Giro d'Italia

[musette]

Even LA has observed on what I pointed out before: that Il Falco, while he was skinny in last year's Giro, is skinnier. I think Il Falco chose that weight to improve his climbing results -- If he can't climb better technically (or can
t do that enough to, in his mind, keep pace with his main rivals), he has to reduce his weight to improve his results in that discipline. Reducig his weight probably won't impede his descending skills, given how amazing they were before.

"Armstrong tipped his former team mate Paolo Savoldelli to win the Giro d'Italia and feels the Italian also has the right credentials to win the Tour de France. "I think Savoldelli could win, he's riding well," Armstrong said. His performance in the time trial was good and surprised everybody. He's skinny but it's a very hard Giro.""

 

[limerickman]

I remember a Indurain who in his first 4-5 TDF's was only good enough to finish in the bottom half. I remenber an Indurain who was never good enough to finish a Vuelta except one in which he got a second. The list of DNF was usually next to his name. .

I think that you'll find that attempting to compare Indurain and Armstrong's early careers is futile.

1.Armstrong was TEAM LEADER at Motorola - whereas Indurain was a domestique at Reynolds/Banesto.
Team leaders are expected to be the best rider on their team : Armstrong
was incapable of finishing three out of four TDF starts and he wasn't capable of starting another GT in the same year as managing not to finish a TDF.

Indurain by comparison was a domestique - his job was to work for his team leader in his early career.
Indurain started and competed in both the TDF/Vuelta between 1985-1988
(his early career), as well as racing a full stage race/one day race program.
Indurain finished the first GT that he started at the Vuelta in 1985 - his first year as a pro.
Armstrong wasn't capable of finishing his first GT until three years in to his pro career.

I remember an Armstong who won and dominated 7 TDF's and retired a champion. Indurain won 5 and was handed his ass in the last TDF he rode in.
.

I remember the doping allegations that surrounded Armstrong from within his own team, from within the press and from former competitors who all suggested that Armstrong's explanation for his "improvement" was/is a pack of lies.
And I agree - it was/is a pack of lies.

I also remember Indurain winning 7 GT's and doing the TDF/Giro double, twice.
A feat that Armstrong was incapable of doing.

The funny thing about Indurain was that he was not considerd a great rider for half of his career..... then he just exploded into a champ overnight. And it was overnight. No one could see that coming. Of course everyone said it was because he has was tested and had huge lungs. Of course he was riding for Reynolds who had a their TDF winner testing positive for dope...... Wait , it was a banned substance, but not banned by the TDF. Loopholes.

Became a champ overnight? As you already said you didn't follow cycling during the 1980's : so perhaps you missed the fact that Indurain made steady progression from 1985 to 1991?

Winning the Tour of EEC 1986? Winning the Tour of Murcia 1986? Winning the Tour of Bourgos 1986?
Winning Paris Nice 1989 and 1990? Winning the Tour of Catalunya 1988?
Winning the Criterium Intl 1989?
Completing major GT;s in 1990 - and finishing 10th in the TDF and 7th in the
Vuelta.

Just what is your concept of overnight success?

Armstrong's "improvement" was overnight success in terms of GT's.

I remember someone making the argument that Armstrong developed overnight into a tour winner and it had to be something helpful ...... Just like Indurain.

Did Armstrong win a paris-nice between 1993-1996? Did he win any major stage races apart from the Tour duPont between 1993-1996?

I think you'll find that Indurains palmares supports his subsequent performances rather better than Armstrong's hour and a half time lag in 1995.
Armstrong's earlier palmares shows the lie of his subsequent performances.

Do you remember a fresh faced World Champion named Armstrong who won the race younger then anyone up to that point?

I don't remember any one younger.

But then again, I don't remember anyone here trying to claim that a one day race being evidence of great stage racing ability either.

Indurain was never able to win the rainbow jersey. Matter of fact, the closest he came was when a 21 year rookie named Armstrong was to show him how you win a World's. Indurain was unable to stay with Armstrong.

i believe Indurain punctured in the last km at Oslo.
The again, Indurain as TDF/Giro double winner that year had enough to contend with, by that stage of the season.

But speaking of not being able to sprint for the win - do you remember Armstrong not being able to win a sprint finish against that well known sprinter
Sergei Outschekov at the TDF in his early career?

