Cost of bicycling: graphical followup



On Sun, 16 Oct 2005 01:38:02 +0000, Neil Brooks wrote:

> "Great Googly Moogly" ??? Inquiring minds want to know....


My club names its rides... Great Googly Moogly is one of the regular
rides. The last one of the season is tomorrow. See:

http://www.mtn.org/tcbc/schd.official.current.html

FWIW, I've never seen anyone actually say the name of this one (perhaps
because a straight face would be difficult?).

> (Mmmmm. Data.)


Crunchy.

Reid
 
Reid Priedhorsky wrote:

> I'm interested in comment from the rest of RBM, i.e., flame on. ;)
>
> Reid


Who is Erin, and what made her very hot?
 
Reid Priedhorsky wrote:
> On Sat, 15 Oct 2005 13:21:09 +0000, Ron Wallenfang wrote:
>
>>Ride a $1500 bike for 3000 miles and you apparent cost is .50 per mile.
>>But as was requently pointed out ast time you posted, the bike is good
>>for a lot more than that. One of the bikes I have now has 35,000 miles

>
>
> The gist of the objection was, "you are ignoring future utility". My
> opinion is that future mileage is impossible for me to estimate with any
> useful degree of accuracy. Further, future costs are even harder to
> estimate: Will I wreck it and need a new bike? What accessories will I
> buy? Am I going to turn my old bike into a fixie? Etc. (Note that I'm
> interested in the cost of "bicycling", not "bicycling on this particular
> machine".)
>
> I'd prefer to figure out the steady-state cost by using actual data.
> Eventually, the rate of decay of the cost/mile ratio will stabilize
> (because I'm not going to stop buying things while continuing to
> accumulate miles, it won't converge to zero). That will be the cost per
> mile of bicycling -- backed up by data, not my own poorly informed
> guessing about the future.
>
> Others may be able to estimate their own future mileage and costs with
> useful accuracy, but I'm not one of those people.
>
> Reid
>


I think your list of future costs - new bike, accessories, fixie mod -
is questionable.

Costs for actual maintenance are valid. Costs for needs are valid.
Costs for unnecessary items (wants) really don't stand up, unless you
include similar items for your comparison of driving costs.

Wrecking a bike is harder than it sounds. You have to work at it (or
get help from a car driver). Help usually entails insurance, minimizing
your cost. Of course, if you choose to do silly things with your bike,
that is at your cost, but I'm not certain that it is fair to include
such costs in your cost of bicycling.

Useful accessories, such as saddle bags, do wear out but good ones -
properly cared for - last a long time.
 
Rich wrote:
> The Wogster wrote:
>
>> Now how about the car, high initial cost, high carrying costs, a car
>> is a pit you endlessly pour money into. ..... Other then speed,
>> unless your stuck in traffic, there are no benefits.

>
> Except for the fact it's "all weather" (rain, snow, sub-zero temps).
> And it can carry an entire family.
> And 10 bags of groceries.
> And can go 1000 miles in one day.
>
> A car can meet all your transportation needs. Which is why almost
> everyone (in the U.S. anyway) that can afford one has one.


All true, although most of the time, that car carries only
one person, just like a bike. I commute by bike all year
(here in snowy/icy New England), so it can be all weather
with proper setup and preparation.

Motor transport is extremely convenient and it will never
go away, nor should it. However we Americans have given
it too much of a place in our culture. It needs some
demotion in consideration, and we'd all be better off for
it.

This coming from someone who owns (and dearly loves) his
V-8 gas guzzling pickup truck (with a recent record $91
regular [87 octane] gastank fillup)!


