Can Ullrich still win?

[Snjr]

Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
their tactics on stage
16.

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"snjr" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in
the
> final ITT? I think he may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in
> Lance's TT ability by their tactics on stage
> 16.

The stage 16 profile does not lend itself to any changes at the top of the GC.

 

[Raptor]

snjr wrote:
> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
> may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
> their tactics on stage
> 16.

LANCE will win the final ITT.

--
--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall "I'm not proud. We really haven't done everything we
could to protect our customers. Our products just aren't engineered for security." --Microsoft VP in
charge of Windows OS Development, Brian Valentine.

 

[Keith]

On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 19:39:49 -0700, "snjr" <[email protected]> wrote:

>Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
>may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
>their tactics on stage
>16.

Yes he can pull it off. I'd say he can beat him by 2mn in the ITT. Not sure any conclusion will be
drawn from Stage 16.

 

[Brian P]

Your stoned. No way he takes 2 minutes. Without an unforseen circumstance in the next 3 three
stages, the time splits will stand going into the ITT. Ullrich can win, but 2 minutes is ridiculous.

"Keith" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
> On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 19:39:49 -0700, "snjr" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in
the
> >final ITT? I think he may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is
> >in Lance's TT ability by their tactics on
stage
> >16.
>
> Yes he can pull it off. I'd say he can beat him by 2mn in the ITT. Not sure any conclusion will be
> drawn from Stage 16.
>

 

[Martin Recker]

Keith <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 19:39:49 -0700, "snjr" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> >Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
> >may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability
> >by their tactics on stage
> >16.
>
> Yes he can pull it off. I'd say he can beat him by 2mn in the ITT. Not sure any conclusion will be
> drawn from Stage 16.

Looking at the raw times (we can ignore the bonuses because Armstrong and Ullrich got both 20
seconds) we find the following differences Armstrong-Ullrich in seconds

4th stage + 43 (TTT) 8th stage + 84 12th stage - 96 (ITT) 13th stage - 7 15th stage + 40

With another ITT coming Ullrich can surely win the tour. I don't think Armstrong is in better shape
in the 3rd week than in the 2nd. He gained more time in Alpe d'Huez than in Luz-Ardiden.

And I don't believe that dehydration story. Armstrong distanced everybody but Ullrich in the
first ITT.

It will be very close.

 

[Tom Ewall]

"snjr" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
> may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
> their tactics on stage
> 16.

Lance has been a better TT'er than Ullrich. The last TT seems to have been a bit of a fluke. Somehow
LA got dehydrated and lost 15 lbs, which is like half his body weight (O.K., slightly
exeraterating), yet he still managed to finish 2nd. I think Ullrich's best chance was on Saturday
when LA was still weak. But he's back in form now and I think it will be very difficult. I think
there's a good chance LA will win the TT.

Interesting tidbit: if Fignon had had a 1.07 lead instead of .50 he would have won by 8 seconds
instead of losing by 8 seconds.

 

[Gerrit Stolte]

On 22 Jul 2003 08:21:23 -0700, [email protected] (Tom Ewall) wrote:

>"snjr" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
>> may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability
>> by their tactics on stage
>> 16.
>
>Lance has been a better TT'er than Ullrich. The last TT seems to have been a bit of a fluke.
>Somehow LA got dehydrated and lost 15 lbs, which is like half his body weight (O.K., slightly
>exeraterating), yet he still managed to finish 2nd.

More than slightly. Losing 10 percent of your body weight in that short amount of time will bring
you into the hospital in even shorter time. It was a mind game.

 

[Boyd Speerschne]

[email protected] (Tom Ewall) wrote in news:[email protected]:

<snip>

> Interesting tidbit: if Fignon had had a 1.07 lead instead of .50 he would have won by 8 seconds
> instead of losing by 8 seconds.

Really?

What about if the final ITT was 49km (this year) instead of 30km (as in '89)?

- Boyd S.