 

[musette]

Even LA has observed on what I pointed out before: that Il Falco, while he was skinny in last year's Giro, is skinnier. I think Il Falco chose that weight to improve his climbing results

Look at Il Falco's profile and his "stick" arms:

http://www.cyclingnews.com/photos/2006/giro06/index.php?id=giro063/44

I think it's a good strategy for this Giro -- losing weight. The less Il Falco weighs subject to maintaining a reasonable amount of power, the better his climbing.

 

[meehs]

I think that you'll find that attempting to compare Indurain and Armstrong's early careers is futile.

1.Armstrong was TEAM LEADER at Motorola - whereas Indurain was a domestique at Reynolds/Banesto.
Team leaders are expected to be the best rider on their team : Armstrong
was incapable of finishing three out of four TDF starts and he wasn't capable of starting another GT in the same year as managing not to finish a TDF.

Indurain by comparison was a domestique - his job was to work for his team leader in his early career.
Indurain started and competed in both the TDF/Vuelta between 1985-1988
(his early career), as well as racing a full stage race/one day race program.
Indurain finished the first GT that he started at the Vuelta in 1985 - his first year as a pro.
Armstrong wasn't capable of finishing his first GT until three years in to his pro career.




I remember the doping allegations that surrounded Armstrong from within his own team, from within the press and from former competitors who all suggested that Armstrong's explanation for his "improvement" was/is a pack of lies.
And I agree - it was/is a pack of lies.

I also remember Indurain winning 7 GT's and doing the TDF/Giro double, twice.
A feat that Armstrong was incapable of doing.



Became a champ overnight? As you already said you didn't follow cycling during the 1980's : so perhaps you missed the fact that Indurain made steady progression from 1985 to 1991?

Winning the Tour of EEC 1986? Winning the Tour of Murcia 1986? Winning the Tour of Bourgos 1986?
Winning Paris Nice 1989 and 1990? Winning the Tour of Catalunya 1988?
Winning the Criterium Intl 1989?
Completing major GT;s in 1990 - and finishing 10th in the TDF and 7th in the
Vuelta.

Just what is your concept of overnight success?

Armstrong's "improvement" was overnight success in terms of GT's.






Did Armstrong win a paris-nice between 1993-1996? Did he win any major stage races apart from the Tour duPont between 1993-1996?

I think you'll find that Indurains palmares supports his subsequent performances rather better than Armstrong's hour and a half time lag in 1995.
Armstrong's earlier palmares shows the lie of his subsequent performances.





I don't remember any one younger.

But then again, I don't remember anyone here trying to claim that a one day race being evidence of great stage racing ability either.




i believe Indurain punctured in the last km at Oslo.
The again, Indurain as TDF/Giro double winner that year had enough to contend with, by that stage of the season.

But speaking of not being able to sprint for the win - do you remember Armstrong not being able to win a sprint finish against that well known sprinter
Sergei Outschekov at the TDF in his early career?

Ugh! Here we go! Do we really have to highjack this thread to rehash this **** again??? Take it to the "Soapbox" forum. Limerickman, you're a moderator for Christ's sake!

 

[musette]

A joke to brighten up everybody's day, from the TM website:

"Within touching distance of maglia rosa. Pollack also limited his losses on Tuesday to stay within touching distance of a shot at the maglia rosa, which he last pulled on in 2004. "Olaf is 41 seconds off the lead. A good sprint Wednesday, coupled with a great team performance in Thursday’s team time trial and we could see him go top on GC. It is a very hard task, but it’s possible!"

Err, that assumes TM does excellently in the TTT, among other things -- an assumption that I don't think will pan out. Another wrong assumption is that there is a stage Wednesday (as opposed to a rest day, which is reality).

On a serious note, for teams with cyclists who might actually have a chance at winning the GC, Selle Italia is dead last in the teams classification and goes first in the TTT. That, coupled with a weak team for this discipline, does not bode well for Mr. Rujano. (All the better, for Il Falco )

 

[Endym]

Err, that assumes TM does excellently in the TTT, among other things -- an assumption that I don't think will pan out.

They have:

Gonchar - was 5th at first TT, superb at timetrial
Rogers - was 9th at first TT, double world champion at TT
Pollack - was 28th at first TT
Ullrich - always good at timetrial

Any team that have Gonchar, Rogers, Ullrich (all are in top5 of the world, maybe even top3) is a team to beat.

 

[musette]

The short Stage 1 is not a good indication of how good or bad O Pollack's ITT capabilities are over a longer distances. Not that I'm saying it's bad -- we need to see. As for JU, well, he would be a formidable TTT and ITT force if he were in condition. But he is not.

