Originally posted by Beastt
Let me say first that I hope this works. I'm not sure if the image is too big for the page or big enough to show any detail. I provided it so that I could make references to what I see. Secondly, yes.. I'm afraid I'm admitting to what a void of a life I lead in that I had, and took the time to put all of this together.
I'm not sure I buy it completely. What I see at first is Ullrich, understandably confused. Who wasn't? Armstrong seemed to be bowled over by an invisible truck. Obviously I don't know what Ullrich was thinking anymore than anyone else. Only Jan knows for sure. But it looks to me like he's fighting an internal conflict; "I'm so close. I could perhaps take the jersey right here and now. But a gentleman waits." Perhaps that's what I see because I find it hard to believe I would be thinking anything other than that if in a similar situation.
In the first frame here, you can see Ullrich pushing to catch and stay with Mayo and Armstrong before the crash.
In the second frame, Armstrong has become intimate with the road surface.
In frame 3, an understandably confused Ullrich is trying to get his bike back on line and figure out what just happened. I don't have much video of Ullrich between that point and the point just beyond where Lance slips a pedal. The camera is on Armstrong and Mayo for the most part.
Frame 4 is where Armstrong slips out of the pedal.
In frame 5 it looks like Ullrich is sitting up, though it's doubtful he knows that Armstrong has had another problem. He's still working, but hell, it's a steep climb! He certainly looks like he's not going full out.
In frames 7, 8 and 9 he doesn't have the same appearance of holding back. He looks to me very much the way he did just prior to Armstrong going down.
In frame 10 he has swung wide on the corner as Tyler Hamilton came forward.
Then notice in frame 11, (only a second or two later), he has dropped back substantially. Almost as though he felt Tyler's gestures were directed at him. (You can see his front wheel behind the rider to Tyler's right.)
A very good point was made about other riders quickly catching up to Jan after Armstrong fell. This certainly seemed to indicate that he slowed. Limerickman offered a figure of 1-minute between Hamilton and Ullrich at the point where Armstrong fell.
This caused me to go back and take another look, frame by frame. If you look at frame 12 you can see Ullrich inside the celeste-colored oval on the right edge of the image and another rider a short distance behind him denoted with a red oval. That second rider is Tyler Hamilton. I apologize for the tiny image and I know it's nearly impossible to tell anything from it but I have the full image and anyone with the video can double-check for themselves. You can even see Hamilton's open jersey and the gauze wrappings that were supporting his broken clavicle. Hamilton was mere seconds behind Ullrich and as you can see, Mayo has just remounted and is being helped by a spectator, (the spectator is in the blue shirt next to Mayo in orange). Armstrong is, at this point, behind Mayo in the frame and struggling with his chain.
This, of course, doesn't mean that Ullrich didn't slow but it would seem to indicate that the other riders had very little catching up to do to be with Ullrich and obviously, Hamilton felt that the pace being held was inappropriate.
As I said, I have my doubts. I don't think Ullrich charged ahead with everything he had, if he'd done that, he probably would not have wasted any time by bothering to look back as he is doing in frame #6, but frames 7, 8 and 9 don't seem to indicate that his paced was reduced substantially. That, coupled with obvious efforts that Christophe Moreau was putting forth at several points in order to stay with Ullrich give rise to substantial doubt that Ullrich was truly attempting to let Armstrong re-join the group. The video shows Moreau, standing and hammering, mouth-agape to stay with Jan.
(Please note that I believe I kept things in relative order here. Frames #7 and #12 should be the only ones out of chronological order. I wanted 7, 8 & 9 grouped together because I believe they all show Ullrich pressing ahead. Frame #12 was held to the end to address the specific issue of the gap between Ullrich and Hamilton at the time Armstrong fell.)
Beastt,
Just read your reply to the question about whether Ullrich slowed down at Luz or not.
The first thing to say is that by not accelerating away, Ullrich effectively slowed down.
He did not attempt to capitalize on Armstrong’s fall.
The accident (in your frames 2-3) happened directly in front of Jan Ullrich on that point of the climb.
Armstrong’s handlebar got entangled in a spectators plastic bag.
Armestrong fell and Mayo, who was following closely behind Armstrong, fell also.
This is 00.00 (zero minute, zero seconds)
In that split second – when the fall happened – Ullrich could have decided to accelerate because he remained upright on his bike.
At that point, at that split second, he decided not to accelerate.
Regardless of Hamilton’s gestures further up the road – it was at that point, in your frame 2 and frame 3, that Ullrich decided not to accelerate away when Armstrong and Mayo fell.
If you look at the video, Ullrich was riding at a set tempo prior to the crash.
His tempo never changed in frame 2 and frame 3 and if you spin the video on, you will see that his tempo actually slowed down after frames 2 and frame 3.
The camera pans to Ullrich at 38 seconds after Armstrong fell : his tempo has slowed, there is no one else in the camera shot with Ullrich.
Eurosport’s live coverage (which I taped that day) clearly shows Ullrich looking backwards to see what happened as he slowed his tempo (your frames 8 and 9).
Again, this is 38 seconds after Armstrong fell.
I don’t see Hamilton in either frame that you displayed on your message.
Nor was he in shot on the live video.
The camera then goes back to Armstrong – and his foot slips out of his pedal at 1 minute and 5 seconds after he fell.
The camera stays with Armstrong, as he regains his composure and works his way back through the group.
At one minute 35 seconds after Armstrongs fall, the camera pans to Ullrich who is
still going at a slow tempo and in this shot, there is a Fasso Bortola cyclist,
Credit Agricole rider Christophe Moreau and behind Moreau is Hamilton !
At one minute 42 seconds after Armstrongs fall, the camera pans Ullrich who has
moved to the right hand side of the road, and Hamilton is on Ullrich’s immediate
left hand side raising his hand.
I’ve re-checked the Eurosport tape and according to my timing there is a one minute 42 second time gap between Armstrong’s fall and Hamilton’s gesture in your frame 10.
This one minute 42 seconds would approximate to Jan Ullrich’s statement in Cycle Sport Magazine January 2004 where he says that Hamilton was a minute behind him when the accident happened.
If Ullrich had accelerated at the point where Armstrong had fallen, Hamilton would not have been in a position to be beside Ullrich in your frame 10 and 11.
The decision that Ullrich made in frames 2 and 3 is what is crucial to this whole debate.
Ullrich decided not to acclerate at that point, nor did he accelerate in the subsequent frames that you displayed.
On the video, you will see his tempo slowing, in the aftermath of the fall.
For one minute 42 seconds, Ullrich could have decided to accelerate – he decided not to do so.
In fact, his tempo actually slowed down.
Hamilton is not even close to Ullrich when he decided to slow his tempo.
It was only after he slowed down that Hamilton came in clear view on the video.
