Giro 2009 : Stage 6 - Thursday, May 14: Bressanone/Brixen - Mayrhofen (Aut), 248km

Stage 6 - Thursday, May 14: Bressanone/Brixen - Mayrhofen (Aut), 248km

 

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Break will take this one I think. Lots of people have lost a lot of time and will be allowed to go away. No change in the GC.

 

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Yeah it's a hard one. I think there will be a small group of about 60 riders and Cav and Pettachi will be there and teams like Katusha and Columbia with Milram will control the peloton to bring home a sprint! Considering the lack of success Cav has had thus far, I see Columbia working their arse off today.

 

If a break was to get away I've narrowed the teams down and riders who will be represented. In reference to Bala Verde's post.

Barloworld will send someone to the front. Bellotti, Froom and Augustyn will be the main candidates. Augustyn is 3 minutes down so that will be a risk of being chased down as he can climb. Froom did a lot of work yesterday? I would say Bellotti.

BBOX will send someone up there. I don't think it will be Voeckler. Tschopp or Sprick will be the two candidates. Although it wouldnt' surprise me if Voeckler tried again. He's that type of rider and he wants a win.

David Millar will definately try and get in the group for Garmin. He has unfinished business after last year.

Caisse may try and send David Garcia Lopez.

ISD - As Visconti tried yesterday, I don't think he will try again today. Although I could be wrong. Dario Cioni would be my main bet or Andriy Grivko.

Lampre will send someone. The logical choice will be Manuele Mori

Serramenti might try someone again. It was Serpa yesterday so again I don't think he will try. Maybe Rodriguez or Scarponi? Probably Scarponi as he is far down.

Columbia will send someone. Possoni is my bet.

Katusha will send someone. Ignatiev will be the guy.

Milram will send someone aswell. I reckon Marcus Fothen or Robert Forster.

Saxo Bank will have someone. Cancellara or Voigt. I fancy Cancellara!

Cervello may send Gerrans up the road. Possibility.

Although don't count out one or two of the sprinters try and get there. Pozzato or Forster.

Gilbert will definately try and get in the break.

AG2R will send Efimkin

Although dont' count out a sprint finish with 40 - 60 riders featuring Pettacchi and Cavendish. Afterall the last climb comes more than 40km from the end. Depends how motivated Columbia are. Considering they don't have the pink jersey if they can't get anyone in the break, then see them work their arse off for Cavendish.
A breakaway consisting of possibly

Gilbert, Efimkin, Cancellara/Voigt, Millar, Fothen, Ignatiev, Possoni, Scarponi, Cioni, Lopez, Tschopp, Belotti with 3 - 5 others?

 

If every team get their representative in the break (what you're suggesting here), than they'll (escapees) likely stay away. The climb isn't that easy and after two days in the mountains I doubt sprinters will be able to follow.
Everything but breakaway would be surprise for me.
Lastras and Fothen brothers (Markus more likely) could be in the breakaway.

 

Voeckler and Gilbert tried early in the stage with about 7 others. Didn't get away.

A group of 5 have got away and got under a 7 minute advantage 105km into the stage.

I can't see this break surviving. I think one or two sprinters will be in the group at the end and one of them will prevail.

 

Too small group to survive. That first climb could be a chance for more serious escape. I see these five reeled in by that breakaway and trying to staying with them.

 

Yep!

And that's when we see guys like Cancellara/Millar/Voigt/Gilbert/Fothen show their stuff.

Either that or the peloton catches up and it's a small group of 40 - 60 riders with Cav and Pettachi or Farrar or Pozzato or another combination or all in there.

 

7 minutes 111km to go.

 

103km to go. Gap 7:43

 

It looks like we slightly misjudged it.
Scarponi will succeed. Mostly on his sole effort.

 

thanks for the replies