Comments on new training routine

[Sandy]

Dans le message de
news:[email protected],
[email protected] <[email protected]> a réfléchi, et
puis a déclaré :

> Race tommorrow after 4 weeks of intervals. That's
> 200 minutes at presumably 95% of max HR, but unknown power and thus
> unknown work.

Something is wrong here. I think you are doing too much work during a race,
to think you are expending so much energy and riding so high in your HR
zone. Look at a normal professional race. The guys taking a break take a
real break, and they don't expend anything similar to what you do. Sure,
your size doesn't let you hide as much as would profit, but the estimate is
entirely outside reality of large group racing. I don't want to suggest you
suck wheels all the time, but you should favor that side of the equation. At
least, IMHO.

Another quirk I see is that you look at yourself like a test tube, into
which you can decant new and old elements and concoct a completely new
profile. You're also at an age where, typically, things start to
disintegrate, and performance decreases. I admire your tenacity, but I
think a better race management technique will do you more good than a power
meter.

No offense, please - none intended.
--
Sandy
--
C'est le contraire du vélo, la bicyclette.
Une silhouette profilée mauve fluo dévale
à soixante-dix à l'heure : c'est du vélo.
Deux lycéennes côte à côte traversent
un pont à Bruges : c'est de la bicyclette.
-Delerm, P.

 

[John Forrest Tomlinson]

On Mon, 5 May 2008 14:00:48 -0700 (PDT),
"[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote:

>On May 5, 6:57 pm, Robert Chung <[email protected]> wrote:
>> On May 5, 7:17 am, "[email protected]"
>>
>> <[email protected]> wrote:
>> > > I don't know. Sometimes the virtue of a PM is that it lets you do less
>> > > work. That's the case with me.
>>
>> > In what sense? You were intending to take it easy, but circumstances
>> > (short hill, traffic, etc) kept enticing you to go hard?
>>
>> I don't know what was happening in your HR-guided intervals but
>> occasionally when I start to do a specific set of intervals and I
>> can't hold my power target, I pack it in and go home and try another
>> day. Work = power * time. For me, I was able to use the PM to increase
>> intensity while decreasing time. The overall net effect was a decrease
>> in work but an improvement in fitness.
>
>Sounds good. Keeps you from wasting time on off days so you don't
>needlessly use up the "bike time account" at home for junk.

I don't even understand the point of riding on "off days" if someone
is busy. At most do half an hour easy, perhaps on the trainer.
Beyond that seems to me to be a waste of time, waste of getting
dressed for riding, unless you mentally love it.

 

[SLAVE of THE STATE]

On May 5, 2:02 pm, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]> wrote:
> On May 5, 7:39 pm, SLAVE of THE STATE <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On May 4, 6:55 am, Robert Chung <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > > On May 4, 4:04 am, "[email protected]" wrote:
>
> > > > > Depends on how important that 5% is.
>
> > > > That gets back to my question of whether the difference between 20
> > > > minutes off the back vs 10 minutes off the back is worth $1200.
>
> > > Mass start racing is a very nonlinear sport. You saw that in your last
> > > race, you saw that in the Styrkeproven. A couple of extra watts at the
> > > right moment and you might've been able to hang on at the top of the
> > > hill; a few extra watts of FTP and you might've been able to make it
> > > all the way to Oslo rather than finishing with a multi-hour ITT. If
> > > you're close, it's not the difference between 20 minutes OTB and 10
> > > minutes OTB: it's the difference between 20 minutes OTB and hanging on..
>
> > Dumbass,
>
> > That was what I was trying to get across to Joe in his race report
> > thread.  I told him to "go anaerobic for 5 seconds and tack back
> > on."
>
> I had been anaerobic for minutes prior to getting dropped. Totally
> saturated! Just no more gas!

I sorta figured that.

Therefore: we have this thread.

