Giro : Stage 11 Pontedera - Pontedera, ITT : 50 kms

[Bjorn P.Dal]

jerks, all of you. It is 10:30 in the morning here at work. Just ate three oranges and getting ready for a lunchtime run. I am a long way from steak and beer. Ok, that's taken care of.

What a great TT. Lots of thoughts. Ullrich was amazing. He pedaled a 90-95 cadence so no worries about his knee. He also kept taking little breaks to stretch his legs. His mouth wasn't in the wide open suffer position we see in July... so this bodes well. More on him in a minute

Basso, amazing ride, he looked really fast. great cadence and great turn of speed. Ullrich definitely won the PR battle by winning when he had nothing to ride for but Basso, staying close still means something. As does his crushing of everyone else.

Savoldelli. Decent ride but doesn't have the snap he had for the first week.

Danielson. About what expected. The climbs will be interesting.

The other favorites got crushed. Basically, until last year, the TT wasn't a big deal in the Giro with Simoni, Garzelli, Cunego battles. That's why Gonchar did so well. He is a man among boys in that crowd. Now, with Savoldelli improving his TTing last year and Basso too, now Ullrich there with Mick Rogers etc. Suddenly the TT matters and the Simoni crowd lost what I would generally expect them to lose in a GT TT. They will have to attack and attack big in the mts or hope basso cracks big. Otherwise it is his to lose.

Back to Ullrich. I am so excited. He looked good out there. Interesting, though, his torso looked fat again in the aerobars but his belly was dead flat on the podium. This means, to me, that the wind was going down the neck of his skinsuit. This is a serious problem. One that would cost him 1-2 minutes in a 50k TT. He needs to get that fixed. Perhaps the skinsuit was made for him when he was fat and now it's a touch loose in the neck. Being a tri geek, I read up on aero stuff a lot. A skinsuit that fits right is worth over a minute in a 40k TT so more in a 50k plus the fact that the wind down the neck is an additional penalty. So he could have been 90 seconds to 2min faster with a proper suit. It goes like this, aero position #1, aero wheels #2 (he also didn't have a deep front wheel), skinsuit #3, then aero bike tubes, then helmet. I would say the suit and the front wheel cost over two minutes today. No big deal when training and he still won the stage.

Basso, on the other hand, had cervelo p3 carbon, zipp 999 with ceramic bearings, sweet pink suit, and wind tunnel tested position. This all means that Ullrich's power is up there. A few pounds and he will have good chances come July.

Next..... the big mountains.

Hmm, big numbers.
Add, FWIW of t-mobs website:
""I’m amazed that I posted the best time. I didn’t fire on all cylinders at first“, said Ullrich, who wanted to find his rhythm. "When I heard that I’m among the best, I gave it a hundred percent”."

 

[saluki]

i really don't think so... 6-7min is the kind of time i think that Cunego and Simoni could pull back... but maximally so.. if any rider has a bad day on a mountain stage they can loose 10min easy... so i really think it's going to be close, like last year..

had another look at the stages.. Stage 17 - Plan de Corones brutal but have you looked at stage 19 - Passo di San Pellegrino..? uphill finish 4 rated climb that come towards the end of the stage and it's 224km long!! this has to be the hardest stage of the 2006 Giro... good candidate for the old send 3 team members in the early morning break attack the penultimate climb.. bridge to the break... draft to the foot of the final climb... make major time and hammer the finish... i'm thinking Lampre has the strength to pull this off... but will Cunego have the legs to pull it of... again.. it's how he cemented his 2004 victory.

Sounds like Hera's strategy for taking last years Vuelta from Menchov. Good strategy, but three problems. A. Menchov's team was **** and unable to help him at all. Basso at least seems to have Sastre. B. Menchov's lead was much smaller than that of Basso. C. Hera's was slightly stronger in the mountains than Menchov, but not strong enough to drop him. So far no one has shown more mountain strength than Basso.

 

[gntlmn]

It's Armstrong's technique, not in a possessive sense, but in a descriptive one. We're all cycling fans, but not everyone has been a cycling fan since 2000, and many people are not familiar with the pedaling cadences of bygone legends, so descriptively, it makes sense to associate it with the rider who has used it most successfully most recently.

As for the Giro, I would love to think that Ullrich's improving form makes him a favorite for the TdF, but if Basso is on form, Jan is riding for second place again, in my opinion. Basso has a distinct edge in the mountains -- Jan cannot match Basso's explosiveness, only mitigate his losses as well as possible with his methodical style. Ordinarily, I'd say that advantage is offset by Ullrich's form in the time trials, but as we know, CSC is T-Mobile's equal in the TTT, and since last years TdF Basso has shown he'll only lose seconds, not minutes, to Jan in the ITTs.