SMH
 
Thomas Wentworth <[email protected]> wrote:
:> "Reid Priedhorsky" <[email protected]> wrote in message
:> news:p[email protected]...
:>> Dear RBM,
:>>
:>> A few weeks ago, I calculated the cost my bicycling, specifically,
:>> the cost of each mile accumulated at the time the whim struck me. I
:>> posted my number, which generated quite a few followups.
:>>
:>> Since this number varies over time, it seemed appropriate to get a
:>> graphical view of the matter. Here is my graph of time spent
:>> accumulating miles vs. cost per mile accumulated:
:>>
:>> http://reidster.net/logs/bike.html (click on "Cost per Mile")
:>>
:>> Eventually, I would expect the graph to level out; then, that value
:>> is the approximate steady-state cost of bicycling (i.e. the price
:>> in dollars of the various benefits of bicycling).
:>>
:>> I'm interested in comment from the rest of RBM, i.e., flame on. ;)
:>>
:>> Reid
:>
:> =============================================================
:> Reid, ... There are 40,000 dead in Pakistan. New Orleans looks
:> like the local swimming hole. In Iraq, some cave dwelling moron
:> will blow himself up ................
:>
:> And you spend time figuring out your cost per mile of bicycling.
:>
:> Just goes to show ya......
:>
:> Its always something.

Better to do that then to spend (too much) time thinking about all the
horrible things happening to people. Send money, volunteer (one or both),
and get on with life.
 
[email protected] wrote:
:> Reid Priedhorsky wrote:
:>> On Sat, 15 Oct 2005 13:21:09 +0000, Ron Wallenfang wrote:
:>> >
:>> > Ride a $1500 bike for 3000 miles and you apparent cost is .50 per
:>> > mile. But as was requently pointed out ast time you posted, the
:>> > bike is good for a lot more than that. One of the bikes I have
:>> > now has 35,000 miles
:>>
:>> The gist of the objection was, "you are ignoring future utility". My
:>> opinion is that future mileage is impossible for me to estimate
:>> with any useful degree of accuracy. Further, future costs are even
:>> harder to estimate: Will I wreck it and need a new bike? What
:>> accessories will I buy? Am I going to turn my old bike into a
:>> fixie? Etc. (Note that I'm interested in the cost of "bicycling",
:>> not "bicycling on this particular machine".)
:>>
:>> I'd prefer to figure out the steady-state cost by using actual data.
:>> Eventually, the rate of decay of the cost/mile ratio will stabilize
:>> (because I'm not going to stop buying things while continuing to
:>> accumulate miles, it won't converge to zero).
:>
:> Actually I think it becomes asymtotic very close to zero as the
:> mileage increases unless you start spending really big dollars. (See
:> my earlier posting with graph. Of course, a new bike every year
:> makes my assumptions moot.

Nice graphs...However, I wouldn't show it going identically to zero...adjust
the scale so you can see that there is some cost other than "zero." There
will always be some significant, albeit small, cost. We need to see that
it's not zero to be taken seriously, IMO.
 
Reid Priedhorsky <[email protected]> wrote:
:> On Sun, 16 Oct 2005 01:38:02 +0000, Neil Brooks wrote:
:>
:>> "Great Googly Moogly" ??? Inquiring minds want to know....
:>
:> My club names its rides...

And what is that name supposed to imply? I'd be kinda hesitant to attempt
it without knowing more :)


Great Googly Moogly is one of the regular
:> rides. The last one of the season is tomorrow. See:
:>
:> http://www.mtn.org/tcbc/schd.official.current.html
:>
:> FWIW, I've never seen anyone actually say the name of this one
:> (perhaps because a straight face would be difficult?).
:>
:>> (Mmmmm. Data.)
:>
:> Crunchy.
:>
:> Reid
 
On Sun, 16 Oct 2005 07:41:49 -0500, "Roger Houston"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>
>"Roger Zoul" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>news:[email protected]...
>>
>> And what is that name supposed to imply? I'd be kinda hesitant to attempt
>> it without knowing more :)

>
>It's a reference to an expression used by character on "The Simpsons".
>


I believe it predates the Simpsons .I first heard it used by Frank
Zappa.

I just Googled it, goes all the way back to the 50s.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Googly_Moogly


Life is Good!
Jeff
 
On Sun, 16 Oct 2005 01:38:02 GMT, Neil Brooks <[email protected]> wrote:

>[as to the graph, I'm squarely in the camp that believes you should
>only be expensing the depreciation of the capital expenses (fixed
>assets) like the bike, but .....]


A bike's not a fixed asset. Theft, accident, simple bad luck. Much better
to write it off all at once. Even if you do go for 'only depreciation',
depreciation on a bike is much, much worse than on a car. A bike loses
more of its value being rolled off the lot and after a few years it can be
entirely functional and well maintained and still only fetch a small
fraction of the purchase price.

