A first organised long-distance event gives casual riders a concrete goal. For a first sportive, I’d give distance comfort priority over chasing a target speed; the event already supplies an objective, and there is no need to turn every ride into a pace test.
To me, those are separate aims: choosing an event you feel ready to cover and choosing a number you hope to see. I’d rather set expectations around a steady day than treat the start line as a chance to prove anything. For a first event, which would you make the priority, feeling ready to cover the distance or aiming for a particular pace?
Distance comfort first. For a first sportive, I’d rather feel ready to cover it at a sustainable effort; pace can be something I notice, not a number I have to defend. Route, wind and stops can make a planned average feel arbitrary anyway. Getting to the finish with enough left to enjoy the ride is a better first measure for me.