> > Losing contact is strategically devastating and the OTB finish time
> > means almost nothing, as you point out.  Only the very strongest
> > ITT'ers can weather an OTB experience if the pack isn't sandbagging.
>
> And those folks are very unlikely to end up OTB anyway.

Oh, I've seen strong guys puncture in road races and then get back on
(no free laps), when I could not have done the same. Yeah, they are
the same guys that win a few races.

 

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article <[email protected]>,
Donald Munro <[email protected]> wrote:

> [email protected] wrote:
> > Most people don't do this, as far as I can tell. The answer is usually a
> > little humbling.
>
> Powermeters are tools for humbling.

I thought that job was reserved for time trials.

--
Ryan Cousineau [email protected] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"In other newsgroups, they killfile trolls."
"In rec.bicycles.racing, we coach them."

 

[[email protected]]

On May 5, 1:10 pm, SLAVE of THE STATE <[email protected]> wrote:

> > In a race where a convoy of service vehicles are allowed you sometimes
> > have a chance if they back off a bit after an attack gets away.
>
> Yeah -- that describes every race I ever did.

Like you've never drafted the Velo Promo van.

Ben
The real question is whether the Cat 4 pack is
actually faster than the Velo Promo van.

 

[Robert Chung]

On May 5, 6:17 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
wrote:

> It's not the precision (or accuracy) of the powermeter
> I would doubt, but the definition of threshold power. [...]
> In the lab with lactate monitors and ergometers it
> might be more doable.

Ah. That's why I keep saying "functional" threshold power, or FTP.
Functional threshold is a sleight-of-hand that gets away from lab
tests. It's the power you can maintain for an hour for a maximal
effort. It turns out to be pretty replicable.

> Albatrosses around the neck are very un-aerodynamic -
> perhaps you could fit it into a jersey pocket somehow.

You ever see the cover illustration for Spivak's Comprehensive Intro
to Differential Geometry, vol. 2?

 

[Robert Chung]

On May 5, 2:47 pm, "Sandy" <[email protected]> wrote:
> but I think a better race management technique will do you
> more good than a power meter.

Depends on the type of race but, yes, an experienced racer who knows
what's he doing can make up for a bunch of watts.

 

[Robert Chung]

On May 5, 3:34 pm, John Forrest Tomlinson <[email protected]>
wrote:
>
> I don't even understand the point of riding on "off days" if someone
> is busy. At most do half an hour easy, perhaps on the trainer.
> Beyond that seems to me to be a waste of time, waste of getting
> dressed for riding, unless you mentally love it.

My thinking about "off days" (as opposed to days off) has changed
since I got the PM. In retrospect, an off day was a day when my pre-
ride expectations were out of whack -- I'd be thinking my legs were
feeling good but my times were lousy or my effort turned out to be
high. Now that happens less frequently because I tend to have a better
idea about what I can do that day.

 

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article
<[email protected]>,
Robert Chung <[email protected]> wrote:

> On May 5, 6:17 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
> wrote:
>
> > It's not the precision (or accuracy) of the powermeter
> > I would doubt, but the definition of threshold power. [...]
> > In the lab with lactate monitors and ergometers it
> > might be more doable.
>
> Ah. That's why I keep saying "functional" threshold power, or FTP.
> Functional threshold is a sleight-of-hand that gets away from lab
> tests. It's the power you can maintain for an hour for a maximal
> effort. It turns out to be pretty replicable.
>
> > Albatrosses around the neck are very un-aerodynamic -
> > perhaps you could fit it into a jersey pocket somehow.
>
> You ever see the cover illustration for Spivak's Comprehensive Intro
> to Differential Geometry, vol. 2?

Chung, you of all people should know, visual aids!

http://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-media/product-gallery/0914098713/ref=cm
_ciu_pdp_images_all

Just the research assistant,

--
Ryan Cousineau [email protected] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"In other newsgroups, they killfile trolls."
"In rec.bicycles.racing, we coach them."

