GC After Stage 7 -- Handicapping the Field

[wimpyVO2]

GC after Stage 7

1 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile
4 Patrik Sinkewitz (Ger) T-Mobile
5 Marcus Fothen (Ger) Gerolsteiner
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile

7 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto

9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank
10 David Zabriskie (USA) Team CSC
11 Matthias Kessler (Ger) T-Mobile

12 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2R-Prevoyance
13 Paolo Savoldelli (Ita) Discovery Channel
14 Eddy Mazzoleni (Ita) T-Mobile
15 Sebastian Lang (Ger) Gerolsteiner
16 Carlos Sastre (Spa) Team CSC
17 George Hincapie (USA) Discovery Channel
18 Oscar Pereiro (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears

Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
the real contenders are.

Landis
Rogers
Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
Kloden
Karpets
Evans
Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
Savoldelli
Sastre
Hincapie
Pereiro

Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?

I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
Hincapie in the mountains... I didn't think it was going to be this
soon. Interesting to see if Johan makes Paolo the protected one and
George becomes super-domestique once again...

 

[Jeff Jones]

wimpyVO2 wrote:

>
> Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
> the real contenders are.
>
> Landis
> Rogers
> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
> Kloden
> Karpets
> Evans
> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
> Savoldelli
> Sastre
> Hincapie
> Pereiro
>
> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>
Er, Gonchar?

2004 Giro final GC

1 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Saeco
88.40.43
2 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) De Nardi
2.02
3 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco
2.05

(http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/giro04/?id=results/stage20)

He's not the world's greatest climber, but he is consistent at limiting
his losses in the mountains. He might have done better in this year's
Giro (where he also had the pink) had he not crashed badly.

Even without Jan and Sevilla, T-Mobile has a pretty good team for this
Tour.

Jeff

 

[B. Lafferty]

"Jeff Jones" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> wimpyVO2 wrote:
>
>>
>> Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
>> the real contenders are.
>>
>> Landis
>> Rogers
>> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
>> Kloden
>> Karpets
>> Evans
>> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
>> Savoldelli
>> Sastre
>> Hincapie
>> Pereiro
>>
>> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>>
> Er, Gonchar?
>
> 2004 Giro final GC
>
> 1 Damiano Cunego (Ita) Saeco
> 88.40.43
> 2 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) De Nardi
> 2.02
> 3 Gilberto Simoni (Ita) Saeco
> 2.05
>
> (http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2004/giro04/?id=results/stage20)
>
> He's not the world's greatest climber, but he is consistent at limiting
> his losses in the mountains. He might have done better in this year's
> Giro (where he also had the pink) had he not crashed badly.
>
> Even without Jan and Sevilla, T-Mobile has a pretty good team for this
> Tour.
>
> Jeff
>
It's been a while since we've seen someone exhibiting such pure joy on the
podium in the Tour. In as much as this Tour isn't overly difficult in the
mountains, he may have a shot at the overall.

 

[Scoot]

B. Lafferty wrote:
> It's been a while since we've seen someone exhibiting such pure joy on the
> podium in the Tour. In as much as this Tour isn't overly difficult in the
> mountains, he may have a shot at the overall.

It was nice to seeing someone doing the "Dance Of Joy" on the podium.

Scoot
SDG

 

[Kyle Legate]

wimpyVO2 wrote:
>
> Landis
> Rogers
> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
> Kloden
> Karpets
> Evans
> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
> Savoldelli
> Sastre
> Hincapie
> Pereiro
>
> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>
David Millar.

 

[Simon Brooke]

in message <[email protected]>,
wimpyVO2 ('[email protected]') wrote:

> Who can climb in the mountains among this group? That will tell us who
> the real contenders are.
>
> Landis
> Rogers
> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
> Kloden
> Karpets
> Evans
> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
> Savoldelli
> Sastre
> Hincapie
> Pereiro
>
> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>
> I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
> Hincapie in the mountains...

How Hincapie will compare to others in the mountains I don't know, but
Savoldelli could not stay with the likes of Simeoni and Sastre back in
May.