 

[Willowbeauty]

"Gerrit Stolte" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> On 22 Jul 2003 08:21:23 -0700, [email protected] (Tom Ewall) wrote:
>
> >"snjr" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> >> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in
the
> >> final ITT? I think he may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is
> >> in Lance's TT ability by their tactics on
stage
> >> 16.
> >
> >Lance has been a better TT'er than Ullrich. The last TT seems to have been a bit of a fluke.
> >Somehow LA got dehydrated and lost 15 lbs, which is like half his body weight (O.K., slightly
> >exeraterating), yet he still managed to finish 2nd.
>
> More than slightly. Losing 10 percent of your body weight in that short amount of time will bring
> you into the hospital in even shorter time. It was a mind game.

Yep, complete tripe. Lance might have drunk 4/5 litres before starting the ride but it seems fairly
improbable for a 1hr effort.

 

[Warren]

In article <[email protected]>, Willowbeauty
<[email protected]> wrote:

> "Gerrit Stolte" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> > On 22 Jul 2003 08:21:23 -0700, [email protected] (Tom Ewall) wrote:
> >
> > >"snjr" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:<[email protected]>...
> > >> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in
> the
> > >> final ITT? I think he may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team
> > >> is in Lance's TT ability by their tactics on
> stage
> > >> 16.
> > >
> > >Lance has been a better TT'er than Ullrich. The last TT seems to have been a bit of a fluke.
> > >Somehow LA got dehydrated and lost 15 lbs, which is like half his body weight (O.K., slightly
> > >exeraterating), yet he still managed to finish 2nd.
> >
> > More than slightly. Losing 10 percent of your body weight in that short amount of time will
> > bring you into the hospital in even shorter time. It was a mind game.
>
> Yep, complete tripe. Lance might have drunk 4/5 litres before starting the ride but it seems
> fairly improbable for a 1hr effort.

Don't you think he's losing fluid during his 2 hour warmup?

I don't believe he lost 15 lbs in one day or in the whole week but he was dehydrated somewhat at
least and he has been getting better each day since.

-WG

 

[Rob Benetton]

Only if Lance throws a rod...Jan will have to be superhuman,and still needs Lance to be sub-par.It's
not over til it's over....but it's over,barring a collossal meteor hit or ?

 

[Java Man]

In article <[email protected]>, [email protected] says...
> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
> may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
> their tactics on stage
> 16.
>
Ulrich may win the ITT, but if the advantage LA has over him after Monday holds up until the ITT, JU
probably can't make up enough time to win the GC. His win in the first ITT showed he was really
on-form, but LA's relatively poor showing reveals that, hyperbole aside, LA was below form. LA will
probably look a lot better in the next ITT. I predict JU will not win by more than 20 seconds.

Rick

 

[Lindsay]

On Mon, 21 Jul 2003 19:39:49 -0700, "snjr" <[email protected]> wrote:

>Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
>may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
>their tactics on stage
>16.

Sure he can. We don't know of any lasting effects from the fall yesterday. Lance claimed his hip had
seized up on him and he was having trouble walking after the stage. Lance only has to be off his 'A
Game' by a fraction for Jan to take advantage of it on Sat.

Lindsay
----------------------------
"One of the annoying things about believing in free will and individual responsibility is the
difficulty of finding somebody to blame your problems on. And when you do find somebody, it's
remarkable how often his picture turns up on your driver's license."

P.J. O'Rourke

 

[Tom Ewall]

> And I don't believe that dehydration story. Armstrong distanced everybody but Ullrich in the
> first ITT.
>
> It will be very close.

Armstrong raced poorly Friday, better Saturday (but still poorly), better yet Sunday, and best on
Monday. The expression on his face also showed he was feeling better each day. The evidence supports
something not going right on Friday. Do you think he just made up a story and programmed his facial
expressions and results to match the story?