It is most especially not realistic to quantify the depreciation as
purchase price divided by expected lifespan -- that is in fact much less
realistic than writing it off all at once.

Jasper
 
Reid Priedhorsky wrote:
> On Sat, 15 Oct 2005 14:33:21 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
> >
> > Reid Priedhorsky wrote:
> > >
> > > I'd prefer to figure out the steady-state cost by using actual data.
> > > Eventually, the rate of decay of the cost/mile ratio will stabilize
> > > (because I'm not going to stop buying things while continuing to
> > > accumulate miles, it won't converge to zero).

> >
> > Actually I think it becomes asymtotic very close to zero as the mileage
> > increases unless you start spending really big dollars. (See my earlier
> > posting with graph. Of course, a new bike every year makes my
> > assumptions moot.

>
> I saw your other posting. Care to share your gnuplot code?


No problem but it's pretty simple minded. It is just bout the first
thing I have ever done in gnuplot. IIRC I just set up a simple
spreadsheet to spread the costs over 5 year period and graphed the
results.
An email to the above address with a CLEAR subject header will get you
the file.

>
> Anyway, are you asserting that the graph will stabilize at a cost/mile
> that's so low we may as well ignore it? I don't think that's the case.


Essentially yes though it depends on the yearly expenditures vs mileage
ratio.

>
> Suppose our goal cost/mile is $0.05. If we make a $100 purchase, then
> after 2,000 miles the cost/mile for that particular purchase is $0.05. If
> we assume 4,000 miles per year, then this implies a (rather loose) upper
> bound on the rate of purchases of $100 every six months, or $200/year, to
> keep costs at $0.05 mile. IMO $0.05 isn't near enough to zero to be
> insignificant, and this spending level and mileage are fairly optimistic
> for my own habits. YMMV.


I had a look at my data file and at 60 months it was at CDN$.07
(rounded) per km and still descending. It took 12 months to go from
roughly $0.10 to $0.07. and as far as I can see, unless there is a
large capital expenditure it is going to keep going down though to what
limit I'm not sure and I've forgotten any calculus I once had to write
an equation for it. :( I think it would bottom out at about a little
over $0.036 since the capital cost is slowly becoming trivial and
$180/5000km ~= $0.036.

While this is not completely trivial it means that I can ride for 30+
km for the cost of a regular Tim Horton's coffee. If I ride further
each year the cost/km goes down.

IRRC my highest mileage year was just about 10,000 km or about
$0.02/km. At North American or OECD income/price levels this is
becoming very trivial. Ride more per year and the cost/km goes even
lower.

John Kane
Kingston ON
 
Roger Zoul wrote:
> [email protected] wrote:
> :> Reid Priedhorsky wrote:
> :>> On Sat, 15 Oct 2005 13:21:09 +0000, Ron Wallenfang wrote:
> :>> >
> :>> > Ride a $1500 bike for 3000 miles and you apparent cost is .50 per
> :>> > mile. But as was requently pointed out ast time you posted, the
> :>> > bike is good for a lot more than that. One of the bikes I have
> :>> > now has 35,000 miles
> :>>
> :>> The gist of the objection was, "you are ignoring future utility". My
> :>> opinion is that future mileage is impossible for me to estimate
> :>> with any useful degree of accuracy. Further, future costs are even
> :>> harder to estimate: Will I wreck it and need a new bike? What
> :>> accessories will I buy? Am I going to turn my old bike into a
> :>> fixie? Etc. (Note that I'm interested in the cost of "bicycling",
> :>> not "bicycling on this particular machine".)
> :>>
> :>> I'd prefer to figure out the steady-state cost by using actual data.
> :>> Eventually, the rate of decay of the cost/mile ratio will stabilize
> :>> (because I'm not going to stop buying things while continuing to
> :>> accumulate miles, it won't converge to zero).
> :>
> :> Actually I think it becomes asymtotic very close to zero as the
> :> mileage increases unless you start spending really big dollars. (See
> :> my earlier posting with graph. Of course, a new bike every year
> :> makes my assumptions moot.
>
> Nice graphs...However, I wouldn't show it going identically to zero...adjust
> the scale so you can see that there is some cost other than "zero." There
> will always be some significant, albeit small, cost. We need to see that
> it's not zero to be taken seriously, IMO.


