it is not his lack of a fast sprint that causes his problems.Actually, (this is really
going out on a limb) there may have been a few times where he should have attacked but he was too
confident in his sprint.

> >
> >
>
>
> Agreed. 5th is quite reasonable for him. Not the subject of this thread,
though.
>
> All I was discussing, though, was whether he's a better sprinter than
Bettini,
> an assertion I claim is completely without justification in the race
record.
>
> Dan

Bettini is a much better racer. Hincapie is a slightly better sprinter in long fast sprints, but
Bettini is close. Bettini is the hands down favorite (for the World's RR) whose only weakness is all
of the attention on him as the favorite.

I don't want to go round and round on this (it is not like we are trying to figure out how a Cat 3
would do in The Longest Hour), I registered my subjective view and I admit there is very little hard
data for evidence. George has had a lot of issues the last for years and I don't want to sit here
and rag on him since he has taken a lot of heat already. The guy keeps getting stronger and his
sprint is still very fast, so his results should be getting better rather than worse. His results
are disappointing.

 

[Nick Burns]

"Stewart Fleming" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:1065565239.162120@ns...
>
>
> Kenny wrote:
> >>Sure seem willing to write off some of the local US talent. After Horner's great race in San
> >>Fran, he might surprise.
> >
> >
> > Dude we're talking about a 260km race. The guy probably didn't even ride this distance in a race
> > or training this season. Comparing an American Crit to the elite WC is not a smart thing to do.
>
> Oslo, 1993.

Lance had been in Europe for about a year at that point. His first pro race was the Clasica San
Sebastian in August 1992.

 

[Richard Adams]

Kenny wrote:

>>Sure seem willing to write off some of the local US talent. After Horner's great race in San Fran,
>>he might surprise.
>
>
> Dude we're talking about a 260km race. The guy probably didn't even ride this distance in a race
> or training this season. Comparing an American Crit to the elite WC is not a smart thing to do.

He cranked up Fillmore street 8 times and Taylor, what 13 times, then kept going past the finish
line ready for another lap. Tough guy.