 

[Robert Chung]

On May 5, 7:44 pm, Ryan Cousineau <[email protected]> wrote:

> http://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-media/product-gallery/0914098713/ref=_ciu_pdp_images_all
>
> Just the research assistant,

Notice the name of the publisher?

 

[Bret]

On May 5, 7:03 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
wrote:
> On May 5, 1:10 pm, SLAVE of THE STATE <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > > In a race where a convoy of service vehicles are allowed you sometimes
> > > have a chance if they back off a bit after an attack gets away.
>
> > Yeah -- that describes every race I ever did.
>
> Like you've never drafted the Velo Promo van.
>
> Ben
> The real question is whether the Cat 4 pack is
> actually faster than the Velo Promo van.

In Colorado, I know of two cases where people actually got a ride in
the wheel van, up the major climb of the race, and then got out and
rejoined the race.

One of those people in another race, drafted the wheel van through the
start/finish area. The official there got on the radio with the wheel
van and told the driver to tell the racer that she's DQ'd.

Bret

 

[Howard Kveck]

In article <13f259ab-653f-4d5b-9798-98daa7e2cde7@y21g2000hsf.googlegroups.com>,
Bret <[email protected]> wrote:

> On May 5, 7:03 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> > On May 5, 1:10 pm, SLAVE of THE STATE <[email protected]> wrote:
> >
> > > > In a race where a convoy of service vehicles are allowed you sometimes
> > > > have a chance if they back off a bit after an attack gets away.
> >
> > > Yeah -- that describes every race I ever did.
> >
> > Like you've never drafted the Velo Promo van.
> >
> > Ben
> > The real question is whether the Cat 4 pack is
> > actually faster than the Velo Promo van.
>
> In Colorado, I know of two cases where people actually got a ride in
> the wheel van, up the major climb of the race, and then got out and
> rejoined the race.

So Rosie Ruiz is racing bikes in Colorado?

--
tanx,
Howard

Whatever happened to
Leon Trotsky?
He got an icepick
That made his ears burn.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

 

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article
<[email protected]>,
Robert Chung <[email protected]> wrote:

> On May 5, 7:44 pm, Ryan Cousineau <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > http://www.amazon.com/gp/customer-media/product-gallery/0914098713/ref=_ciu_
> > pdp_images_all
> >
> > Just the research assistant,
>
> Notice the name of the publisher?

Heh. That note led me to the publisher's image of the entire cover art:

http://www.mathpop.com/bookhtms/dg2c.htm

I should be clear: I am posting these pictures in a completely
non-judgmental fashion!

--
Ryan Cousineau [email protected] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"In other newsgroups, they killfile trolls."
"In rec.bicycles.racing, we coach them."

 

[[email protected]]

On May 5, 11:47 pm, "Sandy" <[email protected]> wrote:
> Dans le message denews:[email protected],
> [email protected] <[email protected]> a réfléchi, et
> puis a déclaré :
>
> > Race tommorrow after 4 weeks of intervals. That's
> > 200 minutes at presumably 95% of max HR, but unknown power and thus
> > unknown work.
>
> Something is wrong here.  I think you are doing too much work during a race,
> to think you are expending so much energy and riding so high in your HR
> zone.  Look at a normal professional race.  The guys taking a break take a
> real break, and they don't expend anything similar to what you do.  Sure,
> your size doesn't let you hide as much as would profit, but the estimate is
> entirely outside reality of large group racing.  I don't want to suggestyou
> suck wheels all the time, but you should favor that side of the equation. At
> least, IMHO.
>
> Another quirk I see is that you look at yourself like a test tube, into
> which you can decant new and old elements and concoct a completely new
> profile.  You're also at an age where, typically, things start to
> disintegrate, and performance decreases.  I admire your tenacity, but I
> think a better race management technique will do you more good than a power
> meter.
>
> No offense, please - none intended.
> --
> Sandy
> --
> C'est le contraire du vélo, la bicyclette.
> Une silhouette profilée mauve fluo dévale
> à soixante-dix à l'heure : c'est du vélo.
> Deux lycéennes côte à côte traversent
> un pont à Bruges : c'est de la bicyclette.
> -Delerm, P.