 

[Kenny]

> Anyone think Ullrich can take 1.37 seconds a Kilo or so out of Lance in the final ITT? I think he
> may be able to do so. I think we will know how confident the USPS team is in Lance's TT ability by
> their tactics on stage
> 16.

Maybe 0.50 s/Km. I don't think he's able of doing 1:07 better than Lance in 50 km.

 

[Joe Hurley]

[email protected] (Martin Recker) wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> >
> Looking at the raw times (we can ignore the bonuses because Armstrong and Ullrich got both 20
> seconds) we find the following differences Armstrong-Ullrich in seconds

Actually, this isn't quite true. Both Armstrong & Ullrich got time bonuses, but not 20 seconds. On
mountain stages like yesterday, winner gets 20 sec time bonus, 2nd place 12 secs, 3rd place 8. Since
they gave Ullrich 3rd place in a photo finish, Armstrong got a net of 12 secs bonus (his 20 minus
Ullrich's 8), which, when added to the 40 secs by which he actually beat Jan at the finish line and
the 15 secs. he laready had produces your current margin of 1' 07".

In time trials, I believe the bonuses are similar, 20 12 and 8 for 1, 2, and 3.

So even if Ullrich wins and Lance gets 2nd, Ullrich only gets a net 8 sec bonus.

Regards,

Joe

 

[Dieter Buerssne]

Joe Hurley wrote:

> Actually, this isn't quite true. Both Armstrong & Ullrich got time bonuses, but not 20 seconds.

Correct.

> On mountain stages like yesterday, winner gets 20 sec time bonus, 2nd place 12 secs, 3rd place 8.

Correct. The same on flat stages (that are not TTs).

> Since they gave Ullrich 3rd place in a photo finish, Armstrong got a net of 12 secs bonus (his 20
> minus Ullrich's 8), which, when added to the 40 secs by which he actually beat Jan at the finish
> line and the 15 secs. he laready had produces your current margin of 1' 07".

Correct.

> In time trials, I believe the bonuses are similar, 20 12 and 8 for 1, 2, and 3.

No.

> So even if Ullrich wins and Lance gets 2nd, Ullrich only gets a net 8 sec bonus.

No.

Stage 8: LA 3rd, JU 13th. Net gain of LA due to time bonus: 8 s Stage 13: JU 2nd. LA 4th. ... -12 s
Stage 15: LA 1st, JU 3rd. ... +12 s

LA gained 8 s over JU due to time bonusses.

Dieter

 

[Nick Burns]

"Tom Ewall" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> > And I don't believe that dehydration story. Armstrong distanced everybody but Ullrich in the
> > first ITT.
> >
> > It will be very close.
>
> Armstrong raced poorly Friday, better Saturday (but still poorly), better yet Sunday, and best on
> Monday. The expression on his face also showed he was feeling better each day. The evidence
> supports something not going right on Friday. Do you think he just made up a story and programmed
> his facial expressions and results to match the story?

You are right that he had a problem. I think he concocted a lot of the details but the root of the
explanation was very likely to be true.

 

[Kurgan Gringion]

"Joe Hurley" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> [email protected] (Martin Recker) wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> > >
> > Looking at the raw times (we can ignore the bonuses because Armstrong and Ullrich got both 20
> > seconds) we find the following differences Armstrong-Ullrich in seconds
>
> Actually, this isn't quite true. Both Armstrong & Ullrich got time bonuses, but not 20 seconds. On
> mountain stages like yesterday, winner gets 20 sec time bonus, 2nd place 12 secs, 3rd place 8.
> Since they gave Ullrich 3rd place in a photo finish, Armstrong got a net of 12 secs bonus (his 20
> minus Ullrich's 8), which, when added to the 40 secs by which he actually beat Jan at the finish
> line and the 15 secs. he laready had produces your current margin of 1' 07".
>
> In time trials, I believe the bonuses are similar, 20 12 and 8 for 1, 2, and 3.

I'm pretty sure they don't give time bonuses for TTs.