wolfix said:
Now...... The real issue is "How will the Democrats screw up 2008?" They were handed the election in 2004 and lost. They have to put together a Clinton-Edwards united front to win.
If they nominate Hillary that will be their screwup.
There are fundamental features on the American poltical landscape. The first is that the most charismatic candidate always wins. Voters tell newspapermen and pollsters they care about the issues, but the fact is that it has been more than 30 years since someone lacking in the charisma/looks department has won the presidency. Americans vote for presidents the same way they vote for candidates on reality TV. And on this point Hillary fails miserably. She has zero charisma. She comes across as pedantic and condescending. Her political message seems like it is written by Bill Clinton's old staff, but she does not have the personality to carry it off. She just is not a likable person, and her phoniness makes delivering political points like swimming up river.
A second feature is that people with records have an extremely difficult time winning the nomination. George H. Bush is the only non-governer to win the presidency in the last 30+ years, and Bush did not have much of a record. He was ostracized by the Reagan White House and had spent his previous years in bureaucratic jobs, like director of the CIA. He did not have much of a record to attack. Again Hillary fails miserably. She will have to deal with all the baggage of the Clinton presidency, her miraculous transition from left wing extremist to middle of the roader, and a long history of scandal. People start out with political capital and it dissipates with each scandal and bad decision. Hillary does have much, if any, to start out with.
The only thing she really has going for her is money. That is a third feature of the American presidential system. Whoever has the most money has a huge advantage in the primaries. Whether this will outweigh the other two features is hard to say.
One spectre that will always haunt Hillary's primary campaign is the question of whether she is electable. We saw in the last election how Dean's candidacy fell apart when the Dems became convinced he could not win. The wheels just fell off the wagon and Kerry vaulted into the lead, almost by default.
Another ghost that will trail her run is the battle for independent voters. The hardcore Dems would elect her in a second, but the race is won by carrying the middle one third of the electorate. It was this middle third that rejected Gore, in large part because the Clinton presidency was like an albatross around his neck, and elected a moron like Dubya. Dubya ran as an anti-Clinton and it worked wonders. That did not work out as expected but I think it is a bit much to expect the same voters to zig zag right back into the arms of what they ran away from eight years ago.
If the Democrats nominate Hillary then they will be throwing away a huge opportunity. Ever since the Great Society, the Republicans have painted the Democrats as tax and spenders. Dubya's gross fiscal irresponsibility rips the heart out of that argument. They need to take advantage that, and you don't do that by nominating someone who still thinks like Ted Kennedy. Dubya has also marginalized a several of the traditional bases of the Republican party. He is a religious zealot, and it has just plain creeped a lot of people out. His assault on civil rights has ****** off the libertarian wing of the party. His budget excesses have ****** of the fiscal conservatives. When the scope of the fraud that has gone on in the housing bubble becomes apparent, there goes the law and order crowd. The politcal landscape is ripe for a large scale tilt that could last for a couple of decades, but Hillary is definitely not the person to lead the revolution.
The Democrats need to nominate someone who is charismatic, articulate, decent looking, and solidly in the political center. Hillary fails on all counts. An Edwards/Obama ticket would be formidable.
Wolfix, if you thnk Hillary is going to pull some voters away from the right, you are crazy.