China Overtaking Europe

[limerickman]

Er, I'm planning on learning Mandarin actually but I'll skip the script and try Romananized alphabet.
I firmly believe China will be the next (possibly biggest) global superpower.
I concede Europe has a far higher standard of living but Europe's economic growth isn't so impressive. Europeans simply won't be able to sustain their present living standard and welfare without vital economic growth. China has no such handicap.
"Over the past decade, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, growth in the core economies of the EU that make up the eurozone has been a miserable two per cent per annum. Growth in China has been more than four times faster.Today, as a result of reforms dating back to the late 1970s, China has the most dynamic economy in the world and quite possibly in all history. Europe, by contrast, is fast becoming the "sick man" of the developed world - a title held by Japan for most of the past 15 years."

Again, you miss the point :

GDP in Europe is 10 times that of China.
1.1 trillion is 10 times smaller than 11.3 trillion.

With regard to growth rates : no one disputed that China is growing.
Economics tells you that it easier to grow an economy from zero (China), than it is to grow an economy which is already established (Europe/USA)

 

[Carrera]

"Having just visited five of China's fastest growing cities I can report that it looks like the construction of London's Docklands, projected onto multiple plasma screens, all running in fast-forward mode. I have never seen so many cranes. And they work day and night. Not even the United States in its most hectic years - the Roaring Twenties - can have been like this. You go to sleep not knowing how the skyline through your window will look the next morning. Forget the New World. This is the New, New World.
The change in China is so vast that it makes the lead stories in the Western media - the Labour Party conference, the appointment of a new chief justice in the United States - seem almost comically parochial. Did we really kid ourselves that 1989 marked the "end of history" and the "triumph of the West"? The biggest economic transformation of all time is currently being achieved by card-carrying Communists, who show no sign of relinquishing their monopoly on power.
Now imagine that vast country's economy growing more than four times faster than Britain's - growing faster, in fact, than any economy in history. According to Goldman Sachs, China's gross domestic product will overtake Britain's this year."

 

[Carrera]

"China's rise is no longer a prediction. It is a fact. It is already the world's fastest-growing large economy, and the second largest holder of foreign-exchange reserves, mainly dollars. It has the world's largest army (2.5 million men) and the fourth largest defense budget, which is rising by more than 10 percent annually. The results have been astonishing. China has grown around 9 percent a year for more than 25 years, the fastest growth rate for a major economy in recorded history. In that same period it has moved 300 million people out of poverty and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income. And all this has happened, so far, without catastrophic social upheavals. The Chinese leadership has to be given credit for this historic achievement."
Fareed Zakaria - Editor, Newsweek International

 

[Carrera]

Plus, the women are pretty attractive!!

 

[limerickman]

"China's rise is no longer a prediction. It is a fact. It is already the world's fastest-growing large economy, and the second largest holder of foreign-exchange reserves, mainly dollars. It has the world's largest army (2.5 million men) and the fourth largest defense budget, which is rising by more than 10 percent annually. The results have been astonishing. China has grown around 9 percent a year for more than 25 years, the fastest growth rate for a major economy in recorded history. In that same period it has moved 300 million people out of poverty and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income. And all this has happened, so far, without catastrophic social upheavals. The Chinese leadership has to be given credit for this historic achievement."
Fareed Zakaria - Editor, Newsweek International

You're morphing all over the place - let me remind you of your opening post :

The latest data concludes China has just overtaken Italy in the world economic ratings and is soon going to overtake Britain and France. The growth of China's economy has been under-estimated by both the Chinese government and in other countries.
China's productivity and economic advancement is proceeding at a dramatic rate, twice as fast as previously thought.
China has some huge advantages over Europe.

......that's what you posted.

Now explain to me how $1.1 trillion GDP is a higher value than $11.3 trillion
GDP?

 

[Colorado Ryder]

I see China as going the way of seventies and eighties Japan but bigger terrain.
Still there is vast poverty in the country and outside urban areas. However, the cities are prospering, especially Bejing. Then you have Hong Kong which is reasonably content with China so far.
I have a friend who went to China and she told me the place is positively booming. In fact, it's getting more expensive over there for tourists than it used to be.
As for the E.U. six months ago I was a believer in the E.U. dream but the truth is Germany has huge unemployment and slow economic growth. Italy has already been overtaken by China and that's official. France is to be overtaken very shortly.
Maybe the most promising E.U. economy at present is Estonia (Ireland too), however, but this growth isn't shared throughout the E.U.
And above all the major flaw: Europe can never rival the U.S. so let's not kid ourselves. The problem is Europe is too divided and diverse and can never have one, concrete line of policy (in economic terms it will be tough and in foreign policy probably impossible).
So, you Americans on the forum might as well admit it. It's China you're awed by not Europe. Correct?