It is not going _to_ zero. It is asymtotic at some very low but
non-zero value. It depends on mainly on mileage after a while. Ride
20,000 km/year with my cost assumptions and the cost/km will be under a
penny per km but it will not be zero.

The graphs cannot accomodate the scale change and besides I didn't do
the calculations to allow it.

John Kane
Kingston ON
 
In article <[email protected]>,
"Roger Houston" <[email protected]> writes:
>
> "Roger Zoul" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
>>
>> And what is that name supposed to imply? I'd be kinda hesitant to attempt
>> it without knowing more :)

>
> It's a reference to an expression used by character on "The Simpsons".


"Great "googly moogly" also appears in the Frank Zappa
tune: Nanook Rubs It (sequel to Yellow Snow), on the
Apostrophe album.


cheers,
Tom

--
-- Nothing is safe from me.
Above address is just a spam midden.
I'm really at: tkeats [curlicue] vcn [point] bc [point] ca
 
On 16 Oct 2005 09:42:16 -0700, "[email protected]"
<[email protected]> wrote:

>It is not going _to_ zero. It is asymtotic at some very low but
>non-zero value. It depends on mainly on mileage after a while. Ride
>20,000 km/year with my cost assumptions and the cost/km will be under a
>penny per km but it will not be zero.
>
>The graphs cannot accomodate the scale change and besides I didn't do
>the calculations to allow it.


The ideal-case-graph from earlier in the thread is f(x)= 180/5000 +
2000/x. The asymptote, therefore, is 180/5000: in other words: You spend
$180 every 5000 miles, which you keep on doing in perpetuity, and the
$2000 initial expenditure, at lim x-> +inf, makes a contribution of zero
to that.

Jasper
 
Roger Zoul wrote:
> [email protected] wrote:
> :> Reid Priedhorsky wrote:


> :> Actually I think it becomes asymtotic very close to zero as the
> :> mileage increases unless you start spending really big dollars. (See
> :> my earlier posting with graph. Of course, a new bike every year
> :> makes my assumptions moot.
>
> Nice graphs...However, I wouldn't show it going identically to zero...adjust
> the scale so you can see that there is some cost other than "zero." There
> will always be some significant, albeit small, cost. We need to see that
> it's not zero to be taken seriously, IMO.


Correct, it approaches the annual maintenance cost per mile. And
usually, an older bike will start to need more parts. 4000 km/yr might
need each year 2 tires, 6 tubes, 1 patch kit, 1 tuneup, tape or hand
grip. every other year add a chain. after 3 or 4 years you might need
some bearing, perhaps a seat. So the maintenance cost might increase
about 10-20 % a year until they are double the orignial maintenance.
 
Jasper Janssen wrote:
> On Sun, 16 Oct 2005 01:38:02 GMT, Neil Brooks <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
>>[as to the graph, I'm squarely in the camp that believes you should
>>only be expensing the depreciation of the capital expenses (fixed
>>assets) like the bike, but .....]

>
>
> A bike's not a fixed asset. Theft, accident, simple bad luck. Much better
> to write it off all at once. Even if you do go for 'only depreciation',
> depreciation on a bike is much, much worse than on a car. A bike loses
> more of its value being rolled off the lot and after a few years it can be
> entirely functional and well maintained and still only fetch a small
> fraction of the purchase price.


A fixed asset, which is something you own, that is intended to be kept
for a period longer then one year. This is opposed to liquid assets,
like business inventory, that are intended on being resold, over a term
of less then one year. Of course the ultimate liquid asset is cash.
An expense is something you use up, and should be simply expensed when
obtained.

Very few people need a new bike every year, well some of the trick
riders, and the guys who jump off 5m cliffs, might, a decent Al framed
MTB used for technical off-roading probably will last 2 - 3 years, same
bike used for non-technical off roading probably 3 - 5 years, used for
mostly road riding, and you could stretch that to 10 - 15 years quite
easily.