I meant the 200 minutes of high intensity intervals at 95%. The race
won't be that bad. It will have of course some high spikes, which are
the tough part.

Today I plan to suck wheel until 100m to go.

I know I'm close to starting to go down-hill in terms of age (38th B-
day today), but I'm still on the way up in terms of gaining fitness,
so I don't think I'll notice a decline yet. I'll just reach my max
potential sooner (and at a lower level) than if I were at the same
place 5 years ago.

Joseph

 

[[email protected]]

On May 6, 12:34 am, John Forrest Tomlinson <[email protected]>
wrote:
> On Mon, 5 May 2008 14:00:48 -0700 (PDT),
>
>
>
> "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote:
> >On May 5, 6:57 pm, Robert Chung <[email protected]> wrote:
> >> On May 5, 7:17 am, "[email protected]"
>
> >> <[email protected]> wrote:
> >> > > I don't know. Sometimes the virtue of a PM is that it lets you do less
> >> > > work. That's the case with me.
>
> >> > In what sense? You were intending to take it easy, but circumstances
> >> > (short hill, traffic, etc) kept enticing you to go hard?
>
> >> I don't know what was happening in your HR-guided intervals but
> >> occasionally when I start to do a specific set of intervals and I
> >> can't hold my power target, I pack it in and go home and try another
> >> day. Work = power * time. For me, I was able to use the PM to increase
> >> intensity while decreasing time. The overall net effect was a decrease
> >> in work but an improvement in fitness.
>
> >Sounds good. Keeps you from wasting time on off days so you don't
> >needlessly use up the "bike time account" at home for junk.
>
> I don't even understand the point of riding on "off days" if someone
> is busy.  At most do half an hour easy, perhaps on the trainer.
> Beyond that seems to me to be a waste of time, waste of getting
> dressed for riding, unless you mentally love it.

I don't recall having an off day on the bike. But I go just by feel.
Maybe I was putting out low power levels and just didn't know it. But
in terms of scheduling, with bringing the kids to school, etc I have
to use the time I have alloted no matter how I feel. But I just do it
for fun anyway. It's never a chore.

Joseph

 

[Donald Munro]

Robert Chung wrote:
> (and, until I can finish this damn albatross of a
> project hanging round my neck, it's headed downward)

Simply replace the albatross with a red herring. They weight less and
are more aero. And you can pop it into your ear when you need to
communicate with a nea-conservative.

 

[Donald Munro]

[email protected] wrote:
>> > Most people don't do this, as far as I can tell. The answer is usually
>> > a little humbling.

Donald Munro wrote:
>> Powermeters are tools for humbling.

Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> I thought that job was reserved for time trials.

A powermeter is far more effiecient. You can get humbled two or
three times a week if you wish. In fact if powermeter users didn't
have a powermeter they would probably pay hookers to dress as nazi
officers and whip them.

 

[[email protected]]

On May 5, 8:59 pm, Bret <[email protected]> wrote:
> On May 5, 7:03 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
> wrote:
>
> > On May 5, 1:10 pm, SLAVE of THE STATE <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > > > In a race where a convoy of service vehicles are allowed you sometimes
> > > > have a chance if they back off a bit after an attack gets away.
>
> > > Yeah -- that describes every race I ever did.
>
> > Like you've never drafted the Velo Promo van.
>
> > Ben
> > The real question is whether the Cat 4 pack is
> > actually faster than the Velo Promo van.
>
> In Colorado, I know of two cases where people actually got a ride in
> the wheel van, up the major climb of the race, and then got out and
> rejoined the race.
>
> One of those people in another race, drafted the wheel van through the
> start/finish area. The official there got on the radio with the wheel
> van and told the driver to tell the racer that she's DQ'd.

