matagi said:
If you are trying to prove a point, then you will quote statistics which support your contention - this is equally true for government agencies as it is for the NRA. We are all governed by self-interest to varying degrees.
Sorry if I buried my point, which was: we are frequently told that apparent increases in crime may not be so, as there have been changes in methology. This leaves the possibility that the figures should be comparably higher, lower, or are spot on.
Analysis shows that US firearms murders are often overestimated by some 10% in published data as the data do not reflect trial outcomes, where homicides are ruled justifiable
http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg01003.html. Of course so-called "civilian legal defense homicides" (CLDHs) can exist only where use of a firearm in self-defense is a legally possible outcome.
The AIC report also notes that data are as initially reported, not after final investigation and judgement. AIC also notes that up to a 20% difference in homicide rates can be assessed depending on the data/methods used
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi2/tandi261.pdf
matagi said:
The changes implemented after Port Arthur were designed to minimise the risk of another mass killing involving a firearm. Since the law was changed, there have been no other such events and this is taken as a sign that the change in law has been successful. Of course, one could also argue that the reason there have been no more events like Port Arthur is due to the fact that nobody has felt like grabbing a gun and heading down to the mall to take out a few fellow citizens.
I think we both acknowledge that the scarcity of a rare event is not a very good indicator of the success of measures enacted to further reduce a rare event. It would be quite extraordinary if laws could have been targeted to specifically address mass killings. Our Nat'l Acad of Sciences hasn't been able to find any effect of our thousands of gun laws (I present two 'spins' from either side of the issue below. One could argue that our laws have not been significant enough in scope to achieve any outcome, let alone targetting of specific ends.
A near-complete ban on semi-automatic firearms after Port Authur may seem like a minor change in laws along the 80yr course of gun-control in AUS, but is seen as a major change in laws by US observers - and hardly specifically targetting mass killings. In the US, that would be akin to the "nuke them all and let Allah sort them out" concept of Middle-East peace negotiations.
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi2/tandi261.pdf
http://www.joycefdn.org/programs/gunviolence/gunviolence-fs.html?content=/programs/gunviolence/content/zspots/dec04nasguns.html
matagi said:
I have no idea how much detail the FBI and AIC get when the various law enforcement agencies provide their raw data. If you analyse the data with respect to location, demographic etc. etc. then things may well be getting better except for certain subgroups who are disproportionately represented in the statistics - I am speculating here, because I really don't know and I don't think that sort of information is widely publicised.
I see your point and think it valid. Still, the public and lawmakers see the summary charts on page one and primetime TV, but the caveats offerred thereafter on page 25 and talkshow radio don't much correct interpretations. Those who publish these charts and tables would be fools if they think they can qualify the data as not reflecting reality after the fact, or lairs if they biased the charts and tables with obscure footnotes to be added thereafter.