Some of it has to do with the type of bike too, an X-mart special using
cheap components will last a considerably shorter period of time, then a
high end bike using top of the line components. Of course like many
other things, there are middle of the road brands, that use mid range
components, and will last a moderate amount of time.

> It is most especially not realistic to quantify the depreciation as
> purchase price divided by expected lifespan -- that is in fact much less
> realistic than writing it off all at once.


Bikes are like cars, a $15,000 car is worth $10,000 the moment you drive
off the lot, and each year it drops a little less, until you get to a
value of around $1,500, when it seems to stay around there, until it's
ready for the wrecking yard.

Bikes are the same, just the numbers are different, but the ratios are
similar, a bike that was new at $500, will probably be worth $250 at the
end of a year, $150 at the end of 2 years, $100 at the end of 3 years,
and $50, at the end of 4 years. It will likely stay at around $50,
until it becomes $5 worth of scrap metal. So a reasonable depreciation
would be 4 years. If your figuring out the cost of biking, the bike
depreciates by $112.50 per year for 4 years ( (500-50)/4 = 112.50 ), it
stops being part of the equation after 4 years, but stays on the books
at $50 value.

Now if you buy accessories that are intended to be attached to the bike,
but have different rates of depreciation, they should be considered
separately, unless they have a value so low, that it's too small to be
considered (a $7.50 kickstand, or a $5 bottle cage for example). A $400
lighting system, would be considered separately.

Items like tires, brake pads and chains would simply be an expense.

W
 
On Mon, 17 Oct 2005 19:27:55 -0400, The Wogster wrote:
>
> Jasper Janssen wrote:
> >
> > A bike's not a fixed asset. Theft, accident, simple bad luck. Much
> > better to write it off all at once. Even if you do go for 'only
> > depreciation', depreciation on a bike is much, much worse than on a
> > car. A bike loses more of its value being rolled off the lot and after
> > a few years it can be entirely functional and well maintained and
> > still only fetch a small fraction of the purchase price.

>
> A fixed asset, which is something you own, that is intended to be kept
> for a period longer then one year. This is opposed to liquid assets,
> like business inventory, that are intended on being resold, over a term
> of less then one year. Of course the ultimate liquid asset is cash. An
> expense is something you use up, and should be simply expensed when
> obtained.


[...]

> Bikes are the same, just the numbers are different, but the ratios are
> similar, a bike that was new at $500, will probably be worth $250 at the
> end of a year, $150 at the end of 2 years, $100 at the end of 3 years,
> and $50, at the end of 4 years. It will likely stay at around $50,
> until it becomes $5 worth of scrap metal. So a reasonable depreciation
> would be 4 years. If your figuring out the cost of biking, the bike
> depreciates by $112.50 per year for 4 years ( (500-50)/4 = 112.50 ), it
> stops being part of the equation after 4 years, but stays on the books
> at $50 value.


Well, my bicycling isn't a business, so I don't really think it's
appropriate to treat it as if it were. For example, I don't intend to ever
sell my bike, so I don't think any resale value at all can be assigned.

Also, as I noted earlier, even if I *did* want to be a business
accountant, how am I going to get a meaningful value for the depreciation?
You've expensed your bike above over 4 years, but why 4? Do you have any
data to back that up, or, more specifically, do you have any data *I*
could use to get a depreciation for my *own* bike? And what if it's
stolen? etc. How do I depreciate the cassette that I took off and is
sitting in the closet? It's not losing any value by sitting.

And we can get philisophical. I've already replaced the cassette. Is it
really the same bike? What if I change out the wheels?

> Now if you buy accessories that are intended to be attached to the bike,
> but have different rates of depreciation, they should be considered
> separately, unless they have a value so low, that it's too small to be
> considered (a $7.50 kickstand, or a $5 bottle cage for example). A $400
> lighting system, would be considered separately.
>
> Items like tires, brake pads and chains would simply be an expense.


That's a lot of work. I *do* have enough data on hand already for my
method, and I like its simplicity. Cost per mile = money in / miles out.
It's unstable now, but it will stabilize within a few years, and no
precognition is necessary.

All that said, however, I *would* be very interested to see
rigorous estimates of cycling costs using business-style methods as you
advocate.

