HOLY ****! I figured it (Landis conspiracy) out!

[Simon Brooke]

in message <[email protected]>, Stu Fleming
('[email protected]') wrote:

[snip]
> What really happened - cockup theory always preferred to conspiracy - a
> rider with nothing to lose and one chance at glory decides to boost,
> the tech uses contaminated blood and the sample post-stage tests
> positive.
> The T comes from early season prep. No creams, patches, disgruntled
> masseurs, Jack Daniels or whatever else involved.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Yes, I could believe that.

--
[email protected] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

Hobbit ringleader gives Sauron One in the Eye.

 

[Simon Brooke]

in message <[email protected]>, Jeff
('[email protected]') wrote:

>
> Stu Fleming wrote:
> (snip)>
>> So if a rider wanted a quick boost, the autologous route is the one to
>> choose. The blood will come from earlier in the programme. The
>> reinfused blood will have traces of whatever substances were being
>> used
>> in that phase. If any of those happened to include synthetic T, then
>> the traces will show up in the sample.
>>
>> We know, or suspect, that the medical tech responsible for this
>> process for Phonak is incompetent (Hamilton/Perez).
>>
>> What really happened - cockup theory always preferred to conspiracy -
>> a rider with nothing to lose and one chance at glory decides to boost,
>> the tech uses contaminated blood and the sample post-stage tests
>> positive.
>> The T comes from early season prep. No creams, patches, disgruntled
>> masseurs, Jack Daniels or whatever else involved.
>
> This is the most plausible theory I have heard yet (unfortunately,
> since I am still
> trying to hope that FL is innocent).
>
> One problem though: can your theory explain why the e in the measured
> t/e ratio
> was low, rather than the t being high?

That's easy.

The infusion was of blood high in T, because he'd been using T in
out-of-season preparation. He hadn't been using E because he didn't
expect an out of season test. During the day (stage 17) he drank huge
amounts of water, which caused his urine to be exceedingly dilute when
tested. Hence, the values of both T and E in his urine were lower than
they would have been if he had not drunk so much.

--
[email protected] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; killing [afghan|iraqi] civilians is not 'justice'

 

[Simon Brooke]

in message <[email protected]>, Mark
('[email protected]') wrote:

> Jeff wrote:
>
>> Stu Fleming wrote:
>> (snip)>
>>
>>>So if a rider wanted a quick boost, the autologous route is the one to
>>>choose. The blood will come from earlier in the programme. The
>>>reinfused blood will have traces of whatever substances were being
>>>used
>>>in that phase. If any of those happened to include synthetic T, then
>>>the traces will show up in the sample.
>>>
>>>We know, or suspect, that the medical tech responsible for this
>>>process for Phonak is incompetent (Hamilton/Perez).
>>>
>>>What really happened - cockup theory always preferred to conspiracy -
>>>a rider with nothing to lose and one chance at glory decides to boost,
>>>the tech uses contaminated blood and the sample post-stage tests
>>>positive.
>>>The T comes from early season prep. No creams, patches, disgruntled
>>>masseurs, Jack Daniels or whatever else involved.
>>
>>
>> This is the most plausible theory I have heard yet (unfortunately,
>> since I am still
>> trying to hope that FL is innocent).
>>
>> One problem though: can your theory explain why the e in the measured
>> t/e ratio
>> was low, rather than the t being high?
>
> Here's a guess: The "E" is low because 16 stages of the Tour depletes
> both "T" and "E", say to *very* low levels (haven't we already
> established this?), the reinfused blood has high "T" and only normal
> "E", but there is only 1-2 units of it, so mixed with the rest of FL's
> blood, we end up with normal "T" and low "E".

Makes sense.

--
[email protected] (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/

;; Woz: 'All the best people in life seem to like LINUX.'
;; <URL:http://www.woz.org/woz/cresponses/response03.html>

 

[[email protected]]

Tere wrote:

> If the infused blood has a high level of exogenous T, it would have a
> surpressed level of E. You'd get a double effect: The T in the blood
> would shut down internal production and it would "dilute" the E that is
> already there. I don't how long it take to surpress T production
> either, but the diluting effect old be immediate. It still moght not be
> enought to get him to an 11:1 ratio. But if he has a naturally hing T,
> he might be hovering around 4:1 instead of 1:1 or 2:1. A unit of blood
> might not be enough to get him from 4:1 to 11:0, I just don't know.

Well, the problem with the theory is that you're only adding
maybe 5% of the blood. So even if he had low T and E levels,
it's hard to make the T/E ratio move a lot. For example,
suppose his T had dropped to half its normal value and
E was even lower, so that T/E was 2:1, but in absolute
terms, the concentration of T is 0.5 * whatever the normal
level is (so many micrograms/liter). Now you add very
boosted blood which has lots of T and hardly any E.
But you're only adding 1/20th of the blood volume.

Tnew = 0.95*Told + 0.05*Tboost

In order to double the amount of T, the boosted blood
has to have 10.5 times the normal level of T.
That would bring up the combined T/E to 4:1.
To bring T/E up to 10:1, the boosted blood would have to
have 40 times the normal concentration of testosterone.

Again, all dependent on the assumptions, but it's
hard to change ratios by adding 5% of volume.