How has does power develop over time?

[objective]

I'm attempting to asses gains in power that I've made over the last year and I'm finding more questions than answers. So, I thought I would ask the question "out loud", so to speak.

* What kind of gains in power can one expect to see over a 3-5
year period starting from a couch-potato?

* Is there anyway to predict FT or asses FT potential?

* Does functional threshold level off after some initial period of training?
Would it be safe to say that this leveling off could take 3-5 years to
reach? Assume 15-20 hours a week of structured training.

* Do elite cyclists generaly continue to increase their FT from season
to season or do they simply try to manage *when* they will be the
strongest in a season?

Also, would anyone care to share their power development stories?

BACKGROUND
----------
I'm a 34 year old newbie. I've been riding for 14 months.
Here's are some of my data points.

Best 20 Minute power values.
NP AVR DATE
---------------------
229 (214) 11-2004
271 (237) 1-21-2005
247 (242) 5-7
278 (244) 7-1
315 (253) 8-6

 

[RapDaddyo]

I'm sure there are some studies of the average rate of development over time, but I'm guessing there is a large standard deviation. I think this varies a lot from individual to individual. My view is that each of us has a maximum attainable potential (assuming optimal training), and that early progress is quick and easy and then becomes progressively longer and harder. My own progress is probably not typical because my history is not typical. I raced seriously for ~5 years in the early 1970s when I was in my late 20s. When I say raced seriously, I mean 300-400 miles/week and one race just about every weekend from April to September. There were no categories then, but most of my training buddies who continued to race went straight into Cat3 or better. Then, due to life and 200K+ frequent flyer miles/yr, I stopped cycling and took up running. Then, in the last 10 years, I did no organized training in any sport. I weighed 212 lbs and my BF% was 28%. I decided to resume cycling and got on my bike (new bike) for the first time on 3/20/05. I've been riding 14-20 hours/week since 3/20. My first two months was spinning at ~100w. I have no idea what my MP was, but it was not much more than 100w. I began doing a mix of L4-L6 intervals beginning late May. While I haven't done a max power test of any duration, I can estimate my power from my intervals and group rides. I'd say my 20 minute MP is ~300w and I think my 1 hour MP is ~275w. I now weigh 175 and my BF% is 18%. I anticipate that my 1 hour MP will level off at ~300w with my current, ad hoc training schedule, at which time I plan to "get serious" to increase it significantly further. I want to race again next spring (at 165 lbs) and I think I need to get my 40K MP well over 300w to be taken seriously.

 

[RapDaddyo]

I anticipate that my 1 hour MP will level off at ~300w with my current, ad hoc training schedule, at which time I plan to "get serious" to increase it significantly further. I want to race again next spring (at 165 lbs) and I think I need to get my 40K MP well over 300w to be taken seriously.

FWIW, I'll give you an idea of what I mean by "get serious." I spend plenty of time on my bike, so I doubt that I will need to increase my time in the saddle. But, if I look at my last 28 days of training, the mix is heavily weighted toward zones 1-3:

Zone Pct of Time
1 45.0%
2 23.5%
3 13.5%
4 08.0%
5 04.5%
6 05.6%
​

So, my total training time in zones 4+ is only 18.1%. This is because I only do pure intervals 2x/wk and my group rides are only maybe 1/4 in zones 4+. I do recovery rides of 2-3 hours 3x/wk at ~150w. This mix will shift dramatically once I hit what I think is the end of "Easy Street." The change in mix will occur because I anticipate doing pure intervals 3x/wk and I will begin riding at least some of my weekend rides with a faster group that pushes the pace more aggressively than my present group. Actually, I have the luxury of riding with one of two different groups. One group probably averages ~250w and the other probably averages ~300w. I haven't been in shape to ride with either group until now and I'm still not ready for the faster group. But, it's nice to have multiple groups to hook up with as one increases in power and fitness. I can't wait until I can hang with the faster (semi-pro racing team) group on the 8-mile climb from Hoover Dam to Boulder City (see attached profile). That'll be a cool day.

 

[objective]

I'm sure there are some studies of the average rate of development over time, but I'm guessing there is a large standard deviation. I think this varies a lot from individual to individual. My view is that each of us has a maximum attainable potential (assuming optimal training), and that early progress is quick and easy and then becomes progressively longer and harder. My own progress is probably not typical because my history is not typical. I raced seriously for ~5 years in the early 1970s when I was in my late 20s. When I say raced seriously, I mean 300-400 miles/week and one race just about every weekend from April to September. There were no categories then, but most of my training buddies who continued to race went straight into Cat3 or better. Then, due to life and 200K+ frequent flyer miles/yr, I stopped cycling and took up running. Then, in the last 10 years, I did no organized training in any sport. I weighed 212 lbs and my BF% was 28%. I decided to resume cycling and got on my bike (new bike) for the first time on 3/20/05. I've been riding 14-20 hours/week since 3/20. My first two months was spinning at ~100w. I have no idea what my MP was, but it was not much more than 100w. I began doing a mix of L4-L6 intervals beginning late May. While I haven't done a max power test of any duration, I can estimate my power from my intervals and group rides. I'd say my 20 minute MP is ~300w and I think my 1 hour MP is ~275w. I now weigh 175 and my BF% is 18%. I anticipate that my 1 hour MP will level off at ~300w with my current, ad hoc training schedule, at which time I plan to "get serious" to increase it significantly further. I want to race again next spring (at 165 lbs) and I think I need to get my 40K MP well over 300w to be taken seriously.

Thanks for the response. I'm not familiar w/ this MP business. I tend to follow Coggan's approach, terminology, etc. and I've not come across MP yet. Is MP simply highest average for some period.

Also, would you be interested in sharing your power data?

