Giro D'Italia 2008 : Stage 20 - May 31st : Rovetta => Tirano, 224 km



Powerful Pete

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So, will anyone with GC ambitions attack on the Gavia? How about Simoni... he has relatively little to lose...
 

earth_dweller

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Powerful Pete said:
So, will anyone with GC ambitions attack on the Gavia? How about Simoni... he has relatively little to lose...
I think Simoni will go for it. Nothing to lose. But is he going to attack on the Gavia or wait for the Mortirolo?
 

Powerful Pete

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earth_dweller said:
I think Simoni will go for it. Nothing to lose. But is he going to attack on the Gavia or wait for the Mortirolo?
The Gavia is really tough. I do not remember correctly, but I believe that there is a bit of gravel road on the Gavia climb, but I could be mistaken.

Depends on the other attacks, I suspect.
 

Watoni

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Powerful Pete said:
The Gavia is really tough. I do not remember correctly, but I believe that there is a bit of gravel road on the Gavia climb, but I could be mistaken.

Depends on the other attacks, I suspect.

No more gravel on the Gavia ...

I suspect the plan will be to isolate Contador on the Gavia and attack him on the Mortirolo.

I rode the GF Pantani last year (over the Gavia/Mortirolo to Aprica) and those are massive climbs, but the long descent into Bormio will allow people dropped on he climb to regroup a bit. The descent off the Mortirolo is narrow and windy, and the climb in Aprica starts right at the base of the descent so a break of 2-3 could keep their advantage over the chasers if they work together and then fight it out over the last few steeper kms of the climb to Aprica ...

Should be awesome!
 

TheDarkLord

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Powerful Pete said:
The Gavia is really tough. I do not remember correctly, but I believe that there is a bit of gravel road on the Gavia climb, but I could be mistaken.

Depends on the other attacks, I suspect.
Well, any gravel section if it is still there has to be very short as there is nothing indicated in the altitude profile.

Edit: Watoni beat me to it.
 

TheDarkLord

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Watoni said:
No more gravel on the Gavia ...

I suspect the plan will be to isolate Contador on the Gavia and attack him on the Mortirolo.

I rode the GF Pantani last year (over the Gavia/Mortirolo to Aprica) and those are massive climbs, but the long descent into Bormio will allow people dropped on he climb to regroup a bit. The descent off the Mortirolo is narrow and windy, and the climb in Aprica starts right at the base of the descent so a break of 2-3 could keep their advantage over the chasers if they work together and then fight it out over the last few steeper kms of the climb to Aprica ...

Should be awesome!
The Aprica is a very tame climb in comparison though. Average gradient is only 3.1% with a maximum gradient of 9%.
 

Eldrack

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The Gavia is a hard climb, can't argue with that. However the descent from the point of Santa Caterina, 49.3 kilometres from the base of the Mortirolo, is wide and open. This means a large group will arrive at the bottom of the Mortirolo together. Attacking on the Gavia is pretty much a waste of time unless you can get a large group off the front and isolate a GC contender behind. That would require a seriously high pace on the front, and that would probably just shatter the front group meaning that a more conservative but intact group that goes over the top second will then be able to catch back up before the Mortirolo.

I think therefore Astana will stay conservative, make sure Contador has team mates going over the Gavia, he won't be behind at the base Mortirolo. Therefore this is where the attacks will have to come in. The attacks will have to be sufficiently hard such that if Contador wants to go over the top of the Mortirolo with team mates to help him over Aprica and to the finish he'll still loose a lot of time. Still, unless Contador is really suffering I think it will be hard to take a lot of time out of him.
 

Powerful Pete

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Attacking hard on the Gavia could get rid of some of the Astana boys and put more pressure on Kloden and LL (assuming he is still there).
 

Watoni

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TheDarkLord said:
The Aprica is a very tame climb in comparison though. Average gradient is only 3.1% with a maximum gradient of 9%.