The real contenders look to me at this stage to be

* Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
* Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
* Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
climb);
* Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
* Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on him
or on Rasmussen?);
* Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);
* Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
and whose team will concentrate on him).

I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
who post to this group; but I also think that (depending on what happens
to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an all-European podium.

--
[email protected] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; Semper in faecibus sumus, sole profundum variat.

 

[Sandy]

Kyle Legate a écrit :
> wimpyVO2 wrote:
>>
>> Landis
>> Rogers
>> Sinkewitz (young climber with promising future)
>> Kloden
>> Karpets
>> Evans
>> Menchov (winner of Vuelta in the Clean Division)
>> Savoldelli
>> Sastre
>> Hincapie
>> Pereiro
>>
>> Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>>
> David Millar.
He's not for Paris, but Biarritz.

 

[Carl Sundquist]

"Simon Brooke" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
> who post to this group

Rbr has nothing on xenophobia/chauvinism compared to rec.motorcycles.racing.
Check out Mark N.

 

[Ryan Cousineau]

In article <[email protected]>,
Simon Brooke <[email protected]> wrote:

> in message <[email protected]>,
> wimpyVO2 ('[email protected]') wrote:

> > Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
> >
> > I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
> > Hincapie in the mountains...
>
> How Hincapie will compare to others in the mountains I don't know, but
> Savoldelli could not stay with the likes of Simeoni and Sastre back in
> May.

Hincapie won the queen stage last year:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515

The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
time, and make time on guys like Landis.

> The real contenders look to me at this stage to be
>
> * Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
> * Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
> * Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
> climb);

Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?

> * Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
> * Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on him
> or on Rasmussen?);
> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);

What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.

Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the mountains?
There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty of guns and
radios, that's very unlikely.

> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
> and whose team will concentrate on him).

Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!

> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
> who post to this group; but I also think that (depending on what happens
> to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an all-European podium.

We all choose our favourites for different reasons, I guess.

The simple formula now is this: the winner has to be either a great
climber who can limit losses in the TT, or a great TTist who can survive
the mountains (the Indurain model).

As a first order cut, you can probably eliminate any climbers outside of
the top-20 on GC now. They're too far back. That leaves you with riders
who can climb, but who also are within about 3 minutes of the leader.

Can Gonchar climb? Well, he has two really good GC placings at the Giro:

http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tmoteam/en/team/team2005/riders/template
Id=renderInternalPage/contentID=77214/id=9158.html

As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
aspirations.

He's a TT specialist, and if he doesn't lose at least two minutes in the
mountains to Klodi and Floyd, I'll give up the Millar Line (I'll have
to; I'd be too busy watching the spectacle of Gonchar holding the
yellow). I think the real number will be substantially larger than 2
minutes.

Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.

Thursday's stage goes over Tourmalet and then four Cat1 climbs. It's not
technically a mountaintop finish, as the final climb is 2 km from the
finish, and the road descends 30 m in those 2 km. In other words, it's a
virtual mountaintop finish.

We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
next TT.

That's all you need,

--
Ryan Cousineau [email protected] http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

 

[B. Lafferty]

