in article [email hidden], William Morse at
[email hidden] wrote on 1/2/04 12:34 PM:
Quoted message said:But we do get non-contingent results. And in evolution we have had experiments repeated. On three
continents we have had mammals evolve in the presence of the potential food resource of anthills.
The result is spiny anteaters, pangolins, and south american anteaters. They are totally
unrelated, but share numerous features in common. Now they are not identical, because evolution
_is_ contingent. But they are similar, because evolution is also statistical - even with the
confounding factors there is enough equivalent comparison (Fred is 22, Joe is 20, both turned as
the tiger started its charge, often enough that differential speed alone made a difference in
survival) to give evolution some typical directions. These directions represent possible niches -
large size and low reproductive rate, small size and high reproductive rate: speed, armor:
camouflage, toxicity and bright colors: etc. So we cannot talk about an overall direction for
evolution, but we can make predictions despite contingency.
I have no problem with non-contingent evolution. In fact I probably have one of the more extreme
views on this. I believe evolution is very predictable and has a direction. From what I understand
you are talking about traits I am talking about genes as in discrete sequences of DNA and there
change infrequency in response to selection.
--
Phillip Smith phills@(buggger).co.nz replace bugger with ihug applied-evolution.co.nzapplied-evolution.co.nzOpen ↗
"he who is smeared with blubber has the kindest heart" -- a Greenland Eskimo adage