Disc brakes and QRs making headlines



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Jose Rizal <_@_._> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>
> > I don't really see what there is to 'prove' here, there is nothing new about this other than the
> > realisation that the necessary and sufficient preconditions apply in this situation.
>
> "Can" apply in this situation. I never said there was anything new in the concept of threaded
> systems loosening under cyclic motion, only that it still remains to be shown that this is what
> happens in QR systems in the situation you describe. What is to be proved is whether this
> mechanism can be made to happen in QRs/disc brake systems, thereby eliminating subjective data
> from anecdotes.
>
> This mechanism is straightforward: loosening will occur if there is enough cycles of movement, or
> large enough amplitudes of movement, or both. There is no magic random factor which will affect
> this. The process of this mechanism happening, however, will cause effects which will serve as
> warnings and which are not mentioned in the bulk of your anecdotal data. Hence the doubt whether
> the anecdotal data is reliable enough.

See the thread on singletrack world, posted after James had realised that QRs can unscrew.

http://www.singletrackworld.com/forum/read.php?f=2&i=341365&t=341361#reply_341365

In case you cannot be bothered to read it all here is a summary: In the thread, on which people
posted over the course of 3 days...

14 people reported first hand front wheel loosening or front wheel loss on disk brake plus QR
equipped bikes, riding under repeated sharp braking conditions.

There were, in addition, 6 second hand reports (although one person reported seeing it happen 'many
times' to different people - his report is just counted as one of the 6 here)

Of these 20 cases, 11 were wheel loosening, and several people reported repeated loosening - eg.
every 2 weeks.

Of the 20 cases, 9 were wheel losses, resulting in face plants, usually on one of the tough classic
UK mountain descents (Iron Keld, Helvellyn, Cumberland Clough...).

Of the 20 cases, 3 resulted in serious injuries - 1 paralysis from the chest down, 1 intensive care
and 1 with a large amount of facial scarring, including loss of his left nostril! (eww!)

How many people read singletrack on those 3 days? What fraction of these use disk brakes plus QRs?
How many of these ride in the conditions that require repeated braking that will quickly loosen the
QR? Don't know what these numbers are, but it would seem reasonable that of order 1% of disk brake
plus QR release users are likely to have such problems. That's a large number of people in the
whole world!

Then there are, of course, all these people who subsequently have piped up to say that it has not
happened to them. But looked at in terms of 1% failure being quite large, the number of these happy
people unfortunately does not seem as high as one would hope.

In order for your QR to never fail you need to be in the happy position of having a skewer with
knurling, combined with fork dropouts that are neither to soft nor too hard, such that the skewer
makes little divots in the dropout. The knurls sit in the divots and make it much harder for the QR
to unscrew. It also helps if you do not ride long, steep rocky descents (which, of course, most
riders do not - perhaps no Americans ever do?). If your QR does not unscrew, because you have this
combination of a good QR and a good dropout, then, assuming you have retention lips on your dropout
you will have no problems. Hopefully this situation describes the vast majority of riders, but it
appears that little attention has been paid by the industry to make sure that this is the case.

jules
 
Jon Bond <[email protected]> wrote:
>"David Damerell" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>>Thank you, Captain Obvious. Yes, that 0.6g does assume a fairly sane placement of the rider, that
>>you aren't carrying lead weights in your panniers, etc. None of this obviates the fact that James
>>Annan's 0.6g is a sensible figure for deceleration.
>I know it was obvious, but it wasn't stated - I'm not arguing your number, I'm arguing the fact
>that you've got a specific number for anything.

This specific number can be easily determined from consideration of the angle between the ground and
a line drawn between the forward contact patch and the centre of gravity of the rider and bicycle.
--
David Damerell <[email protected]> Distortion Field!
 