I don't dispute that Gonchar and Rogers are helpful, but it's clear that CSC and DC are heads and shoulders above the rest of the teams (including TM) in the TTT stage on Thursday.

DC in fact has 4 out of the nine members of the winning TTT TdF 05 team, but five out of their nine members have been on key TTT TdF (because Eki was injured and not on the 05 team, even though he was on 04 and 03 winning TTT TdF teams). True, they are missing among their '05 strongest members in LA, Hincapie, Popo (they are also missing Ace and Noval). However, the remaining members are no slouches.

DC has very strong ITTists in: Savoldelli, Eki, Danielson.

Il Falco, Eki, Padrnos are considered excellent and experienced TTTists. Padrnos is considered a better TTTist than ITTist.

McCartney, Rubiera are fairly good ITTists, and Rubiera is an experienced and fairly good TTTist (and a very good TTTist for a strong climber).

Beltran is at least an experienced TTTist. He has at least not fallen or destroyed DC/USPS's three-peat in TTT wins.

White and Joachim also have experience with Grand Tour TTTs.

 

[Dead Star]

sorry to be so rude, but who f*cking cares? This has been a good Giro so far, and any more talk of how Disco are amazing compared to everyone else will make me go insane.

 

[musette]

Daily Peloton made an observation during today's live written commentary, with which I agree, on Selle Italia. Having their cyclists join breakways may not be the best tactic if the sole goal of the team were to assist Rujano in winning GC. That's because some breakways are a waste of effort that could otherwise be saved to assist the leader. Yes, there is all the background about Rujano's switching teams and how Selle Italia's being in breakways is helpful to airtime/marketing for the sponsor. And, yes, there is a rest day before the TTT. And further yes, Selle Italia has to ensure it gets a wild card slot in next year's Giro. However, the extent of continuing Selle Italia participation in breakways that appear to serve no overall GC-related strategic purpose is going to be interesting to monitor.

 

[musette]

DC did some practicing recently to figure out what the sequence of the TTT riders should be. In Tour TTT 05, this was the seqeunce:

Armstrong
Noval
Beltran
Azevedo
Popovych (in 04 -- this spot was Eki's)
Savoldelli (in 04 -- this spot was Landis')
Rubiera
Padrnos
Hincapie

Bruyneel said his ordering was based on strength in the discipline as well as body size, among other things. Here is the above list transformed into descriptions along those two dimensions:

Very strong team leader; large mass
Less experienced (but strong); large mass (placement after team leader means a fall by would have a smaller chance of jeopardizing the team leader)
Climber who is a relatively weak ITTist; small mass
Climber who is a better ITTist; small mass
Very strong TTTist; large/moderate mass
Very strong TTTist; large/moderate mass
Cimber who is a better ITTist; moderate mass
Very strong TTTist; very large mass
Very strong TTTist; very large mass and very responsible domestique

One way to mimic the above in the Giro might be as follows (underlined cyclists keep their positions relative to the team leader)

Savoldelli

Danielson (I think Danielson or McCartney, the "novice" Grand Tour TTTists will be put right behind Savoldelli, so that if they go down, they don't take Savoldelli with them. Likely to be Danielson, because he has more mass than McCartney and can probably shield Beltran better)

Beltran

McCartney

Joachim

White

Rubeira

Padrnos (this will create a strong three-person sequence of Padrnos/Eki/Savoldelli, which mimics the Tour sequence of Padrnos/Hincapie/LA)

Eki (smaller mass than in Tour sequence -- Hinapie, but he will be in front of Savoldelli and it is important that this person not fall. So I think Eki will be here, including because of his strength in the TTT discipline)

Above is only a guess, of course.

 

[lwedge]

sorry to be so rude, but who f*cking cares? This has been a good Giro so far, and any more talk of how Disco are amazing compared to everyone else will make me go insane.

Kind of makes you flip you lid doesn't it. All Disco and no play, makes Jack a dull boy !

 

[cyclingheroes]

sorry to be so rude, but who f*cking cares? This has been a good Giro so far, and any more talk of how Disco are amazing compared to everyone else will make me go insane.

yeah let's talk about Gerolsteiner: Torsten Hiekmann is a pretty good ITT rider, Stefan Schumacher also, Rebellin was pretty strong at the first stage (9), Ronny Scholz (wasn't that strong in the first stage but did very well in lots of other ITT's like the one of the Criterium International where he was number 9), i don't think that they will win the TTT, but they could surprise with a good result... They are in a winning mood which will boost them with great moral.

