Originally posted by Guest
Hi.
For people who frequently ride on road.. is it only a matter of time before you get hit?
I'm always thinking about it when I'm on the road, and just pray it never happens to me.. had a close call the other day.
Who here frequently rides on the road and has never been hit, and who has been hit.
Share your stories please.
Mathematically, it’s a question of probabilities.
P = 1- (1-p)**n where
P = probability of being hit over n rides, p = probability of being hit during a ride, n = number of rides.
The 1-p term is actually the odds of not being hit in a given ride. The probability of not being hit over some number of rides is the product of the probabilities of all the rides. Since we assume it to be the same for each ride, the (1-p) can be raised to the nth power. The result is the probability of not being hit over n rides. 1-(1-p)**n is therefore the probability of being hit over n rides.
For example, if the odds are 1/1000000 of being hit in any given ride and the number of rides one takes is 10,000, the odds of being hit sometime during the 10,000 rides are roughly 1%.
A better expression might be to substitute the rate of accidents per mile (kilometer) for p and the number of miles (kilometers) ridden for n. In the case of the 24 deaths per billion kilometers (from Austrailia?), that works out to be 0.12% over 50,000 kilometers.
Both of these cases are hypothetical. I searched the net for some statistics but I didn't find any data on per ride or per mile death rates. Of the data I did find, the UK seems to be up on this issue more so than the US. From the equations one could conclude that it requires a great amount of riding to present any serious risk.
Comparing these rates to the probability of dying of heart disease from sitting on my butt, I'll be cycling, thank-you.
I’ve been hit twice. The first time the car pulled across my path and stopped. I didn’t even have time to brake. The second time a car turned into a gas station and hit me from the side. Both bikes were ruined and I was left limping. The insurance companies paid for the doctors and the purchase price of the bikes. In retrospect, I think what the insurance agent wanted most was my signature on a release form. Next time that’s going to cost them.