"Ryan Cousineau" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> In article <[email protected]>,
> Simon Brooke <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> in message <[email protected]>,
>> wimpyVO2 ('[email protected]') wrote:
>
>> > Anybody else belong on the short list for Paris?
>> >
>> > I said in an earlier post that Savoldelli was going to overtake
>> > Hincapie in the mountains...
>>
>> How Hincapie will compare to others in the mountains I don't know, but
>> Savoldelli could not stay with the likes of Simeoni and Sastre back in
>> May.
>
> Hincapie won the queen stage last year:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515
>
> The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
> time, and make time on guys like Landis.
>
>> The real contenders look to me at this stage to be
>>
>> * Kloden (TMo looking incredibly strong);
>> * Gonchar (incumbent advantage, took 2nd behind Cunego in 2004 Giro);
>> * Landis (would have done better today but for the puncture, and can
>> climb);
>
> Kloden is, I agree, underrated. Landis has to be a--if not
> THE--favourite. Is Gonchar more than a TT specialist?
>
>> * Sastre (fine as an individual, but the team have taken a beating);
>> * Menchov (again, fine as an individual, but will Rabobank focus on him
>> or on Rasmussen?);
>> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
>> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);
>
> What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
> Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
> don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
> the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
> Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.
>
> Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the mountains?
> There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty of guns and
> radios, that's very unlikely.
>
>> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
>> and whose team will concentrate on him).
>
> Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
> the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!
>
>> I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
>> the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
>> who post to this group; but I also think that (depending on what happens
>> to Landis) we're genuinely quite likely to see an all-European podium.
>
> We all choose our favourites for different reasons, I guess.
>
> The simple formula now is this: the winner has to be either a great
> climber who can limit losses in the TT, or a great TTist who can survive
> the mountains (the Indurain model).
>
> As a first order cut, you can probably eliminate any climbers outside of
> the top-20 on GC now. They're too far back. That leaves you with riders
> who can climb, but who also are within about 3 minutes of the leader.
>
> Can Gonchar climb? Well, he has two really good GC placings at the Giro:
>
> http://www.t-mobile-team.com/cms/tmoteam/en/team/team2005/riders/template
> Id=renderInternalPage/contentID=77214/id=9158.html
>
> As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
> aspirations.
>
> He's a TT specialist, and if he doesn't lose at least two minutes in the
> mountains to Klodi and Floyd, I'll give up the Millar Line (I'll have
> to; I'd be too busy watching the spectacle of Gonchar holding the
> yellow). I think the real number will be substantially larger than 2
> minutes.
>
> Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
> and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.
>
> Thursday's stage goes over Tourmalet and then four Cat1 climbs. It's not
> technically a mountaintop finish, as the final climb is 2 km from the
> finish, and the road descends 30 m in those 2 km. In other words, it's a
> virtual mountaintop finish.
>
> We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
> see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
> Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
> next TT.
>
> That's all you need,
>
> --
> Ryan Cousineau [email protected] http://www.wiredcola.com/
> "I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
> to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos

The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll be
there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper. I would
look for one or more of the climbers with the ability to accelerate try to
get away there. Depending on who gets away, they may take some time by the
final ascent. Cunego is very much an unknown quantity right now. He's had
a nice quiet race. It should be a fun day for all.

 

[Howard Kveck]

In article <OqWrg.331255$5Z.131141@dukeread02>, "Carl Sundquist" <[email protected]>
wrote:

> "Simon Brooke" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]...
> >
> > I'll confess I'd /like/ to see an all-European podium, if only to wipe
> > the grins off some of the smug transatlantic xenophobes and chauvinists
> > who post to this group
>
> Rbr has nothing on xenophobia/chauvinism compared to rec.motorcycles.racing.
> Check out Mark N.

Try "long-winded xenophobe." And he always finds a way to make it almost seem
reasonable.

--
tanx,
Howard

Never take a tenant with a monkey.

remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?

 

[Bounty Bob]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:
> In article <[email protected]>,
> Simon Brooke <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> in message <[email protected]>,
>> wimpyVO2 ('[email protected]') wrote:
>> * Rasmussen (temperamental and fragile, but on his day an awesome
>> climber - but, again, will Rabonbank commit to him?);

> What is Rasmussen doing on a list of GC hopefuls? He lost 6:30 to
> Gonchar, 5:30 to Landis, and some time to every other real hopeful. I
> don't know Menchov well (won a Vuelta, no?), but I have to believe that
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
> the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
> Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.

> Do you really believe Rasmussen can find 10-12 minutes in the mountains?
> There's precedent, but against a motivated pack with plenty of guns and
> radios, that's very unlikely.

>> * Simoni (five minutes adrift on GC but a formidable climber who can TT
>> and whose team will concentrate on him).

> Yes but, and I realize this is the post Lance+Disco dominance era, and
> the old rules don't always apply, but FIVE MINUTES DOWN ON GC!

