Sorry, I hadn't seen this question.
Drag starts as soon as any airflow begins over the bike/rider unit (unless it's from behind, in which case it is thrust). I'm no engineer, but I believe that drag has an effect that is exponential with the airflow. Realistically, this means that aerodynamic gains are minimal until the backward airflow gets to 35-40km/h. The rider's position is always the most important, by far. I understand that wheels are more important than frame. What this means is that a Cervelo-type frame is only meaningfully advantageous once you can hold >35-40km/h on the flat , have perfected your aero position and already have deep section rims. And even then it would only be a handful of seconds over 40km.