Limerickman has a very good point. It is easy to grow an economy from zero(China).
If China makes 1 car this year then makes 10 cars next year their economy grows by about 1000%. If the US makes 100 cars this year then makes 110 cars next year then the US economy grew by only about 10%.

And I'm not that awed by China's economy. Who do you think buys all those "made in China" products? The Chinese economy is dependent upon the US economy and our market.

 

[limerickman]

I see China as going the way of seventies and eighties Japan but bigger terrain.
Still there is vast poverty in the country and outside urban areas. However, the cities are prospering, especially Bejing. Then you have Hong Kong which is reasonably content with China so far.
I have a friend who went to China and she told me the place is positively booming. In fact, it's getting more expensive over there for tourists than it used to be.
As for the E.U. six months ago I was a believer in the E.U. dream but the truth is Germany has huge unemployment and slow economic growth. Italy has already been overtaken by China and that's official. France is to be overtaken very shortly.
Maybe the most promising E.U. economy at present is Estonia (Ireland too), however, but this growth isn't shared throughout the E.U.
And above all the major flaw: Europe can never rival the U.S. so let's not kid ourselves. The problem is Europe is too divided and diverse and can never have one, concrete line of policy (in economic terms it will be tough and in foreign policy probably impossible).
So, you Americans on the forum might as well admit it. It's China you're awed by not Europe. Correct?

It's in all our interests to see a strong US economy, regardless of where we happen to live.

The fact of the matter - whether we like it or not - is that with the advent of globalisation all major trading entities are reliant upon each other's wellbeing.
The fact that the Bush administration has not handled it's economic policy wisely not only affect the US economy, it affects the world economy.
The same can be said for the EU and in time China and India.

You're confusing political opposition with economics.

 

[Billsworld]

Hmmm, I'm afraid we seem to be destined to disagree. However, I think david will be on your side over this one (China).
A few months ago, I shared the same European dream you do but my feeling is Europe is going to sour - which is a pity. I don't believe Europe can hope to compete with China and I'll go so far to say China will definitely be the next global superpower.
China is the only military/economic rival to the U.S. Europe has a higher living standard than the U.S. but level of jobs created fall way short of what is required. Europe isn't creating sufficent manufacturing jobs while China is soaring ahead.
The Chinese military program is progressing and heavily linked to the space program so China is expected to leave Europe way behind militarily.
If China's economy continues to grow at this rate it will be right up there with the U.S. very shortly and it's set to overtake France within a very short space of time.
"On the new data, China has eclipsed Italy as the world’s sixth largest economy and should overtake France and Britain next year. It would already have done so if Hong Kong, which is accounted for separately, had been factored in.
China’s GDP is now reckoned to have been worth just under 16trillion yuan, or $1.93 trillion (£1.1 trillion) last year, 16.8 per cent more than it had thought. Projections by Goldman Sachs show that, on present trends, China will leapfrog the US to become the world’s biggest economy by 2035."

No offense to the euros, but I suggest before ASSUMING the standard of living is higher in EU, you should visit/work in the US. I have yet to hear anyone from Europe who lives here and agrees with that. I have seen what a home costs in England, (my wife has one for sale) Its half what you could buy for the same $$ in England, and Boston is one of the most expensive markets in the US. Gas...cheaper.....Jobs more of them. What are you refering to. I do think you might agree with why China is soaring ahead in mfg production.

 

[Billsworld]

The EU is the largest econmic block since sometime 2004.... Isn't there talk of a merger with North America?
I think there has been a lightening up of Chinese supression. But if they continue to embrace the policies of the rest of the world they will face the same problems as the other industrial countries face. The major one will be the human rights people will be crawling all over them. The envoromental people will be there... And China is just across a mudpuddle from California, so then people like Snoop Dogg, Barbra Streisand, and that guy from MASH will really have something to do......... Of course that guy from MASH will not be welcome. The Chinese will remember him from re-runs of MASH and think he was a real soldier. I am sure they still have bad feelings about him, Radar, Hawkeye, and Colonel Potter. And don't let me get started on Colonel Blake......

hehehe. Worse than bio weapons

 

[Carrera]

Sorry, CR, but I think the U.S. is going to have a tougher time competing over the next decade.
Americans have already had their day, made money, gotten rich and lived the good life. But the drive for money and prosperity isn't the same as you'll now find in China.
How many people do you see in the U.S. making a business deal on a mobile phone at 5.00 a.m.? Be honest. But I see this all the time when I travel. people who have once been poor hunger for prosperity and this is what's driving China.
Not that the U.S. will fall or anything like that. Americans will still have influence and, in some case, they'll continue to compete better than the Europeans. But the U.S. is going to have to get used to this idea of a powerful, Asian giant in the Pacific.
Your real rival isn't Europe, it's China. Of course, I may be wrong.
However, everything I've seen of China over the last few years leaves me with little doubt this will be like a giant version of eighties Japan but so much bigger.

