" I actually did tests on this deliberately inducing a wobble and observing how long until wobble ceases on its own or if it wobbles at all.'
This an interesting technical discussion . Could you tell us about the bike(s) used including make size weight wheels tire type your weight and height ect. Not that I doubt any of your post. I just want to look at the test conditions.
Knowing more about what bikes have wobbled with what riders ,quality of road surface and texture ect & how they were set up on the bike would be insightful. If I had read through correctly , it appears a smaller guy with lower COG might have less chance for HSW to occur? And /or is there a trend of bikes that might have this tendency ?
I'd been blessed with thousands of miles on my bikes decades back , had not experienced a HS wobble on my old steel or aluminum bikes in any of the casual rides or centuries
These days ,of the last 7 months returned to road cycling hadn't had my Scott speedster 60 much over 40MPH period. Just not that guy anymore , I'm brittle or so says the bone density scan.
So I would not be able to comment on whether that bike has or could suffer from HS wobble. I had a Trek frame way -way back was epoxy bonded aluminum tubes aluminum fork . Forgot the model #. The fork at front axle would appear to visibly flex quite a bit from riders perspective over rough roads at speed . But that never translated to a HS wobble at the bars .
I was planning on cycling Mt baldy when in So Cal next time and the reference in a post above got my attention. I might not go fast enough these days for HSW but would like to hear more about others occurrence of this.
Size 50 disc brake gravel bike (undersized for my 5'8" height) using 35mm 700c slick tread road/urban tires. It's one of those cheap generic Asian brands ~$400 that is just a step above the quality of department store bikes. The original wheel set had rim internal width of 17mm. Switching to wider 21mm internal rim width wheelset using the same tires significantly reduced wobbling triggered by front wheel disturbance during HS descent. The whole bike still possesses significant amount of lateral flex (if I try to press the pedal sideways with my foot while I'm off the bike and and holding it upright despite the laterally stiffer wheelset.
My weight is 128 lbs. Bike empty weight is 38 lbs. I suppose that gives me low CG which makes everything more resistant to HS wobble. I can still make the bike wobble at HS but this wobble always dampens itself and ceases completely in under 2 seconds. For me it's only a matter of making the wobble less intense and ceases quicker.
Riding conditions and wobble testing is almost entirely on paved roads. Poor quality, very bumpy road though so I bought myself a gravel bike so I can put wider, more comfortable tires in it. Not all kinds of road imperfections will cause a wobble. Potholes definitely won't cause a wobble unless its big enough and you hit it while riding one-handed. But assuming you're hitting bumps with both hands on the handlebar, letting your wheel fall into gaps and cracks that run parallel to the road can definitely trigger wheel wobble. Skinny wheels are quite susceptible while wide tires can remain unaffected. Losing traction even by a small bit while swerving around something can also trigger HS wobble royally. Even hitting just a tiny patch of sand or ice while swerving can be extreme risk for HS wobble so I would probably suggest to avoid swerving at all during HS descent. Just pay good attention to the road and very carefully plan your lines so you don't have to swerve for any bumps. That's one advantage of having wider tires is you can just probably safely sail through the bumps without swerving.
With the modifications I did like moving the seat forward, replacing seatpost with no offset, shorter stem. I've almost eliminated HS wobble even if I deliberately disturb the handlebar at HS. It can still wobble badly ofc, if you disturb the handlebar strong enough for the rear wheel to lose traction. But I wouldn't advise that as you're likely to crash if you did.
Moving forward of your seat during HS descent will also make the bike stable and more wobble resistant.......BUT if you slam the brakes hard in that position, you could tumble forward and crash this is why many riders move all the way back on their seat. It's a compromise position. Less stable but less likely to crash should you need to brake hard to slow down quickly.
Obviously, some of these modifications may not agree with your bike fit and may induce discomfort. It is always a compromise.
The source of HS wobble can also be from loose QR skewers or TA's and loose / faulty headset and wheel hub bearings. Worst case is a cracked frame. If your bike is 100% free of defects, and QR skewers are tight enough, you have already eliminated a large degree of HS wobble factor.