Hincapie - top 15?

[JRMDC]

It is time to consider the super-critical issue of whether George can make it into the top 15...

Seriously, it is fascinating to me as a Hincapie fan that he has done so well. He is 17th currently, but it looks like he can make 15th and has an outside chance of making 14th. Here is a table of their relative position and their relative performance over the 19km TT in stage 1.

14 Zubeldia 3:49 ahead 2:20 slower
15 Sevilla 1:09 ahead 2:44 slower
16 Jaksche 0:59 ahead 2:24 slower
17 Hincapie

It seems that Hincapie can easily take over 15th, and with a strong effort, perhaps 14th. One contingency, however, is that George's two strong TT performances this year (TdF and Dauphine) have come over short courses and stage 20 is ultra-long.

 

[Crankster]

It is time to consider the super-critical issue of whether George can make it into the top 15...

Seriously, it is fascinating to me as a Hincapie fan that he has done so well. He is 17th currently, but it looks like he can make 15th and has an outside chance of making 14th. Here is a table of their relative position and their relative performance over the 19km TT in stage 1.

14 Zubeldia 3:49 ahead 2:20 slower
15 Sevilla 1:09 ahead 2:44 slower
16 Jaksche 0:59 ahead 2:24 slower
17 Hincapie

It seems that Hincapie can easily take over 15th, and with a strong effort, perhaps 14th. One contingency, however, is that George's two strong TT performances this year (TdF and Dauphine) have come over short courses and stage 20 is ultra-long.

Armstrong usually uses a couple of teammates to go hard during ITT to get some time pointers for himself. Because of absence of Eki this year, Hincapie may need to go all out, even if he didn't want to improve his GC.

 

[roadhog]

Armstrong usually uses a couple of teammates to go hard during ITT to get some time pointers for himself. Because of absence of Eki this year, Hincapie may need to go all out, even if he didn't want to improve his GC.

As I often point out, you all know more about the grand tours than me so this is an honest question:

I completely understand that in other TTs many of the domestiques should not go all out because they should be more interested in conserving energy for protecting the leader in following stages, etc (example, Bruyneel's criticism of Landis' impressive effort at Alp d'Huez last year).

BUT, given that the only stage left after tomorrow is the largely ceremonial (except for sprinters) parade in Paris, shouldn't we expect everyone (except maybe sprinters) to go all out? I would think it is an excellent chance to show their ability/potential to the teams to increase their salary and/or contract offers for the future if nothing else. Is there a reason to not go all out here?

 

[davidbod]

Hincapie, Julich, Floyd and Levi will all move up considerably as there are a lot of riders in the top 15 that can't ITT. Rasmussen will fall like a lead balloon just inside the top ten. Mancebo will lose several places as well. Even Cadel Evans will lose a place or two. Tomorrow's stage will be quite exciting to see the top 20 moving around so much.

 

[Dead Star]

don't any of you find it at all suspicious that this classics rider is suddenly able to TT and climb with the best?

 

[TrekDedicated]

I really hope he does well. He's a dedicated cyclist and loves his job. He is awesome. I think his career is starting to really pick up!

 

[Crankster]

As I often point out, you all know more about the grand tours than me so this is an honest question:

I completely understand that in other TTs many of the domestiques should not go all out because they should be more interested in conserving energy for protecting the leader in following stages, etc (example, Bruyneel's criticism of Landis' impressive effort at Alp d'Huez last year).

BUT, given that the only stage left after tomorrow is the largely ceremonial (except for sprinters) parade in Paris, shouldn't we expect everyone (except maybe sprinters) to go all out? I would think it is an excellent chance to show their ability/potential to the teams to increase their salary and/or contract offers for the future if nothing else. Is there a reason to not go all out here?

Only about 15 guys have a real shot at placing in top ten in tomorrow's stage. Nobody will care if you finished 18th. Unless your high GC place is threatened by someone or you are the one threatening it (Ulle, Rasmussen, Mancebo, Leipheimer, Evans etc.) or you have something to prove (Ulle, Armstrong, Basso), why bother? Save your legs to fight another day.

 

[dasnootz]

It is time to consider the super-critical issue of whether George can make it into the top 15...

Seriously, it is fascinating to me as a Hincapie fan that he has done so well. He is 17th currently, but it looks like he can make 15th and has an outside chance of making 14th. Here is a table of their relative position and their relative performance over the 19km TT in stage 1.

14 Zubeldia 3:49 ahead 2:20 slower
15 Sevilla 1:09 ahead 2:44 slower
16 Jaksche 0:59 ahead 2:24 slower
17 Hincapie

It seems that Hincapie can easily take over 15th, and with a strong effort, perhaps 14th. One contingency, however, is that George's two strong TT performances this year (TdF and Dauphine) have come over short courses and stage 20 is ultra-long.

14th isn't too shabby. Disco had more top 15 riders than any other team... though TMo had 2 in the top 6.

 

[Bjorn P.Dal]

14th isn't too shabby. Disco had more top 15 riders than any other team... though TMo had 2 in the top 6.

2 in the top 3 you mean?

 

[JRMDC]

14th isn't too shabby..

Yes, Hincapie caught all three, but was himself almost overtaken by Julich, who fell 24 seconds short of 14th.

A great tour by Hincapie. Anyone have any idea what his schedule is likely to be the rest of the year?

 

[JDM]

From Deadstar "don't any of you find it at all suspicious that this classics rider is suddenly able to TT and climb with the best?"

Hincapie has never been a slouch in time trials - except maybe for the one up Alpe d'Huez in 2004(and he finished 52nd there). If you look at the last four prologues he has gradually improved:
2002 - 29th
2003 - 13th
2004 - 10th
2005 - 4th
Also in the final time trial of the last four tours he has done well:
2002 - 51st
2003 - 8th
2004 - 11th
2005, today - 8th
I like to think that he has improved his TT ability thanks in part to the team's focus on the Team TT at the tour. He was a vital part of each of the team's wins in that discipline. Lastly, look at how Hincapie has done overall the last five tours(including this year).
2001 - 71st
2002 - 59th
2003 - 47th
2004 - 33rd
2005 - 14th.
I don't see any extreme leaps in results or performance. Besides, if someone can finish 33rd in the Tour, I don't think it's unreasonable for that same person to place 14th in the Tour. I'm sure someone will disagree and cry foul(drugs!). But in Hincapie's results I see the culmination of years of hardwork and sacrifice.

 

[JRMDC]

Thanks for the detailed info, JDM!