Limerickman has a very good point. It is easy to grow an economy from zero(China).
If China makes 1 car this year then makes 10 cars next year their economy grows by about 1000%. If the US makes 100 cars this year then makes 110 cars next year then the US economy grew by only about 10%.

And I'm not that awed by China's economy. Who do you think buys all those "made in China" products? The Chinese economy is dependent upon the US economy and our market.

 

[Carrera]

I had a Texan business friend and we ran a business in Spain. He told me without a doubt the average Spaniard lived better than the average American. More holidays, better pensions, more social protection.
The downside of the coin was Spain was way behind in technology and Spain was creating fewer jobs than in the U.S.
And now it's the other way round in China. The average American lives far better than the average Chinese but China is leaving the U.S. way behind in exports and industry.

No offense to the euros, but I suggest before ASSUMING the standard of living is higher in EU, you should visit/work in the US. I have yet to hear anyone from Europe who lives here and agrees with that. I have seen what a home costs in England, (my wife has one for sale) Its half what you could buy for the same $$ in England, and Boston is one of the most expensive markets in the US. Gas...cheaper.....Jobs more of them. What are you refering to. I do think you might agree with why China is soaring ahead in mfg production.

 

[Carrera]

I take your point about the combined E.U. countries.
But how long with the E.U. last? Don't get me wrong. I would like the E.U. to replace China as the next superpower but there are problems. The E.U. is trying to copy the U.S. model and the U.S. model, I believe, won't work in Europe. We are far more diverse. We are not states but distinct countries with out own languages, cultures and history.
There are big divisions. We couldn't unite at the time of the Iraq war and had Poland opposing France, Britain opposing Germany e.t.c.
China has 2 main languages, Mandarin and Cantonese. It has one economic plan, one state sports program that's producing world class athletes and one military. It has one foreign policy and a strong leadership that can take tough decisions whereas we in Europe are crippled by red tape.
My own firm, for example, is being strangled by legislation and our income reduced.
And now France? What happens if Le Penn gains power? Will France pull out of the E.U.? The ghosts of nationalism and division are rising in France and facists gaining ground in Germany.
China has none of these problems. People there are simply making money. Would Colorado Rider form his bike company in Germany or Shaghai?

You're morphing all over the place - let me remind you of your opening post :



......that's what you posted.

Now explain to me how $1.1 trillion GDP is a higher value than $11.3 trillion
GDP?

 

[Billsworld]

I had a Texan business friend and we ran a business in Spain. He told me without a doubt the average Spaniard lived better than the average American. More holidays, better pensions, more social protection.
The downside of the coin was Spain was way behind in technology and Spain was creating fewer jobs than in the U.S.
And now it's the other way round in China. The average American lives far better than the average Chinese but China is leaving the U.S. way behind in exports and industry.

If I were the type of person that was looking for social security and a pension, I might agree. I just want the chance to make money without being sucked dry by wastefull tax and spend mentality.Untill my wife informed me, I had no real clue as to how much socialism is part of European life. Socialized Medicine and pensions etc.. just drive up the cost of your goods and services and make you less competative in a global sense. US isnt much better though. Things China doesnt have to deal with....yet

 

[Carrera]

I've met some very shrewd Texans in my time. I met one guy who worked several years in Germany and then spent 5 years in Moscow. During his 5 years in Moscow (which was a hell hole at the time) he made enough money to retire permanently.
Then he travelled to Estonia to buy a permanent home. Estonia is cheaper than Moscow and living standards are high with a jug of beer costing some 50 cents. So, he was laughing.
So, sure, there are places where it's good to make money and places where you can retire.
Now, China is certainly the new market for English language schools. Soon this will be a big money business. Anyone with a decent education could go to China and find work teaching in firms - maybe big companies such as Sanyo.
The shrewd Americans are already in China. This country has opportunities for westerners and I'd go myself if I was a few years younger.