I think Jan stands a fair chance of winning the TdF, but only because of the fair chance that something (an illness, tumble, etc.) will befall Basso during the race.

All that being said, it certainly looks significantly brighter for Ullrich fans than it did just a few days ago when everyone was fretting about his "gut".

5 time winner indurain was also a high cadence cyclist.

adding to your jan comments, consider that the tdf is considered to favor time trialists this year, the tdf being relatively flatter than in recent years i tried to get an idea of this by a review of the course, but the mountains still look like mountains to me. it's going to be hard to hold back basso from gapping the field on the climbs this year. he's looking awfully strong in the giro.

what impressed me about basso is that the guy has heart. instead of bailing out of the giro last year when the tour was coming up, he risked the tour by sticking with it in the giro while he was puking his guts up with the flu. that shows true grit. to me, it's the sign of a champion. ullrich's no slouch himself though. he also has grit. maybe he'll shed that last little bit of weight and put up a real challenge in july. this will be near his last chance. he's getting older all the time.

 

[saluki]

Hmm, big numbers.
Add, FWIW of t-mobs website:
""I’m amazed that I posted the best time. I didn’t fire on all cylinders at first“, said Ullrich, who wanted to find his rhythm. "When I heard that I’m among the best, I gave it a hundred percent”."

This one is hard to understand, since Jan was gaining time on Basso in the early going when he was supposedly taking it easy, and then he was loosing time to Basso when he was supposedly giving 100%.

 

[saluki]

5 time winner indurain was also a high cadence cyclist.

adding to your jan comments, consider that the tdf is considered to favor time trialists this year, the tdf being relatively flatter than in recent years i tried to get an idea of this by a review of the course, but the mountains still look like mountains to me. it's going to be hard to hold back basso from gapping the field on the climbs this year. he's looking awfully strong in the giro.

what impressed me about basso is that the guy has heart. instead of bailing out of the giro last year when the tour was coming up, he risked the tour by sticking with it in the giro while he was puking his guts up with the flu. that shows true grit. to me, it's the sign of a champion. ullrich's no slouch himself though. he also has grit. maybe he'll shed that last little bit of weight and put up a real challenge in july. this will be near his last chance. he's getting older all the time.

I believe that Basso will win the TDF, but I wouldn't talk about gaping people in the mountains. A lot of the best climbers are not in the Giro. If he simply matches the best climbers in the moutains he will win based upon his TTs. And I still believe that Jan will loose too much time in the moutains to compensate with his TT performance.

 

[Dead Star]

Basso at least seems to have Sastre. B. .

urrr Inigo Cuesta as well?

 

[gntlmn]

I believe that Basso will win the TDF, but I wouldn't talk about gaping people in the mountains. A lot of the best climbers are not in the Giro. If he simply matches the best climbers in the moutains he will win based upon his TTs. And I still believe that Jan will loose too much time in the moutains to compensate with his TT performance.

jan probably peaked out in 2003, during the Tdf, when he came about a minute away from unseating Armstrong. He's been declining ever since: so close, and yet so far.

 

[jhuskey]

Gentlemen remember that the TDF is won on not just strength and power but also strategy,so we will see.
As to the TTT ,there is none in this years TDF to t-mobiles advantage I think.

 

[JRMDC]

Don't have a crystal ball, nor any spectacular foresight, just common sense. Given how Basso dropped everyone on the first mountain finish, and finished second to the German Diesel in the TT, I can't see how he loses the Giro unless a mechanical, injury, illness, etc.

And given that a "relatively" out of shape Jan (though he could still crush everyone on this forum between his thunderous thighs) humbled everyone today, I think another couple month's of training and weight loss will bode quite well for him. Furhtermore, in the TdF the first mountain stage (his achilles hill) is not an uphill finish, and with lots of ITT (his forte) and no TTT (CSC forte), the course is suited for him. Hence, I predict he wins TdF.

Just my .02...sorry if I offended.

Mark

I wasn't offended by your post, I just found it silly and premature, because way over the top, for the reasons I've stated. Plus others - what about all the riders who aren't at the Giro and thus cannot be compared side by side - Vino, Landis, Leipheimer - previous top-ten finishers at the TdF. We have no "answers" yet, only speculations - plenty of fun in that.