I agree with this, its the numbers of riders that must count
against a real climber who loses heaps in the time trial.
Just look at all the guys who can climb ok who
rode 1:03's in the timetrial. A guy losing 5 minutes
in both time trials has to take 10 minutes out of every
single one of them!

 

[Raptor]

The homer line:

We've never seen Georgie ride the TdF when he didn't have to work for
Lance. He might have climbing chops he only hinted at with last year's
stage win.

Z spent his June training on the canyons of Utah. This explains his TT
slide, and could've worked some magic on his climbing form.

Levi's setting himself up for a Tyler-esque escape later. Either that or
a successful two-man break with Horner.

Floyd is the soft-spoken Man.

I'm no xenophobe, so I'll be watching avidly regardless of who's on top.
I'm just disappointed Z let me down. He owed me a victory because, well,
because I live in the same town as he does.

--
Lynn Wallace http://www.xmission.com/~lawall
I have nothing but contempt and anger for those who betray the
trust by exposing the name of our sources. They are, in my view,
the most insidious of traitors."
George H.W. Bush, April 16, 1999,

 

[Donald Munro]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:

> Hincapie won the queen stage last year:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515
>
> The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
> time, and make time on guys like Landis.

He won't be allowed to go away in a break again this year. He was way down
on GC last year when he won that stage so no one chased him down.

> Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
> and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.

I'd add Cadel Evans to that list.

 

[Donald Munro]

Ryan Cousineau wrote:

> Hincapie won the queen stage last year:
>
> http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2005/tour05/?id=results/tour0515
>
> The question is whether he can do that again and again, and not lose
> time, and make time on guys like Landis.

He won't be allowed to go away in a break again this year. He was way down
on GC last year when he won that stage so no one chased him down.

> Looking down the short list, I'd say Landis, Klodi, Menchov, Savoldelli,
> and Honcapie. Sastre? I dunno.

I'd add Cadel Evans to that list.

 

[Bob Martin]

in 512523 20060709 003055 Ryan Cousineau <[email protected]> wrote:

>As we all know, GC palmares at the Giro are the graveyard of tour
>aspirations.
>

Unless your name is Indurain.

>We'll know Thursday who has the good stuff. I'm bad at predictions, but
>see nothing wrong with guessing that Landis is a better climber than
>Gonchar, and a good enough climber to hold off everyone else until the
>next TT.

I've been trying to think of a good performance in the mountains by Landis,
but I can't. I do remember him failing badly on the first big climb in the Vuelta
a couple of years ago. What is his reputation as a climber based on?

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

Ryan Cousineau schreef:
> Rabobank now has two main projects: let Chicken do what he does and take
> the spots (his big job in the second TT will be finishing inside the
> Hors Delai time), and get Menchov on the box.

And Freire in green.


--
E. Dronkert

 

[Ewoud Dronkert]

B. Lafferty schreef:
> The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
> listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll be
> there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper.

http://www.salite.ch/portillo.htm


--
E. Dronkert

 

[B. Lafferty]

"Ewoud Dronkert" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> B. Lafferty schreef:
>> The Col du Portillon has a steep section about 3km from the top. It's
>> listed at 8.2% but a friend of mine who has ridden it many times (he'll
>> be there Thursday as his in-laws live 2km away) claims it's steeper.
>
> http://www.salite.ch/portillo.htm
>
>
> --
> E. Dronkert

Thanks. I'll forward the link to him.

 

[Steven L. Sheffield]

On 7/8/06 10:24 PM, in article [email protected], "Raptor"
<[email protected]> wrote:

> The homer line:
>
> We've never seen Georgie ride the TdF when he didn't have to work for
> Lance. He might have climbing chops he only hinted at with last year's
> stage win.


Lance rode the 1997 and 1998 Tours with Georgie?



> Z spent his June training on the canyons of Utah. This explains his TT
> slide, and could've worked some magic on his climbing form.


And doing some of the local training crits at RMR and DMV.