If I were the type of person that was looking for social security and a pension, I might agree. I just want the chance to make money without being sucked dry by wastefull tax and spend mentality.Untill my wife informed me, I had no real clue as to how much socialism is part of European life. Socialized Medicine and pensions etc.. just drive up the cost of your goods and services and make you less competative in a global sense. US isnt much better though. Things China doesnt have to deal with....yet

 

[Billsworld]

I've met some very shrewd Texans in my time. I met one guy who worked several years in Germany and then spent 5 years in Moscow. During his 5 years in Moscow (which was a hell hole at the time) he made enough money to retire permanently.
Then he travelled to Estonia to buy a permanent home. Estonia is cheaper than Moscow and living standards are high with a jug of beer costing some 50 cents. So, he was laughing.
So, sure, there are places where it's good to make money and places where you can retire.
Now, China is certainly the new market for English language schools. Soon this will be a big money business. Anyone with a decent education could go to China and find work teaching in firms - maybe big companies such as Sanyo.
The shrewd Americans are already in China. This country has opportunities for westerners and I'd go myself if I was a few years younger.

Thats a good point. FYI... My closest friends agree that china will change radicly in the next 20 yrs.. I just like to argue

 

[Colorado Ryder]

Sorry, CR, but I think the U.S. is going to have a tougher time competing over the next decade.
Americans have already had their day, made money, gotten rich and lived the good life. But the drive for money and prosperity isn't the same as you'll now find in China.
How many people do you see in the U.S. making a business deal on a mobile phone at 5.00 a.m.? Be honest. But I see this all the time when I travel. people who have once been poor hunger for prosperity and this is what's driving China.
Not that the U.S. will fall or anything like that. Americans will still have influence and, in some case, they'll continue to compete better than the Europeans. But the U.S. is going to have to get used to this idea of a powerful, Asian giant in the Pacific.
Your real rival isn't Europe, it's China. Of course, I may be wrong.
However, everything I've seen of China over the last few years leaves me with little doubt this will be like a giant version of eighties Japan but so much bigger.

Is that why almost all Chinese exports go to the US? China had better hope the US economy remains strong. If we go down China will hit the floor real hard. The US market is still by far the largest in the world. China's market has the potential to be as large. But China will need many more reforms before that happens. I'm not so sure that China's political system can survive a US/EU size economy. To be the size of the US or EU they will need to adapt many more market freedoms that the rulers probably won't want to give up.

 

[jhuskey]

Is that why almost all Chinese exports go to the US? China had better hope the US economy remains strong. If we go down China will hit the floor real hard. The US market is still by far the largest in the world. China's market has the potential to be as large. But China will need many more reforms before that happens. I'm not so sure that China's political system can survive a US/EU size economy. To be the size of the US or EU they will need to adapt many more market freedoms that the rulers probably won't want to give up.

I have been meaning to state that point for a while to those that wish woes upon the US economy.
We are consumers and without consumers there is no trade.
If the US goes down we are taking a few with us.

 

[limerickman]

The reality, as I have stated before, is that the entire planets economic systems are now integrated.
This is the by-product of globalisation.

If the EU or China or the USA was to implode economically, it would cause ructions throughout.

 

[jhuskey]

The reality, as I have stated before, is that the entire planets economic systems are now integrated.
This is the by-product of globalisation.

If the EU or China or the USA was to implode economically, it would cause ructions throughout.

Absolutely correct,the bigger the country and it's participation in the world market ,the bigger the ripples that are created when economic anomalies are present in that country.
We are a parasitic society in some ways and I believe it will become more so as we move forward and the world becomes smaller.

 

[Billsworld]

Is that why almost all Chinese exports go to the US? China had better hope the US economy remains strong. If we go down China will hit the floor real hard. The US market is still by far the largest in the world. China's market has the potential to be as large. But China will need many more reforms before that happens. I'm not so sure that China's political system can survive a US/EU size economy. To be the size of the US or EU they will need to adapt many more market freedoms that the rulers probably won't want to give up.

The rulers granting freedom is the big question. I say they will fight against it, but my friend who does biz there is say ing the communist stronghold will end within 20 years. I too have alot of faith in the US economy, but I think the question for us 1)is how long can we continue to borrow, spend AND nation build?2) how much longer can we expand the social spending.? The US seems to be a magnet for every 3rd world country to go to. The libs look at the the cost of "welfare" and dismiss the cost as minimal. The expense goes way past what that one program costs. They neglect to site the cost of SSI, Free medical, Section 8 housing, food stamps, the prison system as a result of the previous. They also dont mention how many illegals are on some or all of those programs. They also neglect to site the cost on busineses and people that are operating on a middle class paycheck,who have to pay for most of the expense. Thanks BW