Thanks for all the posts on this thread. I posted it as I got tired of reading all danish forums/newspaper sites. Its nice with "international" views. You really have some interesting and well argumented views on this case. I hope the debate continues.
My view is:
I am very convinced the process is gonna take much longer than Rasmussen expects.
Rabobank said that Rasmussen had confirmed that he had lied to them about his whereabouts. This matter will be hard to settle, as it seems Rasmussen will never admit having saying so (if he have ever said it). Rabobank on the other hand will stick to their version. So I think we can forget all about that part of the story. Its a dead end.
It is clear that Rasmussen was not thrown out directly because of his warnings. Of course they did their part, clearly encouraging the tour directors, but it was the violation of internal team rules that got him kicked out.
So actually it is quite simple. The whole case will be build on Rasmussens ability to prove that he has not lied, hence showing court some kind of hard evidence that confirm that his whereabouts at the time equals his statements.
On the other hand, Rabobank might have to come forward with more evidence than the public already knows of. A statement by Cassani will not rock the courtroom. By the way, it could be interesting to see if Cassani, at court under oath, would confirm 100% that it was Rasmussen he saw that day.
The case will not concern doping directly, just administrative issues. But Rasmussens negative doping tests might influence a jury. On the other hand the jury might feel that it is hard to believe he is "clean" when looking at the warnings and missed availability for doping tests.
It is almost impossible to guess the outcome of this case, but I think that Rasmussens unwilingsness to say anything about the evidence is under strict control from his advisers. My guess is that they are working very hard to find any papers in Mexico and Italy that can strengthen his case. No matter if he was in Italy or not. Rabobank will surely try to find papers showing his entry/exit from Italy at that time. Also they will try to find more witnesses who saw Rasmussen i Italy.
Unless Rabobank directly with hard evidence can prove he has been in Italy at that time, I think Rasmussen will come out strongest. A statement from Cassani will not be enough to win the case.