 

[doctorSpoc]

i don't know why people keep saying that Jan is bad in the mountains... that's just not the case... Jan has made time on Armstrong in several instances on mountain stages of past TdFs.. Jan's problem is that he allways has ONE bad day where he erases all his gains from the TT... and this is typically the mountain stage 1 or 2 if one is really a transition stage... i.e. it usually the 1st real mountain stage with an uphill finish.. after that his climbing skills just get better and better.. since this year's mountain stages are back loaded this really favours Ullrich... but to say that Ullrich is somehow bad in the mountians is just rediculous.

 

[micron]

Ullrich crossed the line with something in reserve

Basso crossed the line going all out to take time out of his real opposition in this race

Psychological advantage to Ullrich.

Best thing is, it means we might just see a classic duel in July this year - which is exactly what the TdF needs to reinvigorate it after the somewhat dull and predictable Armstrong years.

 

[Dead Star]

Ullrich crossed the line with something in reserve

Basso crossed the line going all out to take time out of his real opposition in this race

Psychological advantage to Ullrich.

Best thing is, it means we might just see a classic duel in July this year - which is exactly what the TdF needs to reinvigorate it after the somewhat dull and predictable Armstrong years.

too right it does

 

[sonicman]

Basso will cook Ullrich in the mountains.

And I believe that this thing that Ullrich is better in the last week is a mith.

Ullrich will only get a good chance if he makes a miracle in the Time Trials.

 

[jhuskey]

Basso will cook Ullrich in the mountains.

And I believe that this thing that Ullrich is better in the last week is a mith.

Ullrich will only get a good chance if he makes a miracle in the Time Trials.

Which race,the Giro or the TDF?

 

[sonicman]

Which race,the Giro or the TDF?

The Tour, of course.

 

[jhuskey]

The Tour, of course.

Ok, well opinions vary.

 

[wolfix]

I think Basso will have his hands full in the TDF. JU can climb. And he can time trial. And he has a team that will help.
I see something intersting in this Giro. I have never really paid attention to Danielson but he is sitting in 5th place. And isn't he considered a climber? It seems that having 2 climbers in the top 5 could cause problems for Basso when the climbs start eliminating riders.. And open the door for someone else in the top 5 to take advantage of this situation.
What is the situation of CSC's team as far as climbing goes ? [Not Basso of course]

 

[sonicman]

I think Basso will have his hands full in the TDF. JU can climb. And he can time trial. And he has a team that will help.
I see something intersting in this Giro. I have never really paid attention to Danielson but he is sitting in 5th place. And isn't he considered a climber? It seems that having 2 climbers in the top 5 could cause problems for Basso when the climbs start eliminating riders.. And open the door for someone else in the top 5 to take advantage of this situation.
What is the situation of CSC's team as far as climbing goes ? [Not Basso of course]

Sastre is a great climber, and some others should be there too.

 

[limerickman]

Well I picked Rogers for todays ITT.

I didn't pick Jan because I assumed that he didn't want to stress his knee.

My sincere hope is that Jan will complete the Giro this year.

I have had this nagging feeling that JU's knee injury was not as bad as first suggested.
Today showed that his knee can take the starin of an ITT.

I hope that he will get through the mountains in the final 10 days of this Giro.

If he does, I believe it's game on in the 2007 TDF.

Just re-watched todays ITT : brilliant to see DerJan back on the winners podium.

 

[saluki]

I think Basso will have his hands full in the TDF. JU can climb. And he can time trial. And he has a team that will help.
I see something intersting in this Giro. I have never really paid attention to Danielson but he is sitting in 5th place. And isn't he considered a climber? It seems that having 2 climbers in the top 5 could cause problems for Basso when the climbs start eliminating riders.. And open the door for someone else in the top 5 to take advantage of this situation.
What is the situation of CSC's team as far as climbing goes ? [Not Basso of course]

Been watching Danielson closely for the last year to see if Bruneel had anyone that he could develop into a TDF contender. While Tom is a pretty good climber, he is not quite in the top echelon. And he is also a little short on aggression. My take is that DISCO doesn't have any future TDF winners in the current stable. And it will take some special circumstances for Savoldelli to win another Giro.

I don't expect a big battle between Ullrich and Basso in the TDF. But I'm really excited to see who the new contenders will be. I don't believe it will be easy for Basso. Valverde should challenge him. Vinokurov had a winter conditioning program that he believes has helped him. If Vino comes in a few pounds lighter he could be a serious challenger. Will Landis be able to translate his great early season condition into anything by July? And I like this kid Alberto Contador. He is only 23 and he beat Valverde in both the moutain top and the ITT in the Tour of Romanie. Cadel Evans also looks like he is in the condition of his life. I expect it to be a very exciting TDF. But not because Jan won one TT.