 

[limerickman]

Ugh! Here we go! Do we really have to highjack this thread to rehash this **** again??? Take it to the "Soapbox" forum. Limerickman, you're a moderator for Christ's sake!

Point taken, Meehs.

You're right - I shouldn't have regurgitated the past.
Apologies.

 

[limerickman]

yeah let's talk about Gerolsteiner: Torsten Hiekmann is a pretty good ITT rider, Stefan Schumacher also, Rebellin was pretty strong at the first stage (9), Ronny Scholz (wasn't that strong in the first stage but did very well in lots of other ITT's like the one of the Criterium International where he was number 9), i don't think that they will win the TTT, but they could surprise with a good result... They are in a winning mood which will boost them with great moral.

Gerolsteiner could be a darkhorse - for the TTT.
They have strength throughout their team and knowing Udo Bolts, I would imagine that they're well trained to put in a good performance.

I think Liberty Seguros will feature strongly - don't discount this squad.
as too CSC and TMO.

Saunier Duval - could make an impact too.

 

[meehs]

Point taken, Meehs.

You're right - I shouldn't have regurgitated the past.
Apologies.

No problem Lim. By the way, nice call on JV going for a break away today on Stage 4. Almost came to fruition! He's one of my favorites. I'd like to see all of his work pay-off for him more often.

 

[limerickman]

No problem Lim. By the way, nice call on JV going for a break away today on Stage 4. Almost came to fruition! He's one of my favorites. I'd like to see all of his work pay-off for him more often.

No my friend, you were right to call me on that, Meehs.
I was out of order.

But regarding JV - only he'd try to go for a flyer like that!
I like JV - he's a trier.

 

[limerickman]

The more I watch this Giro - the more impressed I am with Lotto.

For a team that tends to concentrate on lesser stage races and one day races, they've worked this Giro really well so far.

Henk Vogels worked really hard for McEwen today.

 

[whiteboytrash]

...and nice ride by Chris Bradt for Lotto... rode 28km with a broken arm and cracked elbow and managed to finish 28th on yesterdays stage.... he broke his arm by taking a **** on the side of the rode and got clipped by a press motocycle and was sent into the air and onto his arm...... Allan Peiper prepare's his boys well and still trains with Robbie McEwen....

The more I watch this Giro - the more impressed I am with Lotto.

For a team that tends to concentrate on lesser stage races and one day races, they've worked this Giro really well so far.

Henk Vogels worked really hard for McEwen today.

 

[musette]

Gerolsteiner could be a darkhorse - for the TTT.
They have strength throughout their team and knowing Udo Bolts, I would imagine that they're well trained to put in a good performance.

Lampre and Liquigas will also figure - as too CSC and TMO.

Saunier Duval - could make an impact too.

The maglia rosa says that Gerolsteiner haven't practiced the TTT (at least not before they got the maglia rosa). I think it will be challenging for them. Sauniver Duval, Lampre and Liquigas could only figure in the sense of clearly losing time.

Scott Sunderland notes: "In the team time trial, you've got three teams: T-Mobile, Discovery, and ourselves of course. Credit Agricole, Rabobank, and Quick.Step are not going to be too bad, but off the pace compared to those three. For us, it will be interesting see how Lampre and Saunier Duval go, for Cunego and Simoni. I see they've opted more for the climbers than the team time trial riders. They're banking on limiting their losses in the TTT and having enough riders for a lot of support for Cunego and Simoni in the last week."

The interesting thing about DC is that they have deliberately recruited/nurtured some good climbers who can TTT and ITT (that would be Danielson and Rubiera, and, of course, Il Falco; to a much lesser extent in terms of climbing, J McCartney). So, the DC roster is not increasing its TTT capabilities at the expense of reducing its climbing capabilities.

 

[limerickman]

...and nice ride by Chris Bradt for Lotto... rode 28km with a broken arm and cracked elbow and managed to finish 28th on yesterdays stage.... he broke his arm by taking a **** on the side of the rode and got clipped by a press motocycle and was sent into the air and onto his arm...... Allan Peiper prepare's his boys well and still trains with Robbie McEwen....

***********, WBT.
clipped by a presscar? That's unforgivable.
Whoever was driving that car ought to be punished.

Just looking at Lotto - another man that stands out for me is VanHuffel.
Peiper's a great guy too.