I'm not sure there are any wheels in the Velo Promo van.
Maybe. Probably a pump, though. And Bob Leibold,
some sandwiches (for the marshals), some old Granite
Construction barricades that have got hit by a car once
or twice, and somewhere under the barricades there's
a race flyer for Copperopolis 1982.

My comment about the Cat 4 pack and the van wasn't
clear - I was suggesting that drafting the van might
put you further back rather than catching up.

Ben
Bob Leibold is God. I once suggested that our
club add a small picture of Bob to our jerseys.

 

[[email protected]]

On May 5, 1:48 pm, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]> wrote:
> On May 5, 8:07 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> > On May 4, 11:26 pm, "[email protected]"
>
> > <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > On May 5, 6:15 am, Scott <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > > > Just curious, but how do you know you can maintain 250W for even one
> > > > hour, much less 10?
>
> > > Using a handy online calculator like this one:
>
> > >http://www.kreuzotter.de/english/espeed.htm
>
> > > And making guesimates based on known rides.
>
> > > 250W at my size equals about 29km/h on smooth flat roads. The rides I
> > > do are not on smooth, nor flat roads, and my easy long rides (3-4
> > > hours) average about 29km/h. That suggests an average power on those
> > > rides over 250W on rides classified as easy. I also did a 24 hour race
> > > last year (in much weaker condition) where I averaged about 27km/h
> > > while riding (last 4 hours SUPER slow) on similar terrain. I don't
> > > have the split times, but the first 10 hours was well faster than 30km/
> > > h.
>
> > Power calculators are very uncertain if air
> > resistance is significant and you haven't done
> > a reasonably sophisticated model of CdA.
> > Somewhere else you estimated something at
> > 400+/-10 watts.  NFW.  It's not the 400 I object
> > to, but the error bar is way too small.  Not
> > sure I'd even trust a powermeter measure of
> > threshold power to better than +-10 W.
>
> The margin is a WAG based on plugging in different values into
> different calculators. I have done no roll-down tests to determine
> CdA, but I know it's pretty lousy. People never can guess my actual
> weight, and underestimate usually by at least 20lbs. This is because I
> am have broad shoulders and this belies how big I am when people go by
> the level of visible fat. That just means I am a barn door. And the
> roads around here are quite rough, which leads to high RR. Someone
> visiting me one thought there was something wrong with their rental
> car because there was so much road buzz.
>
> > I have no problem believing you can hold 250W
> > for an hour (not that hard esp. for a big guy)
> > but 10 hours, don't know.
>
> Riding on the tops and hoods, more or less just putting along on my
> easy rides I average 29km/h. This is over a few hours on some hills
> that are slow enough for me to use the 39x25. That's average about
> 250W. No problem to up the intensity a little and maintain 250.
>
> Here are split times from last year's Trondheim-Oslo race:
>
> http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=422&t=www&l=...
>
> I got dropped after the second split time at about hour 14 or so, and
> then the intensity and speed nosedived. That whole race was in heavy
> headwinds (and rain).
>
> Here is a profile (and temperatures for freak warm conditions in
> 2001!):http://www.ntnu.no/ntnu-bil/grupper/sykkel/result/stpr01_h+T_bard.jpg
>
> Sure it takes 200km to get to only 1000m, but lots of smaller hills
> disapear in the scale of the graph. Those hills were taken at
> significanlty more that the average wattage.
>
> No way I didn't put out more than 250W for the first 10.5 hours to
> Lillehammer. It was in an echelon, so I was drafting, but still. And
> this year I am significanlty stronger. I chopped 1 minute off my 10km
> ITT times from last year. 250W for 10 hours, no problem. (Not no
> sweat, however!)
>
>
>
> > The easiest way to do a decent power estimation
> > is to find a roughly 10 minute or longer hill and time
> > yourself up it on a fairly windless day.  It needs
> > to be steep enough that air resistance isn't a big
> > factor, but 5-6% grade is usually good enough for that.
> > Time, elevation and weight plus small factors
> > for rolling and air resistance give the answer.
>
> > Most people don't do this, as far as I can tell.
> > The answer is usually a little humbling.
>
> I did that 2 years ago, and used the results to help me calibrate
> myself vis-a-vis the online calculators. I determined my wattage at
> the time (260W if I recall), and then based on times for 10km ITTs, I
> was able to adjust CdA to get it to match.
>
> A few months ago I did some hill training with some of my faster
> buddies. One has a GPS. Afterward, I extrapolated to get an estimate
> of wattage, and that result supports my general fudge values.