Yes, but it did not prevent serious time gaps from opening on the climb in 2006 ... Basso put a minute into Simoni, and both went over the Mortirolo together, so two GC contenders could work together to get rid of Contador on the Mortirolo and then fight it out on the climb to Aprica
 

phillop

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i think astana will have to put a few riders on the back of the break as, contador WILL be attacked early, and at best hell only have kloden, so any help hell need sum help up the road.
sella is 4.25 down, i think hell go for it early on the gavia, who will be willing to chase him? fark how many ppl still have a good chance of winning this race with only 2 days left?
 

Anticyclone

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phillop said:
i think astana will have to put a few riders on the back of the break as, contador WILL be attacked early, and at best hell only have kloden, so any help hell need sum help up the road.
Yes, Kloeden seems to be AC's right-hand man although Colom was also helping yesterday. The Aprica isnt that steep so drafting could be quite useful on it. Being left alone after the Mortirolo could therefore result in losing quite a bit of time. I'll go for Iglinsky being sent up the road although Leipheimer is another possibility.

Like many of the above, i think that Simoni and Sella will both put in big attacks today. Both may try to get team mates in the early break to give them an advantage later on. I dont think that Astana will be able to chase any breaks down by themselves so it will be interesting to see who lends them a hand.

I think that AC will be dropped today by the main contenders and come in several minutes down.
 

whiteboytrash

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Anticyclone said:
Yes, Kloeden seems to be AC's right-hand man although Colom was also helping yesterday. The Aprica isnt that steep so drafting could be quite useful on it. Being left alone after the Mortirolo could therefore result in losing quite a bit of time. I'll go for Iglinsky being sent up the road although Leipheimer is another possibility.

Like many of the above, i think that Simoni and Sella will both put in big attacks today. Both may try to get team mates in the early break to give them an advantage later on. I dont think that Astana will be able to chase any breaks down by themselves so it will be interesting to see who lends them a hand.

I think that AC will be dropped today by the main contenders and come in several minutes down.


Simoni & his team will now help Ricco. A deal would have been done last night. Sella is a nutter & can't be trusted. He's not a worker so Astana have no use for him. LPR have the men to make a difference. The alliances will make an interesting side to the main plot line.

Pete - Can you give us any indication on the weather ?
 

Anticyclone

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whiteboytrash said:
Simoni & his team will now help Ricco. A deal would have been done last night. Sella is a nutter & can't be trusted. He's not a worker so Astana have no use for him. LPR have the men to make a difference. The alliances will make an interesting side to the main plot line.
Looking back at the results of the 2006 tour i see that Simoni and Ricco were both on Saunier Duval. Do you know if they got on well and still do? Might influence the chance of them working together.
 

whiteboytrash

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Anticyclone said:
Looking back at the results of the 2006 tour i see that Simoni and Ricco were both on Saunier Duval. Do you know if they got on well and still do? Might influence the chance of them working together.


They got on very well & still do. Gibo was a father figure to Ricco at SD.

I mean fark even Ricco's hormone levels changed during the Giro last year when he rode along side Gibo... :p
 

whiteboytrash

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Just saw Rai Tre; weather is warm but overcast. No rain. Arm warmers already off as they reach the Gavia.
 

TheDarkLord

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cyclingnews reports that Kloden has abandoned the race! Wonder why - did he not want to play a domestique to Contador? Anyway, that will be good news to Di Luca and Ricco.

Edit: Micron beat me to it.
 

Anticyclone

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Cyclingnews is reporting that Kloeden has retired from the race. Bit of a surprise and a big blow for Contador. Up front there are quite a lot of riders off the front. Was looking earlier at the odds for today's stage on betfair and thought that Perez Cuapio looked a bit short. Guess someone must have known something... Few others ahead of the main group, including two CSF riders and Colom from Astana. He could now be the crucial team-mate for Contador.

EDIT: Micron beat me too!