 

[objective]

FWIW, I'll give you an idea of what I mean by "get serious." I spend plenty of time on my bike, so I doubt that I will need to increase my time in the saddle. But, if I look at my last 28 days of training, the mix is heavily weighted toward zones 1-3:

Zone Pct of Time
1 45.0%
2 23.5%
3 13.5%
4 08.0%
5 04.5%
6 05.6%
​

[snip]

Are these zones power based? If so, what ranges do you use for each zone.

 

[RapDaddyo]

Thanks for the response. I'm not familiar w/ this MP business. I tend to follow Coggan's approach, terminology, etc. and I've not come across MP yet. Is MP simply highest average for some period.

MP = max sustainable power

Also, would you be interested in sharing your power data?

Sure. What do you want?

 

[objective]

MP = max sustainable power

Sure. What do you want?

I'm assuming you are using a power meter of some kind and I'd be interested in looking at your data.

You can send it to [email protected]

 

[RapDaddyo]

I'm assuming you are using a power meter of some kind and I'd be interested in looking at your data.

You can send it to [email protected]

I have lots of data, all in Cycling Peaks workout files. Give me some idea what you want so I can select the right files to send. I have a mix of group rides, recovery rides and intervals. As I said above, I haven't done any MP tests or a full-out TT.

 

[objective]

I have lots of data, all in Cycling Peaks workout files. Give me some idea what you want so I can select the right files to send. I have a mix of group rides, recovery rides and intervals. As I said above, I haven't done any MP tests or a full-out TT.

I'm a Cycling Peaks user too. Since I don't really know what I want, can you just send me whatever you have? Maybe zip it up save space.

 

[RapDaddyo]

I'm a Cycling Peaks user too. Since I don't really know what I want, can you just send me whatever you have? Maybe zip it up save space.

Well, I'll select a few rides and send you the files with a brief description of the ride (group ride, interals, recovery ride, etc.) and the topography.

 

[palewin]

One group probably averages ~250w and the other probably averages ~300w. I haven't been in shape to ride with either group until now and I'm still not ready for the faster group.

RD (& other posters) - Just curious: is your PT set up to measure power only when pedaling, or "true" avg power, including coasting? (The PT set up allows either option.) The avg group ride numbers seem very high, since I just came back from my usual (when I'm not racing) Sunday GR (almost all cat3 racers, mostly late 30s to mid 40s, at 58 I'm the group's grandfather...) and my PT (which includes coasting in the avg) only shows an avg of 152 watts for the 60 miles (which were not covered at an ambling pace!) My crit avg power (and, again granted that these are age group races, but with enough age group nat'l champs that it isn't the slowest group around) is only around 200 watts (and yes, I'm there in the finishing sprint). So those group ride numbers just seem really high to me. One thing which does tend to mess up numbers is that we all post absolute watts, when watts/kg would be better. I keep thinking that your target of 300 watts before you return to Masters racing seems super-high, but at your target weight of 165 that is 4 watts/kg, which I can then compare to my numbers at 138 lbs (where 4 w/kg is 250 watts, about 10-15 watts above my 1-hr sustainable - at least not an entirely different ballpark!). By the way, for the original poster, I've seen about a 10% gain in sustainable power between early in the season and now, and that's following a structured CTS training plan (meant not as an endorsement for CTS, rather to indicate that whatever power increase there is hasn't been a "random" event, but the result of planned training).

 

[RapDaddyo]

RD (& other posters) - Just curious: is your PT set up to measure power only when pedaling, or "true" avg power, including coasting? (The PT set up allows either option.) The avg group ride numbers seem very high, since I just came back from my usual (when I'm not racing) Sunday GR (almost all cat3 racers, mostly late 30s to mid 40s, at 58 I'm the group's grandfather...) and my PT (which includes coasting in the avg) only shows an avg of 152 watts for the 60 miles (which were not covered at an ambling pace!)

My PT is set up to include zeros for watts averages, or "true power" as you call it. My average power for group rides reflects the fact that I go to the front and push the pace on every climb and on every upwind segment and a few others as well. Typically, these pushes are ~275w-325w. If I stayed in the pack, my average power on group rides with my current group would be closer to 150w. The other two groups I discussed above ride much faster than my current group. I'm just trying to get in shape to stay with them.

My crit avg power (and, again granted that these are age group races, but with enough age group nat'l champs that it isn't the slowest group around) is only around 200 watts (and yes, I'm there in the finishing sprint). So those group ride numbers just seem really high to me. One thing which does tend to mess up numbers is that we all post absolute watts, when watts/kg would be better. I keep thinking that your target of 300 watts before you return to Masters racing seems super-high, but at your target weight of 165 that is 4 watts/kg, which I can then compare to my numbers at 138 lbs (where 4 w/kg is 250 watts, about 10-15 watts above my 1-hr sustainable - at least not an entirely different ballpark!).

I'm envious of your weight. Actually, we should probably recruit future TdF winners from thoroughbred jockey school. And yes, I don't think I will get anything other than a receipt for my entry fee if I don't increase my 1 hr power to >4w/kg, at least out here in the So Cal district. Like they say in that golf commercial, "These guys are good."

 

[RapDaddyo]

...those group ride numbers just seem really high to me.

I may have failed to mention it, but the group that rides at what I think is an average power of 300w is basically a Pro/1/2 group with a few Cat3s. I've talked with them and they suggested that I start riding with them in the late Fall, when they will have slowed down a bit for the winter. Right now they are still racing this season and their training rides are basically race pace. Also, they don't wait. From my early riding experience, I believe nothing is better for one's development than riding with a group that really pushes one. But, I'm not sure it is either physically or mentally good for me to get dropped in the first few miles. I have the (extreme) luxury of three different groups that leave from within 15 minutes of my house, each of which rides at a different pace. I'm working my way up the food chain.