d00d,

I can't see you and don't know what type of riding
you do or how you look doing it. But I don't believe
averaging a bunch of WAG estimates can support a
power estimate to 2.5% (400+/-10).

I think it's really hard to go from an average speed
for a ride and some estimate of hilliness to say that
you averaged 250W for the ride. Averaging 250W
for a few hours is a pretty hard ride at the Fat Master
level, even for large fellows. When people think about
their average power for a ride, they underestimate all
the time they spent soft-pedaling or not on the rivet.

Don't do these estimates with somebody else's GPS
or by extrapolating (to what?) For all the thought you've
put into this, go find a hill and time yourself; use a topo
map for the elevation. If you're going to try to monitor
your training and don't want to spring for a PM, pick
your favorite climb and keep doing it occasionally
throughout the season as a check.

But basically, you want a PM. We know you want it.
Join the FMs ... join them ...

Ben
One of these days, even I am going to break down
and ask to borrow my coworker's Powertap.

 

[[email protected]]

On May 6, 11:57 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
wrote:
> On May 5, 1:48 pm, "[email protected]"
>
>
>
> <[email protected]> wrote:
> > On May 5, 8:07 pm, "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
> > wrote:
>
> > > On May 4, 11:26 pm, "[email protected]"
>
> > > <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > > On May 5, 6:15 am, Scott <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > > > > Just curious, but how do you know you can maintain 250W for even one
> > > > > hour, much less 10?
>
> > > > Using a handy online calculator like this one:
>
> > > >http://www.kreuzotter.de/english/espeed.htm
>
> > > > And making guesimates based on known rides.
>
> > > > 250W at my size equals about 29km/h on smooth flat roads. The rides I
> > > > do are not on smooth, nor flat roads, and my easy long rides (3-4
> > > > hours) average about 29km/h. That suggests an average power on those
> > > > rides over 250W on rides classified as easy. I also did a 24 hour race
> > > > last year (in much weaker condition) where I averaged about 27km/h
> > > > while riding (last 4 hours SUPER slow) on similar terrain. I don't
> > > > have the split times, but the first 10 hours was well faster than 30km/
> > > > h.
>
> > > Power calculators are very uncertain if air
> > > resistance is significant and you haven't done
> > > a reasonably sophisticated model of CdA.
> > > Somewhere else you estimated something at
> > > 400+/-10 watts.  NFW.  It's not the 400 I object
> > > to, but the error bar is way too small.  Not
> > > sure I'd even trust a powermeter measure of
> > > threshold power to better than +-10 W.
>
> > The margin is a WAG based on plugging in different values into
> > different calculators. I have done no roll-down tests to determine
> > CdA, but I know it's pretty lousy. People never can guess my actual
> > weight, and underestimate usually by at least 20lbs. This is because I
> > am have broad shoulders and this belies how big I am when people go by
> > the level of visible fat. That just means I am a barn door. And the
> > roads around here are quite rough, which leads to high RR. Someone
> > visiting me one thought there was something wrong with their rental
> > car because there was so much road buzz.
>
> > > I have no problem believing you can hold 250W
> > > for an hour (not that hard esp. for a big guy)
> > > but 10 hours, don't know.
>
> > Riding on the tops and hoods, more or less just putting along on my
> > easy rides I average 29km/h. This is over a few hours on some hills
> > that are slow enough for me to use the 39x25. That's average about
> > 250W. No problem to up the intensity a little and maintain 250.
>
> > Here are split times from last year's Trondheim-Oslo race:
>
> >http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=422&t=www&l=...
>
> > I got dropped after the second split time at about hour 14 or so, and
> > then the intensity and speed nosedived. That whole race was in heavy
> > headwinds (and rain).
>
> > Here is a profile (and temperatures for freak warm conditions in
> > 2001!):http://www.ntnu.no/ntnu-bil/grupper/sykkel/result/stpr01_h+T_bard..jpg
>
> > Sure it takes 200km to get to only 1000m, but lots of smaller hills
> > disapear in the scale of the graph. Those hills were taken at
> > significanlty more that the average wattage.
>
> > No way I didn't put out more than 250W for the first 10.5 hours to
> > Lillehammer. It was in an echelon, so I was drafting, but still. And
> > this year I am significanlty stronger. I chopped 1 minute off my 10km
> > ITT times from last year. 250W for 10 hours, no problem. (Not no
> > sweat, however!)
>
> > > The easiest way to do a decent power estimation
> > > is to find a roughly 10 minute or longer hill and time
> > > yourself up it on a fairly windless day.  It needs
> > > to be steep enough that air resistance isn't a big
> > > factor, but 5-6% grade is usually good enough for that.
> > > Time, elevation and weight plus small factors
> > > for rolling and air resistance give the answer.
>
> > > Most people don't do this, as far as I can tell.
> > > The answer is usually a little humbling.
>
> > I did that 2 years ago, and used the results to help me calibrate
> > myself vis-a-vis the online calculators. I determined my wattage at
> > the time (260W if I recall), and then based on times for 10km ITTs, I
> > was able to adjust CdA to get it to match.
>
> > A few months ago I did some hill training with some of my faster
> > buddies. One has a GPS. Afterward, I extrapolated to get an estimate
> > of wattage, and that result supports my general fudge values.
>
> d00d,
>
> I can't see you and don't know what type of riding
> you do or how you look doing it.  But I don't believe
> averaging a bunch of WAG estimates can support a
> power estimate to 2.5% (400+/-10).