[email protected] (jules) wrote:

>See the thread on singletrack world, posted after James had realised that QRs can unscrew.
>
>http://www.singletrackworld.com/forum/read.php?f=2&i=341365&t=341361#reply_341365
>
>In case you cannot be bothered to read it all here is a summary: In the thread, on which people
>posted over the course of 3 days...
>
>14 people reported first hand front wheel loosening or front wheel loss on disk brake plus QR
>equipped bikes, riding under repeated sharp braking conditions.
>
>There were, in addition, 6 second hand reports (although one person reported seeing it happen 'many
>times' to different people - his report is just counted as one of the 6 here)
>
>Of these 20 cases, 11 were wheel loosening, and several people reported repeated loosening - eg.
>every 2 weeks.
>
>Of the 20 cases, 9 were wheel losses, resulting in face plants, usually on one of the tough classic
>UK mountain descents (Iron Keld, Helvellyn, Cumberland Clough...).
>
>Of the 20 cases, 3 resulted in serious injuries - 1 paralysis from the chest down, 1 intensive care
>and 1 with a large amount of facial scarring, including loss of his left nostril! (eww!)
>
>How many people read singletrack on those 3 days? What fraction of these use disk brakes plus QRs?
>How many of these ride in the conditions that require repeated braking that will quickly loosen the
>QR? Don't know what these numbers are, but it would seem reasonable that of order 1% of disk brake
>plus QR release users are likely to have such problems. That's a large number of people in the
>whole world!
>
>Then there are, of course, all these people who subsequently have piped up to say that it has not
>happened to them. But looked at in terms of 1% failure being quite large, the number of these happy
>people unfortunately does not seem as high as one would hope.
>
>In order for your QR to never fail you need to be in the happy position of having a skewer with
>knurling, combined with fork dropouts that are neither to soft nor too hard, such that the skewer
>makes little divots in the dropout. The knurls sit in the divots and make it much harder for the QR
>to unscrew. It also helps if you do not ride long, steep rocky descents (which, of course, most
>riders do not - perhaps no Americans ever do?). If your QR does not unscrew, because you have this
>combination of a good QR and a good dropout, then, assuming you have retention lips on your dropout
>you will have no problems. Hopefully this situation describes the vast majority of riders, but it
>appears that little attention has been paid by the industry to make sure that this is the case.

Thank you for this summary, which IMO is the most cogent and convincing of anything I've read in the
various threads.

My QR (XTR) and dropouts (SID SL) appear to fall in the latter category, and accordingly I still
ride my bike about 2-3 times a week (INCLUDING long steep rocky descents :) with little additional
concern than before, other than inevitable and unavoidable frequent attention to the QR. So far, so
good. Should last until my next bike investment in about 2 years.

--dt
 
"David Damerell" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:w2b*[email protected]...
> Jon Bond <[email protected]> wrote:
> >"David Damerell" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> >>Thank you, Captain Obvious. Yes, that 0.6g does assume a fairly sane placement of the rider,
> >>that you aren't carrying lead weights in your panniers, etc. None of this obviates the fact that
> >>James Annan's 0.6g is
a
> >>sensible figure for deceleration.
> >I know it was obvious, but it wasn't stated - I'm not arguing your
number,
> >I'm arguing the fact that you've got a specific number for anything.
>
> This specific number can be easily determined from consideration of the angle between the ground
> and a line drawn between the forward contact patch and the centre of gravity of the rider and
> bicycle.
> --
> David Damerell <[email protected]> Distortion Field!

Which I'm saying makes far too many assumptions (rider size, mass distribution, frame geometry and
mass distribution, etc. etc.) to not note that it is a number within the realm of possibilitiy, but
not "the point at which a single will lift the back wheel." That said, its still semantics, so its
no big deal ;)

Jon Bond
 
jules:

> Jose Rizal <_@_._> wrote in message
> news:<[email protected]>...
> >
> > > I don't really see what there is to 'prove' here, there is nothing new about this other than
> > > the realisation that the necessary and sufficient preconditions apply in this situation.
> >
> > "Can" apply in this situation. I never said there was anything new in the concept of threaded
> > systems loosening under cyclic motion, only that it still remains to be shown that this is what
> > happens in QR systems in the situation you describe. What is to be proved is whether this
> > mechanism can be made to happen in QRs/disc brake systems, thereby eliminating subjective data
> > from anecdotes.
> >
> > This mechanism is straightforward: loosening will occur if there is enough cycles of movement,
> > or large enough amplitudes of movement, or both. There is no magic random factor which will
> > affect this. The process of this mechanism happening, however, will cause effects which will
> > serve as warnings and which are not mentioned in the bulk of your anecdotal data. Hence the
> > doubt whether the anecdotal data is reliable enough.
>
>
> See the thread on singletrack world, posted after James had realised that QRs can unscrew.
>
> http://www.singletrackworld.com/forum/read.php?f=2&i=341365&t=341361#reply_341365
>
> In case you cannot be bothered to read it all here is a summary: In the thread, on which people
> posted over the course of 3 days...
>
> 14 people reported first hand front wheel loosening or front wheel loss on disk brake plus QR
> equipped bikes, riding under repeated sharp braking conditions.
>
> There were, in addition, 6 second hand reports (although one person reported seeing it happen
> 'many times' to different people - his report is just counted as one of the 6 here)
>
> Of these 20 cases, 11 were wheel loosening, and several people reported repeated loosening - eg.
> every 2 weeks.

You haven't mentioned anything here which disputes what I've stated above. How tight were the QRs
initially? How long have they been riding the QRs that way before the race? Stating the frequency of
QR loosening in terms of time is faulty at best - what does "every 2 weeks" mean in terms of cyclic
values? The point is that anecdotal statements lack precision and objectivity.

> How many of these ride in the conditions that require repeated braking that will quickly loosen
> the QR? Don't know what these numbers are, but it would seem reasonable that of order 1% of disk
> brake plus QR release users are likely to have such problems. That's a large number of people in
> the whole world!

This is a speculative and contradictory statement which exemplifies the anecdotal evidence. If you
don't know what the numbers are, how did you come up with 1%?
 
Jose Rizal wrote:

> You haven't mentioned anything here which disputes what I've stated above. How tight were the QRs
> initially? How long have they been riding the QRs that way before the race? Stating the frequency
> of QR loosening in terms of time is faulty at best - what does "every 2 weeks" mean in terms of
> cyclic values? The point is that anecdotal statements lack precision and objectivity.

I repeat the question I posed a few days ago.

If you are going to suggest 'operator error', then can you come up with any plausible 'error' that
would lead to unscrewing of the QR as has been so frequently observed?

I'm not here talking about the few cases of complete wheel loss, where even a detailed forensic
examination may not be able to prove beyond any possible doubt that the QR was correctly used in
that instance, but the much larger number of people reporting loosening of skewere, many of whom
have actually observed the lever rotation (eg when installed on the LHS). What do you think they can
have done wrong?

James
 
Jose Rizal <_@_._> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> jules:
>
> > Jose Rizal <_@_._> wrote in message
> > news:<[email protected]>...
> > >
> You haven't mentioned anything here which disputes what I've stated above. How tight were the QRs
> initially? How long have they been riding the QRs that way before the race? Stating the frequency
> of QR loosening in terms of time is faulty at best - what does "every 2 weeks" mean in terms of
> cyclic values? The point is that anecdotal statements lack precision and objectivity.

No, a wheel loosening is a wheel loosening. There is nothing either imprecise or
unobjective about it.

If you look on the CPSC website and see why things get recalled, sometimes there have been a few
injuries, maybe a broken tooth or a bruised rib, but other times it's things like ... this item
could theoretically break, no injuries have been reported ... but they do the recall anyway once
they realise that the theoretical problem exists. It seems to me that this particular failure is
already way over the statistics required for a recall to be demanded. The longer the manufacturers
sit wringing their hands the worse the problem will get - it is only really in the last year or so
that disk brake equipped QR forks have started to flood onto the market.

Just because you don't know how many cycles it takes to loosen the QR (and you'd have to measure
every possible combination of fork and brake and QR because each on is going to be different)
doesn't mean that the design isn't demonstrably poor. The failure clearly happens under riding
conditions that manufacturers would think of as normal. That's enough.

The difficult thing, that it might be more constructive to start considering, is how to solve the
problem. Apart from the obvious solution of a bolt through axle it's not so easy.

> > How many of these ride in the conditions that require repeated braking that will quickly loosen
> > the QR? Don't know what these numbers are, but it would seem reasonable that of order 1% of disk
> > brake plus QR release users are likely to have such problems. That's a large number of people in
> > the whole world!
>
> This is a speculative and contradictory statement which exemplifies the anecdotal evidence. If you
> don't know what the numbers are, how did you come up with 1%?

Yawn - I really thought you might be capable of working this out for yourself - as I stated, 1% is
only an order of magnitude estimate.

How many read the post - I would have thought it was of order 300 people, but let's say it was 1000.

15 failures in 1000 = 1.5%

OK, so not all these 1000 have disk brakes (in fact it's probably considerably less than half), but
then again the people on this site are also keen MTB-ers, so are therefore more likely to experience
the failure than those who just keep their bikes locked up in the garage. Then again those keen
people are the ones more likely to have disk brakes. My first estimate is that these two effects
roughly cancel each other out (divide the percentage by the fraction using disk brakes, and multiply
by the fraction of disk plus QR equipped bikes not used).

That's how I got my OM(1%). Yes, if 5000 people read the post and they all had disk brakes, but
90% of QR+disk forks are never ridden then the failure rate is only 0.03% - but those number seem
way out to
me... So I conclude it's a substantial number, and could easily be significantly higher than 1%. If
I'd said 0.1-10% would that have made you happier?

jules
 
On 25 May 2003 18:44:32 -0700, [email protected] (jules) wrote:

>Yawn - I really thought you might be capable of working this out for yourself - as I stated, 1% is
>only an order of magnitude estimate.

How the hell can you expect someone to 'work out for himself' which assumptions and estimates *you*
used in multiplying together a particular number?

Jasper
 
Jasper Janssen <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:<[email protected]>...
> On 25 May 2003 18:44:32 -0700, [email protected] (jules) wrote:
>
> >Yawn - I really thought you might be capable of working this out for yourself - as I stated, 1%
> >is only an order of magnitude estimate.
>
> How the hell can you expect someone to 'work out for himself' which assumptions and estimates
> *you* used in multiplying together a particular number?
>
> Jasper

I expected him to be able to make reasonable assumptions and work out a number for himself.

jules
 
On 26 May 2003 20:44:39 -0700, [email protected] (jules) wrote:

>I expected him to be able to make reasonable assumptions and work out a number for himself.

Indeed, but that number would not necessarily match, and if you want to have a decent debate, you
need to know *why*. Ie, which assumption/estimate did the two of you make a different one of.

Jasper
 
jules wrote:
> it is only really in the last year or so that disk brake equipped QR forks have started to flood
> onto the market.
>

???

you don't follow the world of mountain biking then?

Marc
-------------------------------------------
http://aurora.homedns.org
 
Jon Bond <[email protected]> wrote:
>"David Damerell" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>>This specific number can be easily determined from consideration of the angle between the ground
>>and a line drawn between the forward contact patch and the centre of gravity of the rider and
>>bicycle.
>Which I'm saying makes far too many assumptions (rider size, mass distribution, frame geometry and
>mass distribution, etc. etc.)

Bunk. Bigger riders tend to have bigger bikes, but with much the same angle; and mass distribution
cannot be greatly improved from the standard ****-on-saddle position. Frame geometry makes little
difference here, and frame mass is clearly almost irrelevant.

It ought to be evident that bicycles with well-adjusted brakes do not have radically different
maximum braking.
--
David Damerell <[email protected]> Distortion Field!
 
jules:

> Jose Rizal <_@_._> wrote in message
> news:<[email protected]>...
> > jules:
> >
> > > Jose Rizal <_@_._> wrote in message
> > > news:<[email protected]>...
> > > >
> > You haven't mentioned anything here which disputes what I've stated above. How tight were the
> > QRs initially? How long have they been riding the QRs that way before the race? Stating the
> > frequency of QR loosening in terms of time is faulty at best - what does "every 2 weeks" mean in
> > terms of cyclic values? The point is that anecdotal statements lack precision and objectivity.
>
> No, a wheel loosening is a wheel loosening. There is nothing either imprecise or unobjective
> about it.

