DougC wrote:
>
> I have read in one print magazine that the cause of obesity in most
> first-world countries is not usually lack of exercise, but an
> imbalanced diet. Many of the persons studied could afford a healthier
> diet, they just made poor choices for their food intake.
> ~
This just arrived in the morning's e-mail from the National Bureau of
Economic Research
http://papers.nber.org/papers/w12954 by
Sara Bleich, David Cutler, Christopher Murray, and Alyce Adams
The conclusions of this paper are surprising and startling
"Results
show that rising obesity is primarily the result of consuming more
calories."
"increased caloric intake accounted for 93 percent of the change in adult
obesity from1990 to 2001 (the remainder is attributable to reduced energy
expenditure). The increase in caloric intake appears to be driven by
technological innovations, such as lower food prices and the ease with which
businesses can enter the marketplace, as well as changing sociodemographic
characteristics such as increased labor force participation and increased
urbanization.
Across the developed world, average food prices fell by 12 percent from 1980
to 2002, which the authors associate with a corresponding higher caloric
intake of approximately 38 calories. A 10 percent increase in female labor
force participation was associated with an increase of approximately 70
calories. A 10 percent increase in urbanization was associated with an
increase of approximately 113 calories.
The authors point out that a very small net increase in calories may lead to
a large increase in obesity, and they predict expected changes in weight
based on the associations they observe between caloric supply and the
drivers of increased consumption. For example, they show that increasing
food prices by 12 percent would be associated with a decrease of 1.5
kilograms (3.4 pounds) for the average 65-kilogram (143-pound) person.
Similarly, they show that decreasing urbanization by 5 percent would be
associated with a decrease of 2.2 kilograms (5 pounds) for the average
65-kilogram person."
This study is also subject to the usual limitations of causal inference.
--
Mike Kruger
Go ahead, threaten me like you have the American people for so long!
You're part of a dying breed, Hapsburg, like people who can name all
fifty states! The truth hurts, doesn't it, Hapsburg? Oh sure, maybe not
as much as landing on a bicycle with the seat missing, but it hurts!
[Naked Gun 2-1/2]