Ok, the 2.5% is just pulled out of my you know what, but my 10km ITT
times don't seem to vary by more than 5 seconds either way, so I
figure my output is pretty consistent, if not constant.

>
> I think it's really hard to go from an average speed
> for a ride and some estimate of hilliness to say that
> you averaged 250W for the ride.  Averaging 250W
> for a few hours is a pretty hard ride at the Fat Master
> level, even for large fellows.  When people think about
> their average power for a ride, they underestimate all
> the time they spent soft-pedaling or not on the rivet.

If anything, I think my guestimates about relative hilliness
underestimate the average!

A flat road on the drops for me with 250W would be about 21mph. There
is no way I couldn't keep 21 mph if I ever found some flat road long
enough. It would probably be harder than I expect, but certainly
doable.

> Don't do these estimates with somebody else's GPS
> or by extrapolating (to what?)  For all the thought you've
> put into this, go find a hill and time yourself; use a topo
> map for the elevation.  If you're going to try to monitor
> your training and don't want to spring for a PM, pick
> your favorite climb and keep doing it occasionally
> throughout the season as a check.

When I used his GPS data, the only thing that didn't match was the HR,
as that was his! We rode together, so I could look at any particular
part of the ride and figure the grade, see the speed, and knowing my
weight figure out my watts (and his).

I should go do as you suggest and just go time myself on a hill. What
about my laziness?


> But basically, you want a PM.  We know you want it.
> Join the FMs ... join them ...

That sounds very reasonable. I suppose if I drop enough hints, one
will materialize in my Christmas stocking.

> Ben
> One of these days, even I am going to break down
> and ask to borrow my coworker's Powertap.

I only know one guy with a PM and it's a Polar. If it were anything
else, I'd ask to borrow it. Too much hassle monkeying with all the
wires.

Joseph