Reid
 
On Mon, 17 Oct 2005 20:10:43 -0400, The Wogster wrote:
>
> if your doing $500 worth of maintenance on a $500 bike, well, why not
> replace it?


Well, because an old workhorse is probably a very nice bike -- if you
spend $500 on a new bike, you get something low-end, but if you spend $500
on your old workhorse, you get a really nice bike for 500 bucks (and you
know it fits you, your accessories fit the bike, etc.).

Same deal for cars.

One shouldn't replace if "repair cost > resale value", but rather if
"quality of repaired object < quality of object bought for repair cost".

Reid
 
Reid Priedhorsky wrote:
> On Mon, 17 Oct 2005 20:10:43 -0400, The Wogster wrote:
>
>>if your doing $500 worth of maintenance on a $500 bike, well, why not
>>replace it?

>
>
> Well, because an old workhorse is probably a very nice bike -- if you
> spend $500 on a new bike, you get something low-end, but if you spend $500
> on your old workhorse, you get a really nice bike for 500 bucks (and you
> know it fits you, your accessories fit the bike, etc.).



Depends on what you consider low end, $500 buys a mid-range MTB bike, at
least around here... Although you exchange the frame for one with a
full height top tube, no shock fork, and road bars, with all other
components identical, and it's $1,500. If workhorse is under 5 years
old, and you paid $500 when new, then your $500 probably buys you a
similar bike.

>
> Same deal for cars.
>
> One shouldn't replace if "repair cost > resale value", but rather if
> "quality of repaired object < quality of object bought for repair cost".
>


Well, it depends on how you do maintenance, with cars, when monthly
repair cost > monthly replacement cost it's time to replace. For
example if you can buy a new one for $250/month and the existing one is
costing you $255/month then it's time to replace. Of course I always
buy one that is brand new, then drive it until it gets too expensive to
maintain. My existing car is quickly getting there....

With bikes the numbers are different, however if the cost of getting
your existing bike into proper mechanical order is $550 and buying a
similar quality of new bike is $500 then it depends on what you value
the existing bike at, is that value more then $50?

W
 
Jasper Janssen wrote:
> Even if you do go for 'only depreciation',
> depreciation on a bike is much, much worse than on a car. A bike loses
> more of its value being rolled off the lot and after a few years it can be
> entirely functional and well maintained and still only fetch a small
> fraction of the purchase price.


Explain to me again how this is different from an automobile?

'Cause to me, it sounds absolutely identical to what happens with an
automobile.

Case in point, I've got a '95 Mercury Tracer. New it was about
$20,000. After the first 100,000 miles it was worth about $500. Now
it's got 200,000 on it and it's still worth about $500. It works just
fine and there's no reason it won't keep going until it reaches 300,000
miles . . .

Basically the first 100,000 miles cost the poor schmuck who bought it
an arm and a leg.

The next 100,000 miles were much, much cheaper.

Or, as you put it, after only a few years "it can be entirely
functional and well maintained and still only fetch a small fraction
[like 1/40th] of the purchase price."
 
Jasper Janssen <[email protected]> writes:
>
> It is most especially not realistic to quantify the depreciation as
> purchase price divided by expected lifespan -- that is in fact much
> less realistic than writing it off all at once.


I use sum-of-digits depreciation. It's fairly simple to calculate, and
yields a nice depreciation curve which is steep at the beginning and
shallow at the end. You figure out the depreciation period
(e.g. months) and the predicted lifespan (e.g. 5 years); dividing the
latter by the former you get 60 in this case. You now calculate
1+2+...+60, which fortunately simplifies out to 60*61/2 (in the general
case, n(n+1)/2); this is 1,830. Say that the initial cost is $2,000:
divide the cost by 1,830, yielding $1.093. Now, the first month the
bike depreciates 60*$1.093, or $65.57; the second month by 59*$1.093, or
$64.49; the last month it will depreciate by 1*$1.093, or $1.09.

This more accurately tracks real depreciation.

--
Robert Uhl <http://public.xdi.org/=ruhl>
I once did a dd if=bootdisk.img of=/dev/hda. Luckily, /dev/hda had
Windows 95 and a swap partition on it. /dev/hdb was where Linux lived.
Nothing important was lost. --PD
 

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