>
> If you look on the CPSC website and see why things get recalled, sometimes there have been a few
> injuries, maybe a broken tooth or a bruised rib, but other times it's things like ... this item
> could theoretically break, no injuries have been reported ... but they do the recall anyway once
> they realise that the theoretical problem exists. It seems to me that this particular failure is
> already way over the statistics required for a recall to be demanded. The longer the manufacturers
> sit wringing their hands the worse the problem will get - it is only really in the last year or so
> that disk brake equipped QR forks have started to flood onto the market.

Another topic altogether - you're trying to squirm out of the issues.
>
> Just because you don't know how many cycles it takes to loosen the QR (and you'd have to measure
> every possible combination of fork and brake and QR because each on is going to be different)
> doesn't mean that the design isn't demonstrably poor. The failure clearly happens under riding
> conditions that manufacturers would think of as normal. That's enough.

No, the mechanism proposed of QRs loosening is just that. What causes it is still to be proven, and
is far from "clear".
>
> The difficult thing, that it might be more constructive to start considering, is how to solve the
> problem. Apart from the obvious solution of a bolt through axle it's not so easy.

You cannot solve the problem until you know what the cause is. You clearly don't, and neither
does anyone.

> > > How many of these ride in the conditions that require repeated braking that will quickly
> > > loosen the QR? Don't know what these numbers are, but it would seem reasonable that of order
> > > 1% of disk brake plus QR release users are likely to have such problems. That's a large number
> > > of people in the whole world!
> >
> > This is a speculative and contradictory statement which exemplifies the anecdotal evidence. If
> > you don't know what the numbers are, how did you come up with 1%?
>
> Yawn - I really thought you might be capable of working this out for yourself - as I stated, 1% is
> only an order of magnitude estimate.
>
> How many read the post - I would have thought it was of order 300 people, but let's say it
> was 1000.
>
> 15 failures in 1000 = 1.5%
>
> OK, so not all these 1000 have disk brakes (in fact it's probably considerably less than half),
> but then again the people on this site are also keen MTB-ers, so are therefore more likely to
> experience the failure than those who just keep their bikes locked up in the garage. Then again
> those keen people are the ones more likely to have disk brakes. My first estimate is that these
> two effects roughly cancel each other out (divide the percentage by the fraction using disk
> brakes, and multiply by the fraction of disk plus QR equipped bikes not used).
>
> That's how I got my OM(1%). Yes, if 5000 people read the post and they all had disk brakes, but
> 90% of QR+disk forks are never ridden then the failure rate is only 0.03% - but those number seem
> way out to
> me... So I conclude it's a substantial number, and could easily be significantly higher than 1%.
> If I'd said 0.1-10% would that have made you happier?
>

All of these is still speculation, no matter how many numbers you pull out of thin air. Words such
as "likely", "probably", and "estimate" (which more likely is a guess) do not improve your argument.

Estimating "an order of magnitude" implies you accept being an order of magnitude off. That's the
same as being useless.
 
jules:

> Jasper Janssen <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:<[email protected]>...
> > On 25 May 2003 18:44:32 -0700, [email protected] (jules) wrote:
> >
> > >Yawn - I really thought you might be capable of working this out for yourself - as I stated, 1%
> > >is only an order of magnitude estimate.
> >
> > How the hell can you expect someone to 'work out for himself' which assumptions and estimates
> > *you* used in multiplying together a particular number?
> >
> > Jasper
>
> I expected him to be able to make reasonable assumptions and work out a number for himself.
>

Your definiton of "reasonable" is not reasonable. You're guessing numbers, dodging issues by making
assumptions without evidence, and expect to be taken as "reasonable". You fool no one.
 
Jasper Janssen:

> On 26 May 2003 20:44:39 -0700, [email protected] (jules) wrote:
>
> >I expected him to be able to make reasonable assumptions and work out a number for himself.
>
> Indeed, but that number would not necessarily match, and if you want to have a decent debate, you
> need to know *why*. Ie, which assumption/estimate did the two of you make a different one of.
>
> Jasper

And an "order of magnitude